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General discussionHarry Potter and GOG Mafia #64(1552 posts)(1552 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted February 14, 2020
Hmmm Not much to post right now, somehow there was very little activity today. My office's provider screwed up internet access the entire morning and I was worried of how much I would have to read to catch up... I'm relieved it's very little.

The situation hasn't changed regarding my vote on Flocke, so it's not like I need to add anything. In fact he appears an even better lynch now, after promising "to come back one of these days to post something". I'm gonna give the benefit of the doubt here, but honestly I find it hard to believe that he will manage to avoid the lynch unless an even better wagon sprouts out of thin air or Micro's gets on track
(or he claims "my name is harry potter the chosen one and i am a superpowered PR that can blah blah blah..")

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Carradice: A possible approach:
Consider the four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1. None is scum (the one @Caesar mentioned).
Scenario 2. Both are scum.
Scenario 3. @Micro is scum and @Flocke is a townie.
Scenario 4. @Flocke is scum and @Micro is a townie.

Think where scum might more likely be, in each of those cases. Remember it for later.
Hmmm it could be... I've been thinking about it but honestly I haven't arrived at any conclusion. In every scenario I can imagine a strategy I would devise if I were in scum's shoes that would put me in and another out of their wagons. I think we will know more only after a flip.

Also, unfortunate as it is, Flocke is getting close to a situation where it wouldn't matter. When a town player lurks it is a disservice to town - they don't help find the scum and they don't provide any behaviour we can analyze to conclude whether we're dealing with scum or town. And scum benefit from being invisible.

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Carradice: Also: 'Worser'? Hardly! Unless we are speaking pseudo-Elizabethan :D
Worser, yes. Let's review how the worseness scale goes. Repeat after me:

Worse < Worser < Worserer < Worserest < Worcestershire
Posted February 14, 2020
My brain is unable to untangle this mess, so I will just go with what I have already said:
"I should have voted trentonlf" (post 451)
and
"I want to at least go out while voting for whom I want to vote for." (post 568)

Votus trentonlf.

(Optional Information bit:
My previous post was made Thursday (13.02.2020, approximately 23:00 o'clock) my time. Right now I have Friday, 14.02.2020, approx. 21:00 o'clock.)

I will check back in on the weekend (both days, my time) and try to answer possible questions, if anyone has any and if I can answer them.

I will be at work at the time of deadline.
Posted February 14, 2020
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JoeSapphire: oh! went back and checked and I saw that the reason SirP posted an unintelligable string of numbers and then criticised my formatting wasn't for lols but because carradice requested particular formatting so the data could be better fed into the horrifying matrix.

Carradice - Is it the same formula that decides what netflickses I should watch, what spotifies I should listen to and what scentojams I should smell?

Sorry for not paying attention.
Indeed! But you forgot Youtube videos!! No problem, it was clear and readable.

Right now, updating with Trent's comments (since he mentioned he does not mind).
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@GR: Nice that you liked the post. Did you find the 'layman explanation' adequate? Just look someone up in the pink file, then move right, see all the flak the poor guy is receiving, then, if the number in the columns of the the right is in the red or deep orange, the guy is in trouble. That's the basics.
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SirPrimalform: Seems a few people are listing Pooka and Caesar as would-lynches. I'm not sure I see what they're seeing to be honest.
=> However, in post #638, you were considering him scummy? (a 0.7). Maybe there was some kind of mistake? :3

Mentioning in case it needs correction.
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@yogsloth and anyone interested:

In case it helps for your lynching needs, the list of people considering Flocke and Micro scummy can be found in the chart, moving from their names (in pink) to the right. As you know, all cells in red belong to people who think them less than town. Moving up you can find the name of the potential ally for the next good, higienic, lynching.

Added in parenthesis: people who might switch their vote.

Flocke 4 - joppo, Lift, Joe, GameRager (+ SPF, yogsloth, trent, Caesar, Micro, agent)
Micro 4 - agent, trent, Caesar, yogsloth (+ SPF, Lift, GR, joppo, Pooka, agent)

(The same for other candidates.)

