pay attention, son

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ON AUTOPSIES AND A SANDWICH MADE OF SCUM


# On Flocke's demise #

So Flocke has been confirmed Town. Everything in his posts was showing that. The question is, why nobody else noticed, or pretended not to notice? Even the lurking was completely different from Caesar's: Caesar has posted sparingly, but shows he has read the thread. Then, when he does talk, he stays within the obvious. Flocke, on the other hand, has shown that he was a true newbie, confused about the mechanics and about everything that the veterans were saying, sometimes in a contradictory way. Also, in his last long posts he has shown a disconnection with the game: he was quite lost in the end, and not very motivated to proceed. Lynchalicious, they must have thought.

Who have been more vocal against him: yogsloth, SPF. Then, trent, who hammered without allowing for more discussion, when there was still one full day before the deadline.


# Learning from SPF's autopsy #

Things that had led to SPF smelling like fish three days old in a sunny week of July (joppo better think of december ;-)

- Detached stance, little presence, inane posts, low profile on Day 1.
- Changing his register completely (maybe JoeCarr noticed this, as this is part of his method?) for charging against Micro/Flocke (if the memory does not fail) on Day 2. Plus, he was making no sense and Flocke was clearly Town, for the reasons enumerated above.
- Also in his change of register: lots of nonsense in D2. He as most restricted on D1.
- His slip with the suspicion numbers for the matrix. All of us have put lots of care when writing those numbers. When he casually mentioned that ConsulCaesar was OK and whatnot for him, he was called out for the fact that he had given Caesar a 0.7 before that. Circumstancial, but it added to the concoction.
- Flocke being confirmed a Townie. That was the last nail. Personally, SPF had become a 0.7-0,8, paired with... who?

And now... after the openings, the conclusion:


# A sandwich made of scum #

So, things have been piling up. Unless heavy evidence proves the contrary, the train of circumstances breaks down like this:

Kindly take a look at yogsloth's post #595. In that post, he was the VERY FIRST to point a finger at Flocke as a lynching target, while keeping the pressure on Micro. Afterwards, he went straight for Flocke (effectively starting a second bandwagon), while saying all the time that his priority was Micro. Then he retreated, as the bandwagon was already started. And he does not even appear in the final lynching bandwagon for Flocke, while his last posts pre-lynch are something as lukewarm as saying that he would hammer if required. Those who do not examine his posts carefully will miss these details. Here we have a skillful manipulation of the crowd and engineering of bandwagons.

What was happening besides that? trent started Micro's bandwagon. Yogsloth joined swiftly. They support each other in very evident ways, and yes, they were using code. Flocke noticed that. Flocke was lynched by them. One started the bandwagon, the other hammered.

The funny thing was that yogs sustained that Micro (our soon-to-be-confirmed-or-not IC) is scum, and that Flocke not hammering meant he was scum, linking them (without maning any sense, really). By inverting the lynching order, and because Micro's claim had given pause to many, it was possible for scum to lynch one (Flocke) and then go and say, "Well, but Micro is scum". And this is what has happened. Without any self-cricitism about starting the momentum against Flocke, he boldly proceeds with his declared plan to lynch Micro before D4. See, he absolutely proclaimed that scum does not bus this early in the game. Then, we have found SPF on Micro's bandwagon, AND HE HAS NOTHING TO SAY ABOUT THAT. HIGHLY ILOGICAL.

And we are not even considering here other facts like over-reactiveness, overacting, or sulking for just being in the sights of four of us. But of course mafia theory (at least from mafiawiki) says that appearing upset/angry works better than appearing sad. Not even Micro, our miracolously un-lynched survivor, has offered such a show (on the contrary :-)

So here you have, a sandwich that several townies swallowed entirely. Started by scum, finished by scum, and maybe with a hostile neutral in the middle. While the other scum stayed in Micro's bandwagon, so that not all eggs remain in the same basket. Yummy? Dunno, not all of us ate from that sandwich. But NOW is the time to do something about it.

Yamato volley yogsloth

yogsloth's number just came up. <i>Votus </i>yogsloth for the win. Now is the time.

Will wait for clues that indicate the contrary, but, so far, they are nowhere to be seen, sadly (since he will be missed, alas, but, guess what, RWarehall is missed, too, the game is this cruel)

Fk YEAH! Now just however many more to go. :)

(I wonder who got them and why, though........and why we had no NK...but a victory is a victory :))

(@OP: Above is NOT a vote...though one will follow a bit further down in this post)
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This is true enough, and I agree 100%.
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That they likely did.

