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General discussionHarry Potter and GOG Mafia #64(1552 posts)(1552 posts)
(1552 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted February 28, 2020
OK. So Neville makes kind of sense after all. Let's buy that for now.

Unvote Pooka

That leaves trent, Joppo and Consul for today's lunch.

Trent is claimed vanilla, Town wouldn't lose a PR and his obscure character would be a relatively safe false claim. But he felt a bit towny.

Consul had some scummy and some towny moments.

Joppo has evaded being read throughout all game. He might be skilfully flying under the radar.

Really, I don't know which of these three is best. Right now I have the odd feeling that Joppo is fooling us all. So I'll vote him. But I will switch to any if the other two if necessary. Trent more readily than consul.

Votus Joppo
Posted February 28, 2020
Okay, y'know what? I think trent might just be scum....but i'm not convinced and i'll play along for now.
I want to lunch trent to remove our confusion over him. he said he was an easy lunch (958).
The thing that gets me is that Post 958 is such a LAMIST post that it is impressive. Really, it truly is.

What makes it even more impressive is that it worked.

Trent rightly or wrongly gave the impression of someone who was so tired of it that he had basically stopped caring; claimed--volunteered his claim without being asked, mind you; and then asked us to do something. So we did. We read this as giving him major town points and the wagon evaporated before it began.
He correctly saw that he was the most suspect player of them all due to his close association with yogs, wanting to lunch me, and hammering Flocke. So he put out a preemptive post that gives the impression that he almost stopped caring and wouldn't blame us if he was lunched because of his bad play.

And it worked. It fits his playstyle, his in-game personality, and had perfect timing.
It is so perfect that I cannot unsee it, yet I cannot fully believe it either.

@Trent if you are scum, I tip my hat to you. If you are town, I tip my hat to you for your masterfully staving off a ML and fully empathize with your feeling tired and lack of care about who gets mislunched. (1044) Regardless of which faction you are, you played that spectacularly.

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Still have no idea what to make of pooka, would vote him, am willing to switch to lift. (i started this post to vote lift).
lift won't claim at L-2 unless he is going to bed or offline for hours.
==========================

And now Lift is voting joppo as one idea is as good as another. Hmm. Lift has been present much of toDay, while Joppo summarizes and disappears. would the remaining scum or two fade or try to misdirect?

Joppo is worth a try, Carradice will join us. This will make L-3

vote joppo
Posted February 28, 2020
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Lifthrasil: Joppo has evaded being read throughout all game. He might be skilfully flying under the radar.

Really, I don't know which of these three is best. Right now I have the odd feeling that Joppo is fooling us all. So I'll vote him. But I will switch to any if the other two if necessary. Trent more readily than consul.

Votus Joppo
Same here. Would gladly vote for Caesar as well.

Not liking bandwagons for Pooka, Lift, right now.


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Scrutino Joppo

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___________________


@Will try to make a new chart with the data available, please collaborate if you can.

___________________

Micro, what do you have against this voting history:

D1: Caesar, then Micro since Caesar was under D1 courtesy free pass; then the next in the list, GR, as Micro's case was rethought, and became a staunch defender of Micro.

D2: ConsulCaesar

D3: yogsloth
Posted February 28, 2020
@carradice if you mean your voting history, the main thing that strikes me as scummy about you today is you seem to go off on wagon tangents (sidings?) sometimes trying to start new wagons. Not being satisfied with one wagon we had near completion, you tried to get a new one going at the last minute.
I don't think you are scum, I'm just noting it out of general paranoia and was asking trent if anyone else found anything odd or if i am just seeing things that aren't there.

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Carradice: snip
Do you mean lift's voting history? I think he is town, but GR must be town and is pushing for Lift's name claim. Then trent was as well...and I thought there might be something there...am i now starting to doubt GR?

Please tell me whose voting history that is?
Posted February 28, 2020
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Microfish_1: @carradice if you mean your voting history,
[...]
Please tell me whose voting history that is?
Sorry, it seemed that context was making it clear. That's @Carradice's voting history. Changes on D1, then hesitation on D4.

Admittedly, have been aware of a strong bias towards trent. Conscious of being under a successful AtE, what else can be said.

Right now, Pooka's claim is consistent with the style shown by ZFR for other roles.

________________________

Adding the values for the spreadsheet as of today. Mind, besides Micro's and Carradice's shown values (thanks, Micro), it is a SURE thing that people are being misrepresented. Just tried to guess to the best of this scribe's ability some values that are not too far off, based on votes and expressed opinions.

