I'm heading to bed. Good Luck, Pooka!
I need to reread Joe, but he is and has been iffy much of them game--not necessarily off for Joe, but somewhat...unusual.

I had Joe in the "leaning scum" list for his vote-happy history in the game (he was in all bandwagons as analyzed by Pooka). But his reasoning about Micro here (and how he would be insta-lynched anyway in D4 if he fake-claimed) is hard to refute.

The risk: assuming the game is 10 town / 4 non-town (either mafia or third party), we are currently at 9/4. If we mislynch and mafia gets a kill twice, we'd be at 7/4 on Day 3 and a risky 5/4 on Day 4 (where we'd have either a mod-confirmed townie or a sure lynch, unless mafia kills Micro first if he's town). Since Flocke is under high suspicion right now and will probably still be Day 3, we can consider going for him Day 2 and see what the situation on Day 3 is. Perhaps a cop gets a guilty investigation tonight and the problem solves itself.

(The numbers would be worse if there is a neutral with killing power, but there's no evidence so far).

@Flocke: give us your best to convince us you're town, this might be your last chance!

@Everybody not voting: you should take a stance or at least say who you're planning to vote, better not to leave this for Monday as work/RL might interfere.

@Micro: good to know you're willing to change your vote to prevent a no-lynch, don't forget to do it. Your current vote on yogsloth is basically a vote for no-lynch unless you are able to convince a lot more people to follow you (and that's why I took my vote off Lift Day 1 despite my suspicions). I don't trust your claim yet but as Joe and Carr said, for the time being you are more valuable alive.

With all of the above considered:

Unvotus Micro

Votus Flocke

Thanks! Also thanks for the bump.

Addendum:
By "he's scraping the bottom of the barrel with lOoK aT mE i'M sO tOwN," I'm not saying that Joe is looking LAMIST, I'm saying that Joe is leveraging LAMIST against me but barely anything else.

Also, shame on me for forgetting this.
Kryptonitus JoeSapphire

Cross-posted with Pooka.

Good luckus in the interview: Pooka

;)

Exactly. And he's opening a new train now without giving much reasoning behind it.

@Flocke: that's not how it works. If you want to convince everyone to lynch trent instead of yourself or Micro, you need to give reasons for that. And you clearly want to lynch trent, otherwise you wouldn't be voting for him. So, let's see your arguments.

We're not? Does that mean you'll switch back to Flocke eventually? I'll hold you to that!


@Pooka: yes, Joe is much less present than usual. He cites RL reasons for that, though. For now, I think Flocke is a better lead. He really seems to be unable to explain his refusal to hammer at the end of D1. By the way, SirP is also much less scumhunty than I would like him to be.

With the back and forth written here, nothing much changed. Only my conviction that Flocke is the better choice over Micro grew. The main pushers behind Micro's train are scummy themselves. So I'm not going with that. If Micro made a false claim, he will be found out one way or the other. If his claim is true, either scum will kill them, which means that the kill won't hit a stronger power that Night. Or he will make it to D4, where a confirmed player suddenly becomes a quite strong asset. So if Micro is Town and we leave him alive, he will present a problem for Scum.

I think we have ample time. ZFR said Monday evening in Europe (I assume Europe = GMT+2 unless specifically stated otherwise by him). It's currently 1:08PM in Europe. We have two whole days and a couple hours extra! Certainly enough time to make a turnaround to Joe. You guys had less and were still able to get a decent wagon on me.

Also thanks everyone, hopefully I land it!

If you feel jumping from one small wagon to another will do anything in the time we have left, then more power to ya. o.0
====================================================

Agreed, which is why I hope that(as one example) Carradice uses that chart of theirs and gets a vote in before deadline. :)
=====================================================

So you're starting a wagon not very likely to take off over possible OMGUS??? o.0

I DO hope if needed you help us avoid a nolynch as you said you would before, and that you sign on and get up to speed/make a decision on that sometimes before deadline. :)

Eh, I thought you veteran players were more attentive....if you check the post Flocke mentioned in that bit(Post 451) you'd see some of his reasoning for voting trent.

(Although I also think him starting a wagon on one post so late into D2 is a bit odd)

I will as well, but I also want to give Flocke as much time as we can before deadline(while still being able to lynch if need be) to explain his stances/actions more thoroughly...to be fair and all.

All fair points and thank you for reminding me to tell pooka about the fact that Joe did list IRL reasons for not posting much/etc.

@Pooka....see the above: Lift is right in that Joe has posted IRL reasoning why he cannot post much while Flcoke has not.

(@OP: The above is NOT a vote)

Sounds good/good points.
===========================================================

Still, making a wagon seemingly based on a sort of OMGUS(at least that's what it seemed like when I read your posts on it) and for little else(especially as Joe has at least given us IRL reasons for not posting much) seems a bit odd/likely "doomed" to fail.

Although yeah, it might happen, but I don't hold out much hope....also I don't want us to fracture again like yesterday....we need voting solidarity now more than before, imo.