Also a sidenote: I will be starting a wagon(a "gut feeling" came up) near the end of this post(if it hasn't been started already...I am still reading posts)...so watch for it and read what it says carefully. ;)

Eh, I am sick of vanilla atm......can I have another flavor instead? ;D
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I have tried telling you in the past, so i'll say it once more: Go check my prior posts for why I think agent isn't likely to be scum...if you need a specific post number lemme know.
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I think I have a good feeling I know how he feels about Micro and also the death from last "night"(Read the end of this post for more on that and my vote).
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Maybe, but I don't think scum would put themselves in the public spotlight so easily/readily.....also I have a bigger suspect in mind atm(details and my vote at the end of this thread, so pay close attention to it and the rest of this post).
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Why do I feel this bit is less than genuine?

(To all: Pay attention to this bit and my vote below, plus the rest of this post)

(@OP: Above is NOT a vote....though one is coming a bit further down this post)


You'd LIKE that, wouldn't you? o.0

(@OP: Above is NOT a vote....one is coming even further down this post, though)
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I think I might have some info to share on a "good feeling" on who to vote for....my vote/explanation to follow below near the end of this post.
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I am sorry, had IRL to take care of and just got on the game here/read all my PMs/etc about 15 minutes back.....and since then i've been trying to determine how best to move forward.

The following(and this post) are likely going to put me in the crosshairs(so read it carefully...all replies to all people, my vote, etc), so I had to be sure of what to do next.
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That said/To OP:

Votus Yogsloth

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To all fellow town: I am 101% sure Yog is SCUM....and for why I feel such read my prior posts, everyone(especially my fellow town players), and especially read the ending bit of post 891 CAREFULLY for my reasons for such.

If anyone that's also town wants any further clarification on what I mean in the paragraph above(and cannot figure out what it all means as it is written yet, for some reason), let me know.

First off, a nicely done post here....the layout, wording, etc....very good. That said:

I don't have any reads one way or the other on Caesar, but I tried to give Flocke a chance to explain himself so we'd have time to get another wagon going if possible, but by that point there was little time...it was sadly either vote him, Micro(who I don't think is likely to be lying atm given what I "feel strongly" about Yog now that D3 has started), or likely go to nolynch.

I wanted to help the veteran town players out so I tried to get us ANY lynch, and sadly the only viable one(I still had some slight doubts as to him being town, so imo it was still a valid lynch from my POV before the flip) was Flocke's right near the deadline. :\

I have some slight doubts on Trent being another scum, as hammering puts people in the spotlight & I don't think a scum would be so ballsy....though yes, I could be wrong.

With YOG and maybe one other(or more...I don't know how many scum would be in this setup, or if someone told me I likely forgot).

Nice analysis/etc..... -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------------

To all: So with the above and the one I made before this(Post 919) it should be all but clear who to vote for and what I meant by these posts.....if anyone wants further info lemme know so we can try our best to win this one. :)

(@OP: The above link and paragraph are NOT votes...though I did make a vote in post 919)

Explain, daddy.


Paranoid Gun Owner. A role that kills everyone who visits them at Night. Dangerous for Town-PRs, but also dangerous for scum killers. A difficult to play role, if one doesn't want to endanger Town. However, it is one of the possible explanations of one scum and no one else dying at Night. Either SPF tried to kill someone who had the Power to kill him first. Or the NK was re-directed to SPF. Or SPF was about to kill someone but was killed himself by someone whose kill resolved quicker than the scum NK, wherefore SPF couldn't perform anymore.

No need, imo....go read(carefully) posts 919 and 920 & the vote I placed, and then connect the dots. ;)

Musing: IMO Yog is running scared and wants to get rid of a town PR to avoid them being vetted on D4(As Micro said he would be).

Unvotus Microfish

Votus yogsloth

All of my thoughts on the game are available in crystal clarity in scum chat. I hope everyone has a chance to read it, especially 296-322.
Hopefully it will spark some constructive discussion in post-game.

Loved playing with you guys! Toodle-oo!

Well-played, sir.

Votus yogsloth

Okay. I think I understand where you've been coming from.

Oh wait hahaha no I don't.


---

I've been struggling to understand Yogsloth from the beginning. I wanted to see how his reads flipped, because I needed to make the decision if he was narrow-focused town, or leading-the-marching-band scum. There's a dragon building on him right now, which I'm tempted to join. On the one hand, I find it hard to believe that scum-yogsloth can see much merit in still going after microfish... but I can't really see why town yogsloth thinks so either. GameRager is101% certain though, and it' hard to argue with that.

Allyourbasearebelongtous Yogsloth


---

I went and got SirP's reads list. I'll attach the names and put them in an order.

