Caesar says it would probably be safe for Slytherin to have a mass name-claim.

zfr chips in that HP knowledge ISN'T essential, but WOULD help.

Conclusion - a mass name claim would harm slytherin, and Caesar didn't know that.

Therefore - Caesar's not slytherin.


I reckon

Unvotus JoeSapphire

The claim sounds good. The strongest part of it is the SPF part. The ways to fake it that come to mind might be just:

1. [delirious_mode]Yogs NKs SPF, then self-votes in order to provide the remaining Slyth with strong Townie credit.[/delirious_mode]
2. Something like an even-day-SK might have done the trick. It seems like a very weird combination, but we have seen weird combinations already in this game.

All in all, the claim might well be true since the alternatives are rather baroque.

About the use of powers, it looks risky: why taking out someone if he was not quite sure yet (others were)? Instead of protecting GR, since Joe already had found out about GR's role?

In any case, it seemes that luck might have helped, if the claim is true.

Now, about Joe's readings: NOT buying the "derpclear" about Caesar. The post mentioned does not appear to be AI, unless there is some reasoning that has not been explained. ConsulCaesar might be Town or not, but that post does not clear him at all, as seen from here.

True that Lift vs Agent looked weird, but it might be interpreted on a very staunch defense of policy. But also, not getting here what is there against Pooka, so you might be seeing things that have escaped the eyes of others.

@GR: Question 4. is not the best to be made at this point, and @Joe has correctly eluded replying to it, from a Town perspective.

________________


@GR, AgentCarr: Thank you!! You are too kind! Glad that you enjoyed it =) *bows deeply*

Gaaaah I don't need to start suspecting people I have already been thinking were cleared.
Damn good point tho. But it requires Carradice to be a GF. I'm still not sold on that theory, but it's more possible than... maybe one player whose character is a pair ot twins?
This game gets more confusing the more I think I understand it. If it weren't for the comfortable situation we as Town are in with two scum out of the field I think I would be desolated/panicky.

Yeah... No I can't agree with this. A full name claim could go pretty disastrously for Town! It is very obvious why it would be in scum's interest to push that claim. Disastrous enough, in fact, that it would be worth for scum sacrificing one of their own to achieve that town blunder. Scum would love to discover characters more likely to be attuned with the best PRs, and it would have to be made during D1 when townies didn't have a chance to compare their names and their roles to realize a connection.

There's a leap to go from that to "therefore this proves Caesar is scum", but there is an even bigger leap to "therefore this proves Caesar is town." At least for me the suspicion continues the same.

Technically, it's not Lift's fault you wrote that you had panicked, and Lift is right that Town would have no reason to panic seeing one scum headed for the gallows. At least not an obvious reason.


This much I can agree with. Doesn't fully explain the panic, but it makes sense that you'd panic before not during your vote

Hmmm I suspect the character claim somewhat... Would ZFR create a role composed of two characters only because they're twins?
Barring that a JOAT fits them pretty well. I would expect them as independent masons, if anything; or out of the game entirely. I'm thinking it's reasonable to believe you unless counterclaims.

In case anyone missed it, post #1086 establishes how, on Day 2, SPF changed his line abruptly, with ONE SINGLE POST. Then continued with his weirdness. The parallel with Joe on Day 4 is striking. Is it the fault of the person changing or the fault of those who actually, and accurately, notice it?

Meaning, one single post and then sustained weirdness, thus starting a new play line. Not a single weird post (which could have been interesting on its own, too).

____

Agreed on the mass claiming being damaging for Town.

Joppo makes sense and earns Town points with this post.

Some of Joe's actions and statements do not make sense, but that does not mean that he is necessarily scum. More like the fallibility of human nature.

If Joe's claim is true, that would leave fewer suspects. That is something to be glad for, not confused about. The confusion comes from the false conclusion of taking all his judgements as right, when he might well be wrong, and that has nothing to do with what his PM says.

If Joe is Town, the obvious choices are:

Pooka, trent.

From set 2 (see post #1047).

Now, remaining guys from set 1 (people who were set on the two innocents at once on D2): Caesar, Lift.

Thinking that scum might not want to have all their eggs in the same basket, set 2 seemed more likely. On the other hand, yogs imprinted a brazen quality to scum, seen on D1 with his example, and on D2 (after N1 scumchat) when SPF recovered from his D1 shyness (for a pyrric victory, as ge got Flocke taken to lunch on D2, but revealed himself to be scum in the process) (see #1086 if you missed it). So, maybe Scum3 felt safe enough to openly hold both innocents as suspicious?


Now, back onto the obvious suspects (this is the dificult part), from a personal point of view:

ConsulCaesar: Lurky, fishy. A little better on D4, but has had time to improve his game.
trent: with Agent in not wanting to believe he is scum... He sounds like solid Town, even when his past actions speak against him.
Pooka: colour-blind about him. Please continue to enlighten.

The not so obvious:

Lift: Lift: Sounds like a zelous town. Pooka, Joe thinks him scum.
Joppo: lurky. Sometimes makes sense, sometimes not. Is that scumminess or human nature?

Vote Count

Joe 2 - Caesar, Lift
trent 1 - Pooka
Lift 1 - Joe

Not voting - Micro, joppo, agent, GameRager, trent, Carradice

10 Players. Takes 6 to lynch.

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to imply that you would do it as scum, just that the strategy would be open if a scum were to try and it would not be against the rules.