1. I hope the stress has dissipated by now!
2, Good point, yet he had me as lock!town as he said, and we know he wasn't lying when he said that.
3. I don't recall? Anyway, I'd have an awful time trying to come up with something like this for myself.
3b. Also, i did not breadcrumb anything else.
4. Yes, it is useless until D4 and I am lunch on d4 as soon as enough folk get online if i am not confirmed. Which leaves you all with all the niggling doubt and none of the benefits.
5. skipping the bit about flavour as it was already mentioned.
6. Do you think Agent is town?
7. @Carradice Would you have thought agent town apart from his neighborizing you?
8. I do wish Flocke would tell us why he's been absent. IRL? Overwhelmed with the game? I appreciate his unvote, of course, but why did he not hammer me?

@GR I fear I am tunneling, but maybe it is a bit of OMGUS-based, but he just looks off, what with his generalizations that are blatantly false, etc.
I mean mid afternoon/early evening EST (probably not earlier than 8PM GMT unless something stands out like a spotlight).
I expect I would have voted before 6am GMT.

You keep gaining and losing points. You talk just enough I am concerned about you being the traffic director yet i agree with enough of your posts to make me doubt myself.
However, as Scene and others have stated, scum or F must preach the truth as often as possible, esp to get themselves looking good. Once they are proven to be purposely lying, they are useless. Therefore, you remain about the same. :/

Glad you enjoyed it. :D

Optimistic? What exactly does that have to do with anything? Sorry.

@Caesar
The above point of Scene, HypersomniacLive (HSL), Scene & many others is one reason I mistrust Joe. He preached good logic about the benefits of a D4 IC but posted what should have been obvious conclusions that don't hurt scum overtly.

The danger of a 3rd party N-luncher is they might be hanging about waiting to lull everyone into sleep. A non-aligned survivor is no threat to town, unless ZFR has this set up so only one team can win. However, this isn't my understanding of this game in general.

@Pooka--glad to accidentally bump! you're of course welcome!

SPF is more neutral that I recall. Usually he is silent or jokey and kinda like Flubbucket on D1 and cracks down when we actually see stuff going on (like now). Maybe is it all IRL issues, but I'm not going to discount a possibility that it might be more.

@Joe, will you continue to have internet at your new house?

Who is our 3rd lunch option? Caesar? Pooka? Both of them are tied for the 3rd highest on Carradice's handy excel sheet.

Wondering if I should change the forum to 30 or 50 pages per page. I'm already up to 41 pages for this thread. :O

I'm getting up in 3-4 hours so I really should go to bed this time. Gnight all.

I'll leave you with this:
===============================================================
===============================================================

Unofficial Vote Count (to the best of my halfway-skimming ability)

Flocke 5 - joppo, Lift, Joe, GameRager, Caesar
Micro 4 - agent, trent, yogs, SirPrimalform
yogs 1 - Micro
Trenonlf 1 - FlockeSchnee
JoeSapphire 1 - Pooka

Everyone else - 0
Not voting - Carradice,

13 Players. Takes 7 to lynch.

Flocke is closest at L-2

When you see a vote count, please take a moment to make sure your name is against the correct person.

Alright, so Joe has a solid reason for why he is inactive. Taking it out of the picture though, it still doesn't do much favors for him. And I'll go over them in a bit more detail.

As explained in this post, Joe was hopping votes like no tomorrow on Day 1. His voting on Agent was especially suspect.

The part that you think is "OMGUS" actually has nothing to do with him suspecting me and more to do with his reasons for suspecting me being reliant on incredible lAmiSt. In #504 what strikes him is...my usage of words such as "we'll never know." In #588 he says he was expecting a different reaction from me for one of his questions, and instead of getting something emotional I got him a "neat argument." #777 he also focuses on semantics, that is my usage of "we" and "they."

The short takeaway from the above paragraph, is that his arguments against me aren't built on the meat of what I want to say, it's built on the words I wrote down. I'm more than welcome to him questioning why I'd want to vote so or so, or why I think this person looks off, but he does nothing but "what do you mean by 'we' here" and "look, your usage of 'we' and 'they' appears natural here!" This is uselessness incarnate.

So I'm more than happy to see his flip. I want to know if he's scum just skirting by as I suspect he is or Town with bad arguments.

That still doesn't matter....as he didn't(and couldn't) know if you're town or not.....so him locking/reading you as town doesn't mean you ARE verified town or should be treated as such(well until D4 anyways).

You SURE? You don't wanna say that now and then later on tell us there's more you forgot to let us know about re: crumbs.

It's for this reason that if you live till D4 I hope people wait till Op comes on and see if Op says anything before voting you.
(@OP: Above is NOT a vote)

Dunno about him but i've had agent in my likely town pool since the start of D2 or so, somewhere around the posts 591 and 620 I believe.

(Or maybe before)

Now Carradice....him I have a tiny bit less faith in. I DO lean him town atm due to his charts and such, but to me he is more of an unknown quantity**.