Not voting - SPF, FlockeSchnee, Carradice, Pooka
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JoeSapphire: The scum would want a Day-Four-Innocent-Child dead because confirmed-town become powerful if the number of scum dwindle.
So they would have to eventually kill microfish themself if he does, indeed, become confirmed in two Days (unless we manage to not kill enough scum to get to endgame).
So honest-microfish being alive is good.

Dishonest microfish being alive isn't too much of a problem: When Day 4 comes round he gets lynched.
Good point there. This hurry to lynch @Micro is hard to understand. If he has lied, his days are counted. Exactly, he might be lynched at the very beginning of D4, hammered and all. On the other hand, if he is NOT scum, Town might be much stronger (unless scum gets to him first).
Attachments:
arith_1005_00.jpg (380 Kb)
Posted February 14, 2020
So, micro and flocke refuse to vote each other

Sending us towards another no-lynch

shocked

I am shocked, I tell you
Posted February 14, 2020
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yogsloth: So, micro and flocke refuse to vote each other

Sending us towards another no-lynch

shocked

I am shocked, I tell you
If you want to be more shocked I have a cattle prod...
Posted February 14, 2020
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Carradice: Mentioning in case it needs correction.
Good spot, that should be a 0.5. I guess this is why everyone else did it with labels. I think the rest are right?
Posted February 14, 2020
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FlockeSchnee: My brain is unable to untangle this mess, so I will just go with what I have already said:
"I should have voted trentonlf" (post 451)
That wouldn't really have helped, would it? There'd have been a no-lynch as well.


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JoeSapphire: The scum would want a Day-Four-Innocent-Child dead because confirmed-town become powerful if the number of scum dwindle.
So they would have to eventually kill microfish themself if he does, indeed, become confirmed in two Days (unless we manage to not kill enough scum to get to endgame).
So honest-microfish being alive is good.

Dishonest microfish being alive isn't too much of a problem: When Day 4 comes round he gets lynched.
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Carradice: Good point there. This hurry to lynch @Micro is hard to understand. If he has lied, his days are counted. Exactly, he might be lynched at the very beginning of D4, hammered and all. On the other hand, if he is NOT scum, Town might be much stronger (unless scum gets to him first).
So... thw plan would be: we'd have to lynch someone-not-Micro (guess who) before Monday, then find someone else during Day 3 (perhaps cop investigations will have found a guilty then) and then insta-lynch Flocke is he is not confirmed as innocent child on Day 4?
Posted February 15, 2020
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ConsulCaesar: So... thw plan would be: we'd have to lynch someone-not-Micro (guess who) before Monday, then find someone else during Day 3 (perhaps cop investigations will have found a guilty then) and then insta-lynch MICROFISH if he is not confirmed as innocent child on Day 4?
I fixed it for you.

Yes. The plan also allows for us to scumhunt, if we think waiting-around-for-a-cop-to-find-someone would be boring.
Posted February 15, 2020
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yogsloth: NOTE that GameRager "unvoted" microfish, despite having already done so days ago.
If I did unvote someone twice chalk it up to poor memory and not wanting to read back to make sure.

Also as for why i switched to Flocke....well as you said in post 788(more or less) both are as good lynch candidates for D2.

(Also also I note that you switched AGAIN back to Micro.....even when the wagon was building on Flocke.....I don't see this as scum per se, but I ask: Why?

Why not stick to the biggest wagon and help us get ONE of them lynched so we can avoid nolynch?
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SirPrimalform: Right, is the deadline monday? I see everyone is listing who they'd be willing to vote.

I'd be willing to vote for FlockeSchnee if they've not come back in much of a meaningful way by Monday, but at the moment I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.
I agree we should give them time to come back and explain themselves...but they haven't done much of that(BEYOND the post/Trent vote in the post a bit further on that I noted when looking ahead for such this time) & at least Micro has a claim(a weak one[role], even if true as i suspect, but still a weak one[role])....so why give them all the way till MONDAY(the deadline) to post more meaty/meaningful replies and explanations?

(To you/Micro/all: To be fair, though, I would also be willing to lynch Micro(even if town) so we can have a lynch to analyze and one that wouldn't harm town too much to lose......but I would rather we go after Flocke "today"....especially if they continue to not defend their actions on D1 and D2 and continue to not post much.)

