This is true.

Opinion: Personally, giving @agentcarr a 0.1 or even a 0.01. Admittedly, neighbourising scum makes very little sense. Considering him as Town is recommended for your sanity-keeping purposes.

Giving away any bit of information that scum does not already know, when there is not a clear benefit for Town, does not seem to be a solid move. Completely against that. Still, here is the confirmation, lest anyone starts beating that dead horse again.

@ Micro/all here: Edit to post 735.....This bit should read as thus:

People agree and disagree with things as a game goes on.....and this post(seemingly "reaching" for things to suspect me about) seems a bit off(or perhaps a version of OMGUS at work by fellow town, more likely).....especially seeing as I un-voted you for awhile now(to give you breathing room from being unfairly lynched) & said I somewhat believed your claim/defended you a bit since you claimed.

(@OP: Above bolded bit is not a vote)
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Sounds believable(your confirmation I mean and also agent being town).

So then, what do we all do now? Any ideas?

Album numerorum

Oi! neighbour! Are you 100% sure that RWarehall is scum? (#8) :-)
This is to confirm whether the rest of the ciphers are OK.
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Just entered the last inputs into the arithmagic spell. Hot picks, besides @Micro and @Flocke, are, in this order: @ConsulCaesar; @yogsloth, tied with @Pooka; @JoeSapphire.

@SPF remains Mr. Inscrutable, meaning he is the one getting more ambiguous reads of all of us.
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Opinion: Still, cannot see a clear case against @Micro nor @Flocke, while some of those pushing against them are not on solid ground. Cannot help wondering if the crowd is being herded, especially since there are fellows who have actually earned a healthy dose of suspicion.

Just for fun: Who is holding both @Flocke and @Micro as suspects?
SPF; yogs; Lift; GR; Caesar; joppo; agent

From those, let us say we remove agent:
SPF; yogs; Lift; GR; Caesar; joppo; (set 0)

Now, let us remove someone who is Mr Innocent (joppo):
SPF; yogs; Lift; GR; Caesar; (set 1)

Question: From those, who are pushing more against each of @Micro and @Flocke? Are they reasoning in a solid way?

Now, who is on one of the two (@Flocke and @Micro), but not on both?
trent; Joe; Pooka. (set 2)

The same question applies.

Hypothesis: Sets 1 and 2, put together, contain ALL of the scum.

Discuss.

My answer is no I don’t think that all the scum are in sets 1&2 combined, anyone can be scum. As of right now we have NO INFO to go on other than speculation and suspicion. At the rate we are going we will no lynch everyday and scum will win by attrition.

Hypothesis 2: Set 1 contains no less than 1 hostile, with a high likelihood of at least 2 being present.

Hypothesis 2: Set 1 contains no less than 1 hostile.

meh,

Why the edit?
please post a new screenshot of your spreadsheet with the updated numbers as I wish to edit mine but can't be bothered to look them up.

I know GR unvoted me, but he's also is liberally warning me that he will vote me, so i really don't know.

>>Moving Agent & carradice down to 0.4, as this game is wacky enough they might be scum, so I won't move them lower.

>>For having no reads + or - I'm gonna move SPF & Joppo up to 0.6, as if they are that non-commitive(?) not pushing themselves out front like this, one of htem must be "Mr Perfect Scum" and I can't tell which one.

>>Enough other people are weird that Pooka moves to 0.65 from wherever he might be if he isn't there already--not cleared because of that instinctive gut feeling yesterDay that I had found one of them and I might be tunneling but I don't want to give it up just because he says to do so.
>Yogs moves to .86 as I don't want to tunnel on him alone and his disregard for my claim is regrettable yet understandable. I think he's scum, but at this point anything might be happening.

As I recall things from my experience, there is usually one scum who is very vocal, trying to figure things out, generally steering convos, and one other scum who hangs back and lets the chips fall, trying to be lock town and only interjecting to nudge once in a while, doing nothing scummy; generally flying under the radar. A kind of behind-the-scenes guy not to closely associated with the frontman.

I cannot tell yet which of the very vocal people might fit this hypothesis, if indeed it is true in this game. It is one reason I am leaning scum!GR, I don't recall him being this vocal before. Otoh, this theory might not fit the scum this time.


Keep it in mind when I am prven town

trent actually brings up a very good point...

Anybody read the books?

So Voldemort lays a death trap for Harry, and instead Cedric Diggory triggers it. He takes the death that was meant for Harry.


Take a look at yourself and ask yourself if there's some sense to who and what you are.

So how on God's green flat Earth is Percy Weasley an Innocent Child? Percy was an eternally annoying little shit that went to work for the Ministry of Magic after it had gone completely evil. He knowingly worked against his own family, even after he knew it was wrong, and didn't come back to the fold until the very end.

You want an Innocent Child? Give me a Colin Creevy, or better yet, a Lavendar Brown, who actually got eaten by a wolf.

Does. Not. Compute.

@ZFR: No Votus/Unvotus in this post.
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No edit but copy with changes, you know. Format and leaving a cleaner phrasing of the hypothesis.

The idea is reflecting on the questions posed, and providing rationales for refuting (or supporting) the statements proposed for discussion. The ultimate goal is trying to find a pocket where there is a higher chance of finding scum. @yogsloth proposed such a pocket, with an allegued likelihood of 1 in case @Micro flipped scum. Here, we are discussing alternative pockets, so that we can examine every possibility before deciding where to put our chips.
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Hana-bi numerorum

The layman explanation
.................or................
How to use the bl00dy chart

As it has been requested:

Matrix 1: All the expressed suspicion. The guy who expresses the opinion is in blue/cyan, the suspects in pink/violet. Just by looking at it, you will figure something out.

Matrix 2: A simplification. Everything is rounded to 1 or 0, but for pure 0.5 values. This is the stuff of which bandwagons are made. Useful for negotiation and engineering of bandwagons.

The set of 7 indicators has been selected from a wider group as the most helpful and simpler to use. Their function is to summarize information. A variety of approaches is possible. A simple one might be:

1. Look at the column Average Heat in order to see the average degree of suspicion for each one. If there is a tie, go for Weighted Heat or for Hard-Weighted Heat (the two columns to the right). The colours will help interpreting: the redder, the worse. You can use also Chart 2 instead of the spreadsheet.

2. In the matrix below, see the columns Concurrence and Hard Concurrence, which appears with the unreadable name of 'Av Conc>0.5'. Can you find the file with your name? in the column Hard Concurrence, the number you see is the number of people who is positively suspecting you, meaning a suspicion above 0.5. They might be swayed to vote for you, eventually. The column Concurrence includes people with ambiguous reads of you, counted at half a point. This means that, to the people that is already suspecting you, we are adding half of the people who does not know what to make of you. You can use also Chart 3 for this (where Average Heat is also included, for reference).

3. If you are feeling super lazy and just want to take a look at things at a glance, you cannot go too wrong if you go straight to Weighted Heat.

Carradice, you should come hang out on Mafia Universe. I'll introduce you to Frog. You two would hit it off smashingly.

Hi all, on the bus. I'm reading, but making a big-ish post from my phone is horrible. Will reply later when I have a chance to uae a proper computer. Needless to say, I have thoughts and opinions on current events!

Hi everyone, currently hang-gliding over the Amazon, hunting penguins. Will play later when I have time to do all the stuff that I need to stuff.

This only works if the most suspected players ares both Town. So either the majority of the town is wrong, and/or the scum is skewing the results. Not that the data set is particularly big, but have you noticed any outliers?

Of course, if at least one of them is Mafia, then it would be the other way around.