Good post(including a good amount of the stuff that I snipped).....it gave me some things to think on as I rest in a bit.

As to your picks here: Caesar i hard to lean either way due to lack of posts, and as for agent....well leT's just say that I nOW trust him a bit more thaN bEforE....call it a gut feeling.

As for me: I'm going to bed in a bit, and will be up to answer questions later on(if anyone has any or any more replies to my other replies to them).

Laters *waves*

I don't know the intricacies of when scum would tell it is the right time to throw a buddy under the bus, but at least this part makes sense.

@Carradice: We were 14 players yesterday, supposedly 3 scum. As far as scum would have that is a target rich environment and there's no need to lynch one of their own when they can get a townie instead.
Besides, their main weapon after the NK is misinformation; throw one third of the team away at D1 they will lose a lot of chances to spread misinformation and influence lynches.

What Pooka forgot to mention when he said that Trent bussed Agent D1 in that past game is that Agent had made a mistake that was so obvious there was no coming back. Trent knew Agent would be the D1 lynch right away and bussing was the least risky option. If Agent had managed to stay hidden longer their strategy certainly wouldn't be the same.

Alright, enough of this

Votus Microfish

All right and duly noted (no disrespect meant). Then, at least, even if there is an opinion that any scum doing so is an idiot, the thing is that sometimes it happens, as in the case that Pooka mentions of Watcher of Kalunga. Trent x Agent. It could be a mistake, or it could be that tactically, in that precise circumstance, he saw it as the better action available, in spite of the rule-of-thumb (isn't that the mark of someone who knows his chops? if he can pull it out afterwards, of course).

And, anyway, the case for a 'what if' Micro is not scum, still stands. Two things rang true with him: explaining how he had been breadcrumbing, and refusing to claim at minus-3 (he lately got to minus-1, though). A third, thing gave pause: RWarehall being so insistent that the case against @Microfish_1 was not solid, since he was not really fishing. Those three reasons, combined, lead to a change in vote, here.

Dunno if there is anything else that might look shady about @Microfish, but everyone ready to vote for him might do better than doing it just for the sake of voting someone. It would show commintment and help the rest ponder and maybe change our minds. The same goes for @Microfish, if he is willing to make a defense.

Even in that situation where Agent was completely doomed, trent was extremely reluctant to bus Agent, which says a lot.

It's been pointed out to you already that the only reason that happened is that agent made a critical, non-recoverable mistake. Note I said any mafia that *needlessly* busses Day 1.

And the opinions of dead Townies don't mean shit. RW was town, so therefore anybody he read as Town must be Town? How does that make a shred of sense?

TL; DR: Suggestion: Let us share whom are we suspecting (with numbers if you can), for fun & scumhunting success.


Knowing who is accumulating suspicion, even while not being a personal favourite of none of us, might help in singling out suspects that we unknowingly are agreeing upon, or that we mention in a secondary way, but who are accumulating scum points from a majority of us. This knowledge might help, also, in avoiding another no-lynch conclusion for D2.

So, a little arithmagic might shed some light over said 'sideshow' suspects, that might end up becoming protagonists. It also might have the benefit of knowing each one's position in a most clear way.

If you want to contribute, ideally the best would be to submit a vector with 14 elements, disposed vertically, like, for example

Album numerorum

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3

(A traslation of RWarewall's 'famous' #565 post; maybe older posts might help with subtler nuances for the people below 0.5).

The order corresponds to that of the signing list:

Census populi

1. SirPrimalform
2. yogsloth
3. trentonlf
4. Lifthrasil
5. FlockeSchnee
6. JoeSapphire
7. Carradice
8. RWarehall
9¾. GameRager
10. ConsulCaesar
11. Microfish_1
12. joppo
13. PookaMustard
14. agentcarr16

(RWarehall is included, for clarity, and assigned a 0)

The values, also ideally, might go from 0 (= complete faith on the suspect being innocent) to 1 (no doubts on the suspect's guilt), with 0.5 meaning that you have no reads whatsoever. Everything below means leaning town, and above, leaning scum.

If you do want to be bothered with decimals, 0 to 10 is OK too. Also, if you think that this is too much work, well, you can still write down who do you think is leaning this side or that side, as clearly as possible, with comments, if you like. That would be translated to numbers as best it could be done (but it will require more work and will take longer).

Results would be shared as an image for everyone to see (casting Hana-bi numerorum). Hopefully, the findings would help Town, appart from contributing to everyone's amusement.