(@OP The above is not a vote)
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ConsulCaesar: So... we need at least one of them dead (and then alignment-confirmed) to be able to start drawing conclusions?
We likely could do it without a lynch, but doing so helps us have a chance(albeit smaller than hitting a town) of hitting scum & also give the better town players a chance to analyze the wagon....even if the lynch is town or scum.

Also our cop(if worth their salt) would likely investigate the other who didn't get lynched, so we'd have two more or less confirmed(1 by all, 1 by the cop) out of two players.

I myself hope the lynched one is Flocke(mainly due to not hammering his suspect on D1 and not posting enough to show their reads/etc so far), as I also want to give Micro a chance to have his claim bear fruit: on N2/etc by the cop, or on D4 by OP(if he's telling the truth).
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JoeSapphire: The scum would want a Day-Four-Innocent-Child dead because confirmed-town become powerful if the number of scum dwindle.
So they would have to eventually kill microfish themself if he does, indeed, become confirmed in two Days (unless we manage to not kill enough scum to get to endgame).
So honest-microfish being alive is good.
Or they could let him live to sow confusion and hope town lynch him for them.

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JoeSapphire: Dishonest microfish being alive isn't too much of a problem: When Day 4 comes round he gets lynched.
The problem is if he's got an extra-powerful scum role that he's just trying to get two more days use out of.

But I think, looking at it so, the rewards outway the risks.

You disagree?
I myself also think Micro should be allowed to live, for the reasons I stated to Caesar in my reply to him in this post/reply....but if he's the only viable lynch(no one else gets close, not even Flocke) by the end of D2 then we have a choice to make....lynch him and have the better town players analyze the wagon/other data & hope we hit scum on D3/etc, or nolynch(likely a bad idea) and go into D3 like we did going into D2.

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JoeSapphire: He's busy putting on plays and hosting guests and moving house! I mentioned a few times this is a tough week!
Wait...you do PLAYS? Playwright? Actor? Amateur production or major company? Now you've made me curious. :)

(@OP: Above is NOT a vote)
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FlockeSchnee: My brain is unable to untangle this mess, so I will just go with what I have already said:
"I should have voted trentonlf" (post 451)
and
"I want to at least go out while voting for whom I want to vote for." (post 568)
But you might not have to "go out" if you'd just answer the questions posed to you several times over with convincing explanations(such as why didn't you hammer Micro[Vote Micro] on D1 when you had the chance?) and post a bit more, OR explain why you cannot post much.

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FlockeSchnee: I will check back in on the weekend (both days, my time) and try to answer possible questions, if anyone has any and if I can answer them.
I myself have actually asked the same one several times and even just above this bit in this same reply to you: Why didn't you hammer vote Micro on D1 when he was your suspect and you had the chance? What IRL is keeping you from posting as much/why don't you post much?

(Convincing answers to those might go a long way in convincing people not to vote for you)

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FlockeSchnee: I will be at work at the time of deadline.
Fair enough.....is that what keeps you from posting as much? If so please let us know so we know you have a valid reason IRL for not posting(as well as please try to answer my questions above and those of others if you could).
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Carradice: @GR: Nice that you liked the post. Did you find the 'layman explanation' adequate? Just look someone up in the pink file, then move right, see all the flak the poor guy is receiving, then, if the number in the columns of the the right is in the red or deep orange, the guy is in trouble. That's the basics.
A bit....though that chart still makes mongo's head hurt o.0(too much effort is needed by me to process it)...I rather like more simple "list form" reads lists(i.e. willing to vote lists like you had people do with just the numbers).

But for the more analytical town players, it is a boon, so thanks for that. :)

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Carradice: Not voting - SPF, FlockeSchnee, Carradice, Pooka
Beyond SPF(who voted a bit before your post here) and Flocke(who voted Trent around the time you posted) that's a good point here....why haven't you other two "lazy bones" voted yet? o.0

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Carradice: Good point there. This hurry to lynch @Micro is hard to understand. If he has lied, his days are counted. Exactly, he might be lynched at the very beginning of D4, hammered and all. On the other hand, if he is NOT scum, Town might be much stronger (unless scum gets to him first).
Wait, how is town much stronger if Micro lives and is town? His PR is very weak(or so it seems from my take on it), though maybe he could help us find scum among the survivors at that point.....is that what you mean?
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yogsloth: So, micro and flocke refuse to vote each other