Hm. Not as enlightening as I hoped. He puts Yogsloth as a 0.6, which I can see he might be tempted to do to distance from a scumbuddy. He also puts me and Schnee at 0.6, and I know neither of us are his scumbuddies.

Would the scum be brazen enough to try and sway the system?
If the point of this was to establish by numbers who the most likely people to lynch are, then would giving your scumbuddies low enough scores skew the data in their favour, even if others were giving them higher-than-average scores?
Sorry Carradice, I've not been keeping up with how your system actually works - would the above be possible?

Would SirP think of it and do it? I'm not sure he would.
Would he put one of his scumbuddies in his top-rank? I'm not sure he would either.

Personally, I think Trent, Lifthrasil and Carr are likely to be mafia - Lifthrasil and Carr based on claims or claim-fragments. Trent based on his relationship with Yogsloth this game. - I'm assuming Yogsloth is mafia here. If not I'd like to re-think Trent.


Beginning to ramble so I should quit now, and go to bed.

But I'm gonna guess SirP's scumbuddies are Yogsloth and.... Pooka, why not?

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PRE-POST EDIT

Okay - Yogs has self-voted.

unvotus Yogsloth

Can somebody explain to me what it means?

Carr? You seem to make something of it?

Essentially what I meant was(in a not-so-subtle way) that there's no chance he's town, and I came to this "conclusion" when D3 started......get what I mean? ;)


Really? You don't see it yet?

Read post 923....Yog essentially(but needlessly) outed himself as scum(he said to read the scum chat after the game, and mentions post numbers to look at at that time) already.

Yogsloth isn't one to try to erase the writing on the wall.

Is Yogsloth a Jester?
I tend to take the don't-worry-about-jesters-because-there's-nothing-you-can-do-about-them approach to playing.

Is Yogsloth sulking because people are voting for him?
It seems hard to believe, but some of you know him better than I do.

Is Yogsloth giving up because he thinks the jig's up?
It seems just as hard to believe, but again, some of you know his better than I do.

This.
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@Joe...forgot this bit: Read the end bit(underlined) of post 891, then my vote and the post that contains it(post 919). I dunno how I could make what I am saying any more clear short of putting up a billboard. :|

4 scenarios

1) Yogs is scum.
Pro: Reasons already mentioned by me on

previous Days, willingness to lunch me

against decent judgement, reasons mentioned

by others; he seems slightly different than

town!yogs.

NOTE:
This puts at odds my "yogs+gr = 2 scum"

theory (GameRager because of his vocalness as

per my theory mentioned previously) because I

doubt scum would buss that hard on what some

would call slim evidence--at least not this

early.
Then again, GameRager might be bussing this

early because he won't get scum points this

way. WIFOM.

2) Yogs is town being attacked by 1 or 2

scum (Carradice / GameRager or both).
Expect one or both to back off before lunch

or EOD because a) they were confused or b)

someone (me) was a better target.

2b) GameRager is scum.
Reasons include his vocalness, my pet pattern

(that sometimes shows of very vocal scum+very

silent scum.), gut feeling. Jumping on Yog's

wagon because it is early and convenient.

3) Carradice is scum.
He is so leaning-town that he raises flags in

my mind. He reminds me of how town scum!HSL

looked to me. (This is a compliment.)
Going the extra mile to look town without

resorting to LAMIST.

4. Nos. 1 + 3.
Re-read Nos1 & 2b and replace every instance

of "GameRager" with "Carradice."

If Yogs is town, which I doubt, does this

clear Trent of the "following" / vote hopping

pattern as put forth by FlockeSchnee?

Opinions please.

While I doubt it would happen, would scum!

Agent have Neighbourized another scum to give

them both town points?

Who is the 3rd & even 4th Scum? Caesar?

Trent? Pooka?

Thank you for the detailed explanation! I really appreciate it.

Whatever I have said in this game, I meant no insult or offense and deeply and heartfelt-ly apologize if I have given any. If I have offended in any way, please forgive me.
I have loved playing with you and hope to do so again in the near future, whether you are today's lunch or not. Also, please don't give up on this game.

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Pre-post edit: @Joe scum could have used this sophisticated list of Carradice's as a way of day-chat better than the usual "i'm leaning we try for this person" that teammates might follow. There might even be some sort of code worked out on N1 "the person I rate 0.X is the person we should go for."


Are self-votes allowed? What motive would someone have other than IRL piling up beyond control? Would scum do it after knowing their cover was blown to try and stop daychat and subsequent analysis/revealing of teammates?