Values assigned to each supect in order to make the sheet:

People more or less cleared are padded with 0.3
People voted are padded with 0.7
Other people suspected are padded with 0.6, 0.7 if there are comments about "these guys are the same", etc
People for whom no opinion has been given are padded with 0.5.

Will be off for a few hours, then check back like 6 hours before the deadline. Please include your corrections, especially if you think the mistakes are too gross.

The second image shows, in the upper table, in pink, the average values, modified for you with the trust that you have expressed for each person. The more you trust someone, the more weight (think of it as an experimental feature).

According to the matrix in the first image, we are having a lunch today.
Attachments:
arith_107_reduce.jpg (315 Kb)
arith_107_reduce.jpg (159 Kb)
Posted February 28, 2020
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Lifthrasil: OK. So Neville makes kind of sense after all. Let's buy that for now.
You know what I find ODD?

How you seem to get scrutinized/have focus put on you & then you do something/say something & it all suddenly starts to melt away.....first on D1(IIRC) and now on D4...i.e. you had a decent wagon forming on you then you start a Joppo wagon and avoid having to claim close to deadline?

Town with PR or scum? Hard to tell.

Note to all: Note how he started a wagon after I voted him/got him to L-3 and hinted at wanting his eventual claim......he did the same thing when he tried going after Agent with his LAL policy on D1(i.e. he got some suspicions/eyes on him, then backed off/claimed it was his play style and the heat went away.

Now this isn't to say it isn't his play style in general or that I am certain he isn't town....I just find it very odd that it has happened TWICE this game as he had wagons building on him.

(@OP: Above bolded bit is NOT a vote)
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Microfish_1: Trent rightly or wrongly gave the impression of someone who was so tired of it that he had basically stopped caring; claimed--volunteered his claim without being asked, mind you; and then asked us to do something. So we did. We read this as giving him major town points and the wagon evaporated before it began.
He correctly saw that he was the most suspect player of them all due to his close association with yogs, wanting to lunch me, and hammering Flocke. So he put out a preemptive post that gives the impression that he almost stopped caring and wouldn't blame us if he was lunched because of his bad play.
You might be right on that.....it's worth thinking about, at least.

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Microfish_1: Still have no idea what to make of pooka, would vote him, am willing to switch to lift. (i started this post to vote lift).
lift won't claim at L-2 unless he is going to bed or offline for hours.

And now Lift is voting joppo as one idea is as good as another. Hmm. Lift has been present much of toDay, while Joppo summarizes and disappears. would the remaining scum or two fade or try to misdirect?
He's on right now(Lift, I mean....while I write this), so why go after Joppo(who might not even be on in time to reply to his wagon)?

Also please be sure to note the bit above I wrote re: his post to all players on his losing heat put on him TWICE now in this game, and also how he has started a new wagon very close to deadline.

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Microfish_1: Joppo is worth a try, Carradice will join us. This will make L-3
As I said above, why make a wagon so close to deadline on someone who might not even be on in time to make a claim & have a chance to defend themselves if town? Does that sound wise to do so close to deadline on a player who doesn't check in as much?

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Microfish_1: Do you mean lift's voting history? I think he is town, but GR must be town and is pushing for Lift's name claim. Then trent was as well...and I thought there might be something there...am i now starting to doubt GR?
I am because that seems a good strategy....i.e. we get players close enough to get claims and then lynch the most suspect. Now(as said above in my reply to Lift) Lift has managed to get 2 to join a new wagon and get heat off of himself in the process...odd isn't it?

Or am I imagining things? :\

(Read his post I quoted at the top of this post of mine......he agrees that the Neville claim makes sense AFTER getting to L-3 and I suggest he be pushed to claim...so either he has a very good town PR OR he's scum, imo....dunno which is more likely atm & that's what worries me a bit)
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Posted February 28, 2020
Concerning the repeated calls for a mass claim, I would prefer if the potential remaining hidden PR(s) could do their thing for one more night unmolested. It is possible, that we have some useful power left, that might push the game from 'likely Town win' to 'certain Town win'. For example, if some tracker would see a claimed vanilla or Miller move at Night, we would have a certain scum. Same for blockers/ other investigators/ protectors.

So I'd prefer if we postpone the remaining claims to tomorrow. However, if the majority wishes a mass-claim, we should decide that soon. The deadline is approaching and a mass claim needs time to be processed and to react to it.
Posted February 28, 2020
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GameRager: As I said above, why make a wagon so close to deadline on someone who might not even be on in time to make a claim & have a chance to defend themselves if town? Does that sound wise to do so close to deadline on a player who doesn't check in as much?
GR has a point, here. On the other hand, he is rewarding lurky playstile.