Sending us towards another no-lynch

shocked

I am shocked, I tell you
I dunno about some of the others, but I have been trying to help by keeping on the largest wagon to help get us a lynch(barring the bit of leeway I gave flocke earlier for up to 24 IRL hours, and my giving leeway/some breathing room to Micro so he could claim/explain earlier)....there's not much more any of us can do except get all on the two main wagons to agree on one and/or hope the non voters eventually vote and get us to a lynch before deadline.
================================================================

Done to 800 and I am noting Flocke voted for a wagon not that likely to take off two IRL days before deadline and didn't explain much of anything or even post a reads list....make of that what y'all will.

(@OP: Above is not a vote)
Posted February 15, 2020
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ConsulCaesar: That wouldn't really have helped, would it? There'd have been a no-lynch as well.
That's part of why I really prefer Flocke as lynch over Micro atm.

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ConsulCaesar: So... the plan would be: we'd have to lynch someone-not-Micro (guess who) before Monday, then find someone else during Day 3 (perhaps cop investigations will have found a guilty then) and then insta-lynch Microfish if he is not confirmed as innocent child on Day 4?
Hopefully they will have by then...although the player pool is still large enough that that might be hard to pull off.

(Note to all: I corrected the word Flocke to Microfish in the above part to what I and Joe think Caesar likely meant, and also corrected the spelling mistakes from the original posts)

Also to all: C'mon guys/gals....POST.....I know some of you have been online in the past several hours, so I am assuming y'all can post a bit every now and then to, at the very least, keep me from having to play all by myself[and possibly die of boredom]. :D
Posted February 15, 2020
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GameRager: I dunno about some of the others, but I have been trying to help by keeping on the largest wagon to help get us a lynch(barring the bit of leeway I gave flocke earlier for up to 24 IRL hours, and my giving leeway/some breathing room to Micro so he could claim/explain earlier)....there's not much more any of us can do except get all on the two main wagons to agree on one and/or hope the non voters eventually vote and get us to a lynch before deadline.
Yeah, we're not gonna no-lynch Today. Don't worry.

My point was that the two of them refuse to vote for each other, because you know

scum
Posted February 15, 2020
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yogsloth: Yeah, we're not gonna no-lynch Today. Don't worry.

My point was that the two of them refuse to vote for each other, because you know

scum
At this point I might just get us to lynch if need be so we don't hit another no lynch.....though I still prefer Flocke/hope they are the lynch for D2, and will keep my vote on them unless Micro gets right up to hammer distance before deadline(giving others ample time to possibly get my preferred lynch lynched or for Flocke to[if town] prove themselves town somehow and thus convince me to go with Micro).

Also if Micro read this: Sorry bro.....I want Flocke as lynch for D2 atm, but if that won't happen and no other wagons get close to lynch then you(even if town as I suspect a bit) would likely be the best choice...what with your seemingly weak PR and all.
Posted February 15, 2020
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SirPrimalform: Right, is the deadline monday? I see everyone is listing who they'd be willing to vote.

I'd be willing to vote for FlockeSchnee if they've not come back in much of a meaningful way by Monday, but at the moment I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

I'm still not really convinced about Micro, would lunch. In fact

Votus potus Microfish(d)

Seems a few people are listing Pooka and Caesar as would-lunches. I'm not sure I see what they're seeing to be honest.
I'd be willing to vote Flocke, even though I did have him barely leaning town just because a better candidate doesn't appear to be materializing but only to avoid a NL.

I had him at 0.45 because 1. I was unsure of him at EOD1, and 2. he didn't hammer me so I was returning the flavour.

(Also, I just got back online after about 24 hours offline, still catching up.)

As stated aptly by Caesar, if i live until D4 and am not confirmed, i become 1-minute Insta-Lunch.

Caesar was on my suspect list in part because of his near-complete lack of meaningful anything D1 & 1.5.

For that matter, what posts of substance have you made, SPF?
If my theory of a "scum in plain sight and another in the shadows" is correct, you are ambiguous enough to be that man-in-the-shadows, while Yogs or GR is the man in the street directing traffic.

meanwhile I still think Yogs is either tunneling horribly or 100% scum pretending to tunnel horribly.

