shmerl: The point is, there is no clear way to estimate it globally, so tossing around numbers like 1% or etc. is useless. You can estimate it
locally, i.e. such as GOG measuring OS usage of their own site visitors, HB measuring purchases stats and so on.
Desktop users didn't reject anything. The vast majority of them don't ever make a choice about what OS to use. They use what's coming preinstalled with the computer. And MS abused its monopoly to force computer manufacturers to bundle Windows. This had been going for years. Despite WIndows doing maaany things very wrong.
shaddim: I don't believe this assumption from the 90s anymore that the users are just forced by market power to use windows or the preinstallation problem as main reason for the minimal adoption. And that if the users would be brought in contact with linux (like it is now!) they would love it and instantely migrate. I believe the main problem for linux ... is linux itself. The inability to overcome some legacies like the unix roots and being still developer/hacker focussed (users don't want and don't need to become hackers... linux has to adapt not the users). Or the inability to unite the distros and form a linux platform. The missing long time binary comaptiblity. The missing of a unified and standardized multimedia framework (some DirectX alternative (no OpenGL is not enough)), the missing standardized GUI API ... Described recently by several linux gurus ... e.g.
Molnar Despite you think it, OpenGL is a really fair competitor to Direct X, especially considering it runs on pretty much every platform. Don't forgot that OS X don't run Direct X too, nor Android, iOS and so on. Actually, something already running on OS X don't require lots of works to run on Linux as origins are similar.
And about the preinstalled windows on sales is a real problem. I'm at university and we use Linux every day, we know it a lot. But UEFI with secure boot required by Microsoft and dual boot possibilities because of Microsoft's egoistic behavior are really a problem in these cases.
Lastly, the "non-unity" of distros as about desktop environnement as it seems you're unhappy about this and think it's a problem,
NO it's a
strenght because it bring choice to the user and he's this way able to have the environement the most suitable for him.
The only one problem appearing now for a couple of months is that Canonical is becoming a problem and split the community (read about MIR/Wayland polemic where they create another display server different of the one the others are working on. The main problem is that maybe AMD/nVidia will follow them).
shmerl: Windows bundling problem from the 90s didn't go anywhere, no matter how weird it seems these days. If you go to any Dell / HP whatever on-line store and try buying any model without an OS or with a free one, you'll get nowhere (try it yourself and see, it takes just a minute). Only very few models if ever have such options. However it can differ in local stores. For example in China the situation is much better with free OS options for consumers.
To not quote something worse : I bought something like 10 months ago a Dell laptop for my sister preinstalled with Ubuntu (professional model). Never saw a Linux installation with that much proprietary drivers and so on (even a driver and its patch !) and it was a 11.10 while 12.10 was available or latest LTS 12.04. Did a format and tried to install something else. Fedora, Debian, earlier Ubuntu, Archlinux. Lots of drivers problems. Sad if you consider that
- The laptop was shipped with Ubuntu but with a very bad work from Dell with proprietary stuff
- My old Dell lapop from 2005 was running perfectly out-of-the-box, nothing to do. Same about my father's one from 2009. Really bad evolution from them.