Posted December 13, 2016
morolf: I wonder what happens after the end of the battle of Aleppo. But in any case, Assad's regime seems to be secure now, interesting development.
rtcvb32: Assad has said he will step down when it is time. Let's assume he leaves 3 years after ISIS is fully removed, that would be enough time to get the city (and country?) stable, get protections and everything in order before leaving. I watched an interview something like a month ago and he put out some really good points and explanations for what was going on. Will he keep his promise? Don't know, but if he steps down or is removed before ISIS is removed, then likely chaos and more issues will crop up.
The fundamental issue seems to be that Syria is fractured by ethno-religious divisions (though not totally, there are quite a lot of Sunnis on Assad's side apparently as well) which can only have become more bitter through the experience of civil war...I'm not sure there really is a good solution for a country like Syria. The fear of minorities that only the dictatorship prevents them from being at the mercy of an illiberal Sunni majority doesn't seem totally unreasonable to me.