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@Carradice - I loved the layman's explanation, thank you for it! It helps a lot.

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@Yogs you totally missed what I posted. As the very post above yours shows, I am willing to vote Flocke to prevent a NL. If he doesn't post enough by Sunday my time, and there are no other viable trains, I will reluctantly unvote you and then vote Flocke.
(Folks, notice that if I forget to unvote Yogs before voting Flocke, Yogs will probably criticize me/call me scum for lying or something. :( )

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@Joppo 796 I tend to agree, plus
rofl, thanks! (Does "most worserest/most worseterest" fit anywhere on the scale, or is it more of a byproduct?)

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@GR @ 804
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GameRager: snip
I tend to agree with this (and this tendency to agree with GR is what makes him less of a suspect to me than he otherwise would be).

Title:
[i]A Treatise Concerning Some Points on Innocent Childs, or
"The Only Reason My Role Would Be Any Good At That Point and Contemplations (Not of My Navel but) Tending--but Not Guaranteed-- to Be About the Role In General"[/i]

1. the pool would be smaller (8, iirc, if we lunch everyDay and have a corresponding NK)
2. Everyone but scum will be doubting everyone else at this point; a confirmed player can help clear things up by being removed from the list of possible scum.
If there is a conflict (similar to what might happen in late-stage SH, but different as this isn't that game), and one person is confirmed town (IC), the rest of the town will not vote that person, so
3. the IC will live to be a probable NK
4. other town players won't be reading the IC's posts from "is he scum or town talking here?" but will know the IC is town and read those posts accordingly.
NOW:
5. If the IC is a horrible player there is the very real chance that he will accidentally lead folks astray by thinking and publicly suspecting or outright stating that a person from one alignment (A) is the other (B) and vice-versa.
6. This causes (maybe) the other town to disagree with the IC's reads leading them to
7. Doubt their reads or
8. think the IC is maybe crazy.
9. If the IC is heavily pocketed, he might be allowed to live to sow more confusion among the other town (reference Nos. 5-8)
10. This role is really only as good as the player to whom it is assigned and the level of confidence others place in his reads and other posts.
11. It requires more work because others might rely on the IC and wrongly coast along.
12. Even if others aren't coasting (and not galloping but instead posting), they'll tend to post-haste give more weight to the IC's posts, ex-post-ulations & post-holes post-confirmation of said IC's position in that post.
13. Postscript: Am considering whether I used "post" too many times?"
14. I have decided the idea is pre-post-erous!
15. This list is getting rather long.
16. Maybe people are bored with reading it.
17. Maybe I should stop?
18. Can't stop just yet.
19. I'm glad I'm not a guidepost.
20. I shall end this bit of the post here.

@All of you--straighten up! Chests out, stomachs in, chins up, eyes forward! Make sure you have good posture!
:D :D :D

@GR Joe did soundstage stuff for a live theater in the Scottish high- or low-lands last summer.
Posted February 15, 2020
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Microfish_1: I'd be willing to vote Flocke, even though I did have him barely leaning town just because a better candidate doesn't appear to be materializing but only to avoid a NL.
Sounds good.....I think we should give Flocke one last chance to post some reads/explanations for their behavior before anyone does the hammering vote, though, but I also want to be sure we get a lynch "today" as well.

(Also that is a good chunk of the reason why you're my alternate lynch choice, btw)

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Microfish_1: I had him at 0.45 because 1. I was unsure of him at EOD1, and 2. he didn't hammer me so I was returning the flavour.
Don't you mean FAVOR?

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Microfish_1: (Also, I just got back online after about 24 hours offline, still catching up.)
Well then take your time and get your replies written out right and all your ducks in a row, so to speak. :)

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Microfish_1: As stated aptly by Caesar, if i live until D4 and am not confirmed, i become 1-minute Insta-Lunch.
Or on the rare chance you're a clever scum(not likely though, imo) then you'll be given essentially a free day or so to do what you will. o.0

(Well unless the town cop investigates you, that is)

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Microfish_1: For that matter, what posts of substance have you made, SPF?
If my theory of a "scum in plain sight and another in the shadows" is correct, you are ambiguous enough to be that man-in-the-shadows, while Yogs or GR is the man in the street directing traffic.

meanwhile I still think Yogs is either tunneling horribly or 100% scum pretending to tunnel horribly.
Tbh I think both of you might be tunneling a tad too much. ;D

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Microfish_1: @Yogs you totally missed what I posted. As the very post above yours shows, I am willing to vote Flocke to prevent a NL. If he doesn't post enough by Sunday my time, and there are no other viable trains, I will reluctantly unvote you and then vote Flocke.
Don't you mean saturday your time? I ask as sunday your time is(iirc) around close to deadline in OP's time.