(**Though I think him also somewhat likely to be town, though not as much as agent atm)

I've been wondering that since I saw those posts.

Fair enough...we likely all tunnel to some extent sometimes.

If you mean your vote for D2 then that sounds good....I hope to see you then.

Well that's to be expected, given how I play/etc, and also your play is good town play(suspecting everyone who has not been confirmed to varying degrees)

That we win...as in I was slouching due to not wanting to conform to your request due to being a rebel IRL by nature, and saying my slouching wasn't due to me not being optimistic that we'd win the game.

(Also next time, if you could, please quote the post bits a bit/etc so I know what each bit is supposed to go with. ;D)

Pooka and Flocke are pushing two new wagons atm, with IIRC one vote each.

OMG, that's no good...go get some sleep mister! *points to dorms*

Nite. :)

(@OP: Above is NOT a vote)
=================================================

That seems fair and reasonable...all I was trying to ask/point out is that his IRL issues/the fact he posted them be taken into account and weighed against Flocke's lack of telling us such. :)

Tbf I also hopped around a good amount as well......though yes, everyone not verified town should be scrutinized equally by all town.

Fair points.

Still, he might not get close to enough votes "today", so make sure to be ready to change votes to help us get a lynch when the time comes if need be.

Will be posting shorly. Long post half-finished. You know whom the vote was going to be for, don't you ;-)

@SPF: Corrected, @ConsulCaesar from 0.7 to 0.5 Kindly check the column under your name in blue, to see if there are any more mistakes...

Right now, @ConsulCaesar appears the third most scummy in the general opinion, with @yogsloth and @Pooka trailing behind.

Yes, indeed. At first, he looked like he might be cheeky scum. After the joke was explained, he went to 0.5 and, from this side of the Quidditch field, it looked like neigher @Lift nor @agent were scum. Then, his claimed name befit the role in a clear but not overly evident way. Plus, the role itself was itself easy to confirm and not likely to belong to scum, no matter if people want to lose their time and energy making WIFOM of everything, all the time. So, from then on, he was solid Town. Personally, after the connection, he has become the surest Town possible after a ZFR-confirmed IC. It would be necessary very heavy evidence for this opinion to change. He might be an asset in the late game.

@GR: you know, a matrix is nothing but a list, especially arranged for extra clarity. It was a revolutionary invention, though.

_____________________

OPINION

Summarizing two cases, since the prosecution seems to be too busy to do it properly.

On @FLocke: what's the case? the hesitation at voting that (most should agree) might fall squarely into what is to be expected of a new player at the end of D1. Then, someone who seems busy. Anything else that has been missed?

On @Microfish: an initial bandwagon that was quickly amassed in order to prevent a NL, when @agent's bandwagon dissipated. The spark was a post of someone who seeemed to be fishing. Later, @RWarehall pointed out he believed it was not solid. After re-reading, many have agreed that they do not think he was fishing anymore. Yet some still vote for him. In D2 he has claimed. In two game days, he might become an asset.

Opinion: On @Flocke, he pointed a finger on @yogsloth and @trent early. Then, said players charge against him at the first opportunity. The player is new and busy and appears to be lynchalicious. He is not fighting much, either.
On @Micro: the momentum of his bandwagon because of the allegued fishing did not stop when people changed their minds. The best arguments that have been provided have been 'uh, let us lynch someone'. Especially, the burden of the proof has been turned over him to make him prove he is innocent. How in the world can you do that. Even if he was a doctor, some would argue that he is a mafia doctor or what, like with the neighbouriser.
It would be a great, great surprise here if that bandwagon is not padded with scum.

Who have been more vocal against @Micro and @Flocke? Appart from said players, @SPF, which has been surprising.

If there is no case, what are the reasons for a townie to stay on those bandwagons? Maybe some of the following:
- Staying with the crowd (a good reason for scum at this stage, even if @Micro was scum, which is to be doubted).
- "Better him than me".
- "Let's lunch someone".
- Bored.
- Too lazy or busy to do anything else.

In any case, lynching townies knowingly looks like a self-destroying Town.

Impressions:

Most rational posts: those of @Joe, @Lift. The have dared having their own voice, especially @Joe. In this respect, @RWarehall is missed.

In the comfort zone of detachment and staying in the very comfortable middle of the scale of every radar: too many.

Allowing themselves to be herded: too many.

Suggestions:

Give @Micro a chance. The case against him does not exist, he has made a claim that will be confirmed and he has been fighting the good fight, kudos for that.

It can be understood that some are upset at Flocke being absent (maybe he ought to have considered a sub?), though.

Start going after someone who looks scummy, including those who publish just inane posts and go with the crowd without providing rationales for their acts. If they have believably fishing, acting fishy... you can build your own list and go after the offenders. It is NOT Day 1 anymore. Gloves off.


Idus Martiae Caesar

Nader, right?

Or Dwight D. Eisenhower perhaps? I also like Ike ;)