Also, thinking about what Micro said, not a fan of trent's bandwagon, but would vote for him to avoid a no-lunch.

List of people who would vote for:

Caesar, joppo, trent

Keeping safe for now: Pooka (his claim is either true or a GOOD fake).

Sounding convicingly townie: Lift...

A mass claiming does not seem like a good idea right now: Town gives away lots of good intel and receives crap in return.
Posted February 28, 2020
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Lifthrasil: Concerning the repeated calls for a mass claim, I would prefer if the potential remaining hidden PR(s) could do their thing for one more night unmolested. It is possible, that we have some useful power left, that might push the game from 'likely Town win' to 'certain Town win'. For example, if some tracker would see a claimed vanilla or Miller move at Night, we would have a certain scum. Same for blockers/ other investigators/ protectors.
Agreed/fair points, but afaik no one seems to be calling for a mass claim.

I myself said getting individuals to claim range one by one was a good strategy, though(so we could hopefully find someone scummy enough to lynch), but that's about it from me....dunno about the others(if someone said so I either missed it or(more likely) forgot it.

Also with around 8 hours left till deadline I don't think we have time even IF people wanted to do so.

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Lifthrasil: So I'd prefer if we postpone the remaining claims to tomorrow. However, if the majority wishes a mass-claim, we should decide that soon. The deadline is approaching and a mass claim needs time to be processed and to react to it.
Wait, you are pushing for a Joppo lynch mere HOURS before deadline, LIKELY with little chance for him to see it and possibly be able to claim.....and NOW you say we should postpone ALL claims till tomorrow?

So are you saying we should lynch Joppo without giving him a chance to claim? Or that we end in a nolynch(as not giving him a chance to claim/defend himself is something I cannot abide by)? Or just no OTHER claims but his for the rest of D4?
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Carradice: GR has a point, here. On the other hand, he is rewarding lurky playstile.
Thanks, and maybe I am indirectly a bit, BUT note I also questioned Flocke on lurking earlier in the game.

Essentially it's as the one player(I forget who, now...bad memory as I said) who said in the game(paraphrased): "At such a point(like in elections) near deadline we stick to the main candidates, not try to nominate new ones".

If anyone wants to start a Joppo wagon on D5 early on i'd gladly help it along so we can get a claim from him as well...but to push it now when he has less than 8 hours IRL time to see it/react/reply/etc seems VERY SUSPECT to me.

(Also as I said before, Lift did this on D1 as well a bit and got some heat taken off him than as well)

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Carradice: A mass claiming does not seem like a good idea right now: Town gives away lots of good intel and receives crap in return.
Agreed.
Posted February 28, 2020
so, do we jump ship and join town!pooka and go for trent @lift @carradice @gamerager we would need 1 more to join to get a vanilla or scum but the lunch.
Posted February 28, 2020
Vote Count

Lift 3 - Joe, GameRager, trent
joppo 3 - Lift, Micro, Carradice
trent 1 - Pooka
Pooka 1 - agent

Not voting - joppo, Caesar

10 Players. Takes 6 to lynch.
Posted February 28, 2020
Quick check. If you are going to request my claim please let me know. I will be checking again sometime after lunch (Spanish lunch times ;) ).

Disclaimer: I'm not asking to "reward a lurky playstyle". I can't help it if most of the action takes place while I'm sleeping or at work.

I do believe Pooka's claim. That leaves my voting pool as Trent, Lift or Joppo.

Votus trent

Willing to change to any of the other two to avoid a no lynch.

UTC is current UK time, right?
Posted February 28, 2020
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Lifthrasil: So I'd prefer if we postpone the remaining claims to tomorrow. However, if the majority wishes a mass-claim, we should decide that soon. The deadline is approaching and a mass claim needs time to be processed and to react to it.
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GameRager: Wait, you are pushing for a Joppo lynch mere HOURS before deadline, LIKELY with little chance for him to see it and possibly be able to claim.....and NOW you say we should postpone ALL claims till tomorrow?
No. I say we should postpone a mass claim to tomorrow. Because it needs time to be processed. Of course Joppo should have the chance to claim, if he wants to.

But I don't agree that the lack of time should protect him. If we would follow your thought, that there is too little time for him to claim, we would effectively restrict ourselves to those who have claimed already.

Or in other words: not claiming should not protect anyone from a lynch. Not participating shouldn't be a free pass either. If Joppo isn't present at all for the final day of this Day, that's unfortunate but it can't be an argument for excluding him from the lynch pool. Otherwise we are opening the door to lurking to victory.