Or do you mean early on that day, a goo amount of time before deadline?

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Microfish_1: (Folks, notice that if I forget to unvote Yogs before voting Flocke, Yogs will probably criticize me/call me scum for lying or something. :( )
Don't worry...be happy...don't worry, be happy now :)
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Microfish_1: I tend to agree with this (and this tendency to agree with GR is what makes him less of a suspect to me than he otherwise would be).
So from a scale of blart to bort, how many points have I gained in the town-or-not-o-meter? :D

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Microfish_1: 1. the pool would be smaller (8, iirc, if we lunch everyDay and have a corresponding NK)
2. Everyone but scum will be doubting everyone else at this point; a confirmed player can help clear things up by being removed from the list of possible scum.
If there is a conflict (similar to what might happen in late-stage SH, but different as this isn't that game), and one person is confirmed town (IC), the rest of the town will not vote that person, so
I'd have combined these first 2, but you make a good point here.

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Microfish_1: 3. the IC will live to be a probable NK
Unless they have found or think they've found a better target....but yes, you also potentially serve as a potential "saving throw" for any of the rest of us town.

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Microfish_1: 4. other town players won't be reading the IC's posts from "is he scum or town talking here?" but will know the IC is town and read those posts accordingly.
Only on D4, if your claim rings true....until then no one is 100% sure of such(barring some sort of proof from another player, that is).

*Skipping a few of these points to save time and sanity(from feeling the need to reply to them all)*

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Microfish_1: 10. This role is really only as good as the player to whom it is assigned and the level of confidence others place in his reads and other posts.
Agreed


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Microfish_1: 14. I have decided the idea is pre-post-erous!
15. This list is getting rather long.
16. Maybe people are bored with reading it.
17. Maybe I should stop?
18. Can't stop just yet.
19. I'm glad I'm not a guidepost.
20. I shall end this bit of the post here.
L-o-l

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Microfish_1: @All of you--straighten up! Chests out, stomachs in, chins up, eyes forward! Make sure you have good posture!
:D :D :D
*Slouches on purpose*

(Not cause I don't wanna be optimistic, mind you, but because I am a bit of a rebel :D)

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Microfish_1: @GR Joe did soundstage stuff for a live theater in the Scottish high- or low-lands last summer.
Cool beans....I used to love me some amateur stage plays when I was younger/got out more. :)
Posted February 15, 2020
OK. After thinking about it a bit, I'm not lynching Microfish. Here's why.
- He claimed he's a Day 4 Innocent Child. If he makes it as long as Day 4 yet his innocence isn't broadcast, he's as good as dead.
- He also claimed he's Percy Weasley. No matter how I think about it, he comes across as someone who is talented, but naive enough to be swayed by a corrupt ministry until he quits later on. As Carradice and others have said, this fits. The role and claim makes sense.

This of course comes with caveats. He has not revealed any abilities he could pull off at night. So if word comes out that he visited someone, he's also as good as dead.

I'm more interested in lynching Joe, who instead of using compelling arguments to prove why I'm scum, he's scraping the bottom of the barrel with lOoK aT mE i'M sO tOwN and literally semantics like my usage of "we" and "they," rather than for the actual meat. Combine this with the vote hopping I mentioned earlier this Day 2, and most importantly, his lack of activity - he doesn't even seem to be trying. Would only really lynch Flocke to avoid a no-lynch, but I'd rather we end with Joe than someone I'm not fully convinced is worth a lynch.

This might or might not be my last post for today. I have a job interview tomorrow, so wish me luck.
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General discussionHarry Potter and GOG Mafia #64(1552 posts)(1552 posts)
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