Posted July 19, 2018
adaliabooks
"Vell, Zaphod's just zis guy, you know?"
Registered: Jun 2013
From United Kingdom
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
ZFR
I love gold!
Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Posted July 20, 2018
Because she claimed a power role. I don't have enough experience with power roles in general, and didn't have time to do proper research, I preferred to be safe than sorry and not lynch a town PR.
Now that 3 people mentioned that it could be fake, and even if it wasn't it might not be that powerful altogether, I'd like to say I can get on to cristi's wagon.
Also, I don't mind being brigged, especially with an even number of players. With 12 players, brigging me won't even essentially block my vote, since if I vote for X, then whether I'm brigged or not 6 other people have to vote for X to secure the lynch, so it makes no difference either way.
Now that 3 people mentioned that it could be fake, and even if it wasn't it might not be that powerful altogether, I'd like to say I can get on to cristi's wagon.
Also, I don't mind being brigged, especially with an even number of players. With 12 players, brigging me won't even essentially block my vote, since if I vote for X, then whether I'm brigged or not 6 other people have to vote for X to secure the lynch, so it makes no difference either way.
trentonlf
Easily amused
Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
my name is catte
i touch your foods
Registered: Mar 2010
From United Kingdom
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted July 20, 2018
I would say, as someone who considers him a friend, and at least historically sees through him in mafia games (though again, I don't knooooow he's town but would wager on it if wagering were allowed beyond hat eating), it's not aggressiveness per se, but he had a really rough experience with JMich and RW beating on him for basically an entire game and no one picking up on it. JMich tied him up with constant jabs and RW would run up for the body blow.
I asked yogs after the game how the hell he didn't notice that, but it was a weird setup with no flips and everyone was busy theorycrafting rather than just observing actions. But it looked like weeks of intentional mental torture to keep him off balance. Since then I think his tolerance is lower. Post-Mafia Stress Disorder, perhaps. I'm not entirely kidding.
But I'll spare you my speech on why since then I try to use wolfy or suspicious a bit more, and scummy at least less. At least to me it just feels less...personal. But perhaps that's just the perspective of someone who hates not being town. Trent delights in being non-town, so the same wording probably doesn't hit him the same way. Anyway...
There was a bit of that here, and as noted I think Lift accusing him of being like Drealmer was a low blow given HSL's feelings on Dreamer, but I don't think it's what led him to pull the plug. So don't sweat it.
I am still happy to push cristi. There are a few things that still stick out in her play. Lemme go get my laptop and pull them all out, there will be another post from me later today IRL.
That said I could happily switch to adalia, off the top of my head for suggesting ZFR should have hammered himself and for the fishy business defending cristi’s claim. I was also very much pro-bookworm lynch on D1 and nothing I have seen so far from this slot has made me severely reconsider that.
If she flips town Vitek will look more suspicious.
j/k I'm tired, leave me alone.
2) Ok, both the brig and a roleblocker can be anti town if targets are chosen poorly, but all town needs is a few lucky hits and scum are all but wiped out. Scum need 4 successful NKs and 4 town lynches from day 1 to win this without any roles whatsoever, how are they supposed to stand a chance with two cops, a roleblocker and any other roles possibly on the table?
And no, a Godfather doesn't cut it.
And...you do recall seeing me play as town before, right? Bouncing around and being overconfident is pretty much exactly what I always do.
Speaking of, the latter part of your post sounds a little bit too confident. Why do you think there is a cop just because there is a Miller? I created a game with a poison-proof player in a game with no poison mechanic. There are ways to balance around a cop + miller, but...none are a given.
Why do you think SPF is town? Why are you sure any of those other assumptions holds sufficient to undercut this one particular claim as unlikely?
I'm 100% reminded of RW not-so-subtly complaining about setup and "how could this ever be fair to mafia!" after flub's totally true and not at all fake Town Compulsive Arsonist reveal. Of course, with his knowledge of what mafia did actually have, he was correct that town arsonist! was imbalanced and thus a fake claim.
I can't believe we always leave out the Compulsive part when we revisit this classic moment in GOG Mafia history. That really was the clincher. Ahhh flub.
But seriously
vote adalia
still catching up
trentonlf
Easily amused
Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
Posted July 20, 2018
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted July 20, 2018
We have ZFR - claimed vanilla, reasonable suspicion. Not likely to be NK'd.
We have cristi - claimed PR, but not one likely to be NK'd. Reasonable suspicion. Not likely to be NK'd.