____________________________________


About cops, why holding so much faith in a townie cop to solve our problems? Even if we do have one, he has not claimed and he cannot let us know openly. So, there is no substitute for us doing our work.

Also, avoiding ANY discussion of roles and powers, ANY of it, can only help Town. Scum know so many things, from the start and now, with 1 card fully flipped and 1 card claimed. They know themselves, too. They can coordinate, do not give them more. Really, not even a leaf of grass, not even one olive stone, not even a little bit of owl poo.

____________________________________

@joppo: See? so there was a valid tactical reason for that, and the rule-of-thumb sure meets exceptions in practice.

Sorry, I'm not trying to be jerkish

I'm just reaching that magic point where I really need a flip in order to get a sanity check, because I'm just going to start tunneling and confirmation-biasing everything I see

If microfish flips Scum, some of you old schoolers may know exactly what I mean by this:


<-----------



-----


I'll look at that big Carradice thing in a moment

Missed that post while typing, and duly replied to joppo afterwards. All right, let us keep that hypothesis. Then again, why not consider the opposite hypothesis, too? Meaning, if @Microfish is not scum, what would be the implications? Not sure why we should fight with one arm tied to our backs.

'Two things rang true... A third thing gave pause... Those three reasons, combined, lead to a change in vote' Not the the quoted text spoke about the past. Namely, bringing to memory why this particular player changed the vote.

About your statement: Hardly. Sure dead people don't vote, but their expressed ideas at the moment they were shared sure count as information to be considered. Especially since the situation has changed very little (or practically nothing). If anything, at this very moment his words weight more than at the time they were proferred, since he has afterwards flipped townie.

Menh, not the greatest way to organize this information probably, but there you go, that's approximately my world view at this static moment in time

Perfect! For the rest of the crew: without the names, it would be even more perfect!! Since it only would take a copius and a pastius to get it into the Calculation Spell ;-) But since the names might prevent mistakes, it is all right, too.

And, yeah, all this is pretty rough, but maybe we can do. Also, some colour will help with the interpretation. And, everyone's input might help, too.

Have I missed Micro's explanation of how to prove himself as Town?

I don't see how it could hurt. Agent has already claimed. The only thing it could tell scum is who Agent thinks is town.

I'd say 3. He was not among the most suspected, so the "bandwagons" don't give us enough information yet.

Over 24 hours into Day 2, and several people have posted once or not at all, and I've got the only vote on the table.

Fabuloussimo.

I'll go through what y'all wrote sequentially

I disagree. Intelligent scum may avoid putting all their eggs in one basket. Especially the hammer position on a mislynch is better left to Town, from Scum's view. Also, intelligent scum know that a no-lynch is bad for Town. Worse, actually, than a mis-lynch. A no-lynch is basically a free night-kill with minimal information for Town. So why should scum do our job for us? Maybe they just sat back yesterday enjoying the show. Or they were content with derailing one or two trains that had actual scum members as target and then sat back.

Or Micro is scum. That's also possible, of course. But even if he is Town, I wouldn't assume that all scum were on his train.

Good catch. Either this was intendet as a quip at agentcarr - or as an agreement, that it wasn't clear before to help agent look better.

@Consul: which is it? Did you just make fun of agent? Or did you agree with him yesterday?

Or the bodyguard did his job. But as yogs pointed out, it's useless to speculate since we don't know RW's target.

You're right. This looks very scummy and by association makes Micro scummy too. Otherwise Flocke would have had no need to refuse to vote him, unless he wanted to let it go to no-lynch intentionally.

Especially after we went through the fact that no-lynch is bad for Town. So not hammering, with a pick he said to agree with waiting for hammer, looks very scummy.

Good. Now, before you reveal more (or someone else corroborates), we should decide together whether that would be useful or not.

@all: what do you think, should Agent reveal whom he neighborized? It would confirm his role, at least. Apart from that, we wouldn't gain much from it. But I also don't see any big risks in in. The fact that two players are neighbors doesn't reveal anything about their roles or their alignment. If both are Town, scum might want to deny Town of a Night Chat, but honestly, I am doubting how useful that Night Chat is, if one doesn't know the partner's alignment. I would like to get a confirmation of agent's claim. But I don't know if it's worth it or if you see any risks that outweigh the benefit of the confirmation. Let me know.

[got to post 600 at this point]