Now, I'm not dead set on lynching Joppo. Trent would be an alternative who already has claimed and Consul would be an alternative, who is slightly more active than Joppo. But again: I don't want to reward lurking. So I do see Joppo as a valid target (as I have stated often before) now that my question about the believability of Pooka's claim have been answered.
Posted February 28, 2020
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Lifthrasil: snip.
if i switched to trent, as a way to get a lunch without a systematic roleclaim on D4, would you join me?

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ConsulCaesar: Disclaimer: I'm not asking to "reward a lurky playstyle". I can't help it if most of the action takes place while I'm sleeping or at work.

I do believe Pooka's claim. That leaves my voting pool as Trent, Lift or Joppo.

Votus trent

Willing to change to any of the other two to avoid a no lunch.

UTC is current UK time, right?
Re time, yes as far as I know.
I understand work and sleep! Sometimes I get up, get online and find 3 pages (at 20 posts per page) waiting for me!

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GameRager: You know what I find ODD?
yes, i noticed it too. actions of scum or townie who knows they are townie. NAI?

we can pursue it on d5 after seeing what transpires n4. I think it wrong to reward lurkiness, and bad form to rush a new train without giving everyone time to react so we can later gauge their reactions! In a sense you did the same thing by voting lift.

will you join us on trent's wagon?

There is Vlittle diff between a massclaim and going one by one to everybody, putting them at L-1, and saying "claim now". :P If you weren't confirmed scum I'd say it was scummy.



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Carradice: snip
okay. it isn't a 100% complete vote record (iirc from ISO'ing ZFR & searching for "carradice") but it touches on many of the main points.

Anyway, i don't expect you to be scum.

will you vote trent despite being under a ATE?
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i am not pursuing Joppo atm because, while he needs to claim if he gets to L-1, there is next to no time to discuss and jump to another wagon, potentially leaving us with a no-lunch.

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i am continuing to read lift as town.
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trentonlf: Snip
If I forgot to say it, thank you.

If you are the lunch, please know that it is nothing personal, i just want to get some concrete info on d4

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is voting for and lunching probable vanilla town worse than voting for a train of probable scum that won't take off and will instead lead to a NL?
Posted February 28, 2020
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ConsulCaesar: Disclaimer: I'm not asking to "reward a lurky playstyle". I can't help it if most of the action takes place while I'm sleeping or at work.
I think they meant Joppo with that bit, though I could be wrong.

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ConsulCaesar: UTC is current UK time, right?
If you google "current UTC time"(without quotes) it will show you the time in UTC.....we have until 7PM UTC. :)
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Lifthrasil: No. I say we should postpone a mass claim to tomorrow. Because it needs time to be processed. Of course Joppo should have the chance to claim, if he wants to.
But IF you essentially push a wagon on someone who has little chance of being able to react and claim(like Joppo in this case) you're essentially saying he should have something he likely cannot have due to time constraints.

(To me it's like those contest that say one CAN win, but the odds are so low it's almost impossible)

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Lifthrasil: But I don't agree that the lack of time should protect him. If we would follow your thought, that there is too little time for him to claim, we would effectively restrict ourselves to those who have claimed already.
And what would be the problem in that? Those who have claimed and aren't lock or near-lock town seem as good a choice as any....also AT LEAST the ones who claimed had a chance to do so....why not let the others get until D5 when we can try pushing them one by one to claim as well & stick to the claimed ones to pick a lynch for "today"?

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Lifthrasil: Or in other words: not claiming should not protect anyone from a lynch. Not participating shouldn't be a free pass either. If Joppo isn't present at all for the final day of this Day, that's unfortunate but it can't be an argument for excluding him from the lynch pool. Otherwise we are opening the door to lurking to victory.
I don't think we would be.....as I said we could scruinize them on future "days"....also at least Joppo has made more of an attempt to play than Flocke did(sorry Flocke, if you read this, but it is true).

Also weren't you one of those in the past(this game) who kept saying people should be given chances to defend themselves/claim if need be? Why the rush on joppo when he might not be able to defend against such? Why not another player who IS here and hasn't claimed yet?

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Lifthrasil: Now, I'm not dead set on lynching Joppo. Trent would be an alternative who already has claimed and Consul would be an alternative, who is slightly more active than Joppo. But again: I don't want to reward lurking. So I do see Joppo as a valid target (as I have stated often before) now that my question about the believability of Pooka's claim have been answered.
So then trent perhaps? Sounds as good as any I suppose....some others have also expressed interest in this as well.

As such, let's see everyone(you and the others) put your money where your mouth is and get us that lynch:

Unvotus Lift

Votus Trent
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionHarry Potter and GOG Mafia #64(1552 posts)(1552 posts)
(1552 posts)