We have flub - flub. Not likely to be NK'd.
Any of them can be scum or town and aren't likely to be resolved without a cop read or a lynch. And it would take the rest of the game to clear them all by doing either (nevermind the fact the second one would require a cop to survive long enough to get and give their reads).
I know you're not likely to believe me, and for most I'm probably on that list too. But if you lynch me and I flip town, where do you go from there?
What does it tell you about any of those three?
What does it tell you about anyone else?
Sure, if I flip scum that's probably some indication of something, but I'm not going to so I'd like you all to least consider where you're gonna go tomorrow.
But presumably we have lynch and potentially NK flip info by that point, so...town survivors will know more than twice what we do now. If you were town, you'd have all of one confirmed flip (Vitek) on a player that never had any wagon or serious pressure, and plus your own PM. Right? Two more flips is a huge jump in knowledge regardless of who. But damnation would be more interesting if you're looking for specifics.
Though flip the script - cristi flips town, and bookwyrm isn't ready to rejoin. What are you gonna do tomorrow? What does town!cristi tell you about anything other than maybe making Vitek look suspicious, or maybe confirming that ZFR at least could be Godfather on lift's theory. Or not. Do you spend the day debating ZFR's Godfatheriness? Barf. D3 full claim incoming!!!!
But seriously, you can't really ping anyone for her D1 EOD wagon, and D2 wagon is still too early to say, and the day has been kinda disjointed so far.
As for the NKs why not include SPF in that matrix? You're really carving off players you think ...won't be NKed ever? town!ZFR, sure that one's a gimme. Also, scum!ZFR. Also a gimme. Just any ZFR.
town!cristi's probably not on the menu N2, but she's definitely in play for a future NK, maybe even N2 in a few rare scenarios depending on what toasters think they know. But N3/N4 in play in a variety of scenarios.
I also don't think town!flub is nearly as NK-proof as you present to the observant. This feels like a half-hearted argument based on surface stuff.
Why focus on flub not being NKed anyway and not like Ele, or HSL, or where in damnation is damnation not being NKed? While I'm not invited to night chat and my opinion is irrelevant, in present gamestate it seems strange to argue that kind of certainty. Or perhaps you missed it. Or perhaps you know he's town but have SPF just to lock him down all game, in which case, sure, you don't need to worry about his day play.
In any case, I think you're overstating several aspects of that case and in the whole it's just a weird argument to me.
come on adalia, are you mafioaster? It's fine. You can say if you are.
You'd be sparing bookwyrm from having to get caught up. Doing him a favor, really.
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted July 20, 2018
Hiyas!
Curious since you were in the Town Arsonist game, do you read adalia's post in #856 as confused townie desperately trying to understand the setup (though making no effort to theorycraft that any number of role combos could actually balance) to make sense of a backup cop claim, or an RW-esque "Seriously, mod, WTF all did you give town that this is balanced?" kinda moment?
Curious since you were in the Town Arsonist game, do you read adalia's post in #856 as confused townie desperately trying to understand the setup (though making no effort to theorycraft that any number of role combos could actually balance) to make sense of a backup cop claim, or an RW-esque "Seriously, mod, WTF all did you give town that this is balanced?" kinda moment?
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted July 20, 2018
Past my curfew. Hoping to come back tomorrow and see HSL reincarnated!!!
Went back and re-read RW. His post-game comments are clear that he was aware and that they suspected the flub fake-claim because of balance.
But in-game he made a number of posts in this line to cast doubt on a real claim as unbalanced:
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/mafia_28_everyday_life_in_grand_oak_gallows/post1242
It's unpossible!
I can't read adalia's post without seeing that echo. Yes, the claim could be fake but if not what does scum have (or what else, perhaps does town not have)? He just waves that line of thought away - which, to be clear, he's not the only one (trent, e.g.) to take this general tact that the claim should be doubted, but he's bothering to try and burnish the same claim with some legitimacy, but stops with a pretty selective argument.
"Just a godfather wouldn't be enough! Therefore it can't be!"
Which I suppose is a fair point if it's a 1-person toaster squad. We can't have all these roles against just a Godfather. Def. agree.
Godfather-strongman-role cop. There, off the cuff there's a pretty formidable squad even if you assume all claimed roles are legit.
Will lynch cristi if it comes to it vs no lynch, but ...reeeeally want adalia.
Went back and re-read RW. His post-game comments are clear that he was aware and that they suspected the flub fake-claim because of balance.