After all, if a scum!Carradice were to try it would be my fault to let myself believe a spreadsheet more than my own suspicions. It would be a low blow of course, but only held back by one's moral code. And I could not make assumptions about that regarding people I had no prior contact with.

But if I had reservations before I am fairly more convinced of at least the honesty of the work placed in the spreadsheet by now.

According to Lift, though, I didn't panic when I saw that a scum was heading to the gallows - I went to put the third vote on a cop-caught scum, THEN panicked when the cop-caught scum voted for themself.

This is not the first game I've described myself as panicking - indeed, when I said I panicked, I wasn't even referring to this specific incident, I was referring to my general tendency to panic.

So when a passing, tongue-in-cheek, fairly typical comment gets presented as dropping-the-ball-quite-a-bit, I feel justified in calling shenanigans.


I didn't think the scum would be onto GameRager Night 2 -
I wanted to hang on to the Doctor as it can be a big swing late in the game.
But I thought the vigilante kill would become more dangerous as the Day goes on - I didn't want to be in a position where I had to hit scum or lose the game for everybody.

And yeah, admittedly luck was on my side.



I'm not clearing Caesar absolutely, but I think a scum would be wary about suggesting a mass name claim - especially someone new to gog who doesn't know our usual habits regarding that sort of thing.
Somebody said it might reveal the town roles to the mafia, which might be worth sacrificing one scum for - but why is only ONE scum at risk? A mass name claim might reveal ALL the mafia to the town.

This and the fact that Yogsloth was going after him Day One make Caesar Not A Priority for me right now.

What was Lift vs Agent, sorry?

I've moved Pooka into 'leaning town' because I got mixed signals from his interaction with the mafia.

My Scum-to-Townommetre has given me:

Lifthrasil
Trentonlf
Joppo
Pooka
Caesar

Why are you asking Dumbledore?

Friday evening UTC.

Mis-remembering and thinking you were playing the role of dumbledore in this game.

Also thanks. :)

Oh FFS! I lost another long post on the mobile. Now I'm home and try to reconstruct it.

So you're scumreading me because you are hurt. I'm sorry that I have offended you, but that makes your 'scumread' quite OMGUS-y. Also, I wasn't the one who said that it would be your fault if you get lynched. That was you. You chose to interpret my statement in that way. I just wrote that, if you are Town, you dropped the ball and I think that is a quite accurate description. That you read that as blame is an unfortunate choice on your part.

Try to read your own back-and-forth about Yogs while imagining that those posts come from someone else. You yourself would read them as scummy too. The flip-flopping, the entirely unnecessary panic. I think 'you dropped the ball' is a warranted observation. It is interesting that Trent is quite willing to accept that he made mistakes. And why not? We all make mistakes. You, however, read the observation that you made a mistake as scum-tell. Which is a mistake again.

But then again you scumreading me is quite normal across all recent games we played together. I missed that for most of this game. So all is as it should be again. ;-)


On to more serious things:
Joe's claim hasn't been counterclaimed and it contained several angles from which it could have been revealed as false if it was a false claim. But it wasn't challenged.
- no one else claimed to have protected GR, and we know that someone did protect him
- no one else claimed to have killed SPF or claimed to be a PGO or similar, but we know that SPF died.
- claiming not one but two names is risky. Sure, a double role is strange, but I wouldn't put it past ZFR to use one like this. Both of the twins are medium characters, so a scum false-claiming both doubles his risk that one of them is among the real Town players. Of course the twin-claim could be an elaborate 'Town-Arsonist' ploy, but I think the twins as JOAT actually fits the flavour.

So, with no counter-claim I rate Joe's claim as true and therefore I rate himself as mostly cleared.

unvotus Joe

(continued later)

Bumpus Givenus :D

(Not a vote)

Thanks.

Now how to proceed?

Trent: he still acted scummy in the past. We've been over that. His posts today felt towny, but he is good enough to fake that. Rationally I say: he's the best lynch candidate we have if we look for scum-tells. Emotionally I doubt my own read and feel that he is rather towny, even if frustrated. Still, he remains a valid candidate.

Consul: I don't see the derp-clear as clear-cut as Joe does. It might have been a genuine mistake of an inexperienced scum!Consul. Or it is also compatible with him being neutral, as some have speculated. --> Valid lynch target. Eliminating neutrals is usually beneficial for Town as well. Even if not so much as eliminating scum.

Pooka and Joppo: not much changed. Pooka was still the one who pushed a quite unrealistic narrative, as trent called it, as actual scum-read. And Joppo gave off the air of hiding in obscurity for parts of the game. Both have a number of towny looking posts as well. So both would be only emergency lynches for me to avoid a no-lynch.


On the bright side: if we decide to rate Joe as cleared based on his uncontested claim, then we have five mostly cleared players. That is almost enough to win purely by numbers. Not entirely (we would need one more), but we're in a good position. I am quite confident that if we eliminate all four of the above, we'll win. Since I know that I am Town and I rate the five cleared as cleared, I am quite sure that the remaining scum is/are amongst those four. The only flaw in this nice confidence is, that every one of these four will also claim to be 100% Town.

But in any case: what we may not do, under any circumstances, is no-lynch. Our Cop is out of shots, the protector that was effective was possibly one-shot as well. So the only way to win is to press our advantage and lynch one of the unconfirmed players each Day until we hit scum.