But in-game he made a number of posts in this line to cast doubt on a real claim as unbalanced:
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/mafia_28_everyday_life_in_grand_oak_gallows/post1242
It's unpossible!
I can't read adalia's post without seeing that echo. Yes, the claim could be fake but if not what does scum have (or what else, perhaps does town not have)? He just waves that line of thought away - which, to be clear, he's not the only one (trent, e.g.) to take this general tact that the claim should be doubted, but he's bothering to try and burnish the same claim with some legitimacy, but stops with a pretty selective argument.
"Just a godfather wouldn't be enough! Therefore it can't be!"
Which I suppose is a fair point if it's a 1-person toaster squad. We can't have all these roles against just a Godfather. Def. agree.
Godfather-strongman-role cop. There, off the cuff there's a pretty formidable squad even if you assume all claimed roles are legit.
Will lynch cristi if it comes to it vs no lynch, but ...reeeeally want adalia.
trentonlf
Easily amused
Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
Posted July 20, 2018
Curious since you were in the Town Arsonist game, do you read adalia's post in #856 as confused townie desperately trying to understand the setup (though making no effort to theorycraft that any number of role combos could actually balance) to make sense of a backup cop claim, or an RW-esque "Seriously, mod, WTF all did you give town that this is balanced?" kinda moment?
To me either cristi or SirPrimalform is lying in their claim. It could be something as simple as SirP saying he is a Town Roleblocker and is actually a scum one like has been speculated, but my money is cristi is lying as her claim if it's to be believed leaves her living for today for sure and if no dead cop tonight then tomorrow as well probably, lots of time for scum to create more confusion.
Scum are not going to kill either SirP or cristi tonight if both are actually town, especialy cristi. They will hunt for the cop and if they do find and kill whoever the cop is then cristi will be the next kill, and if they don't find the cop then the suspicion surrounding cristi and SirP escalates, especially SirP, for still being left alive and anyone but them or the cop dying. That's how I would play it as scum and neither SirP or crist were scum with me.
So back to your original question concerning adaliawyrm, I think it was a genuine town post.
Another thought I had also was that cristi could be some sort of neutral survivor and is hoping town doesn't want to kill her just in case she is needed and scum doesn't want to kill her as they would rather kill a cop if there is one in the game. That one is a harder sell as if there is a cop in the game and he ends up dead then cristi would be killed soon after with her claim.
ZFR
I love gold!
Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Posted July 20, 2018
I dreamt today the game was over. Cant remember who won or who was who but everyone praised one player (was it Lift?) for an excellent play he/she made. Then there was ice cream for everyone.
Shouldn't read so much before bed. Good morning.
Shouldn't read so much before bed. Good morning.
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
Posted July 20, 2018
Scum are not going to kill either SirP or cristi tonight if both are actually town, especialy cristi. They will hunt for the cop and if they do find and kill whoever the cop is then cristi will be the next kill, and if they don't find the cop then the suspicion surrounding cristi and SirP escalates, especially SirP, for still being left alive and anyone but them or the cop dying. That's how I would play it as scum and neither SirP or crist were scum with me.
This also answers adalia's question: I don't know yet whom I would want to vote tomorrow. That depends on (hopefully) cristi's flip. If she flips scum I will again vote the hell out of the HSL slot. And have a look at everyone who seemed too ready to believe her. If she flips town, however, I guess I will look quite suspect since I was pushing for her lynch. But I will suddenly be interested in SPF, since as trent said, it is quite likely that one of the claims we got is false. Also, should cristi really flip town then one of my main reasons for suspecting the HSL slot is gone. So that slot would drop back to neutral and I would have to evaluate it new depending on the actions of the new player. So I return to my point: lynching cristi is our best way forward right now. I could also get behind a HSL lynch or flubb. Or anyone but bler and trent, really, rather than no-lynching again. But we learn most if we lynch cristi.
Side note: I agree with adalia that flubb is on the 'will probably not be NK-ed list'. He is kind of scummy and always flubby and is too useful as distraction. His inscrutability always creates confusion and confusion is good for scum.
I'm also not really surprised that SPF survived the night and I even guess he will continue to do so. If he's scum, that point is obvious. But even if he is town, a roleblocker is always a two-edged sword and can hurt town if he chooses the wrong target. So he isn't as dangerous to scum as a cop or a tracker. This means scum might decide to leave him around, let town take care of him because he looks suspicious for survival and meanwhile focus on hunting the more powerful roles. Of course all of this is WIFOM and scum might think differently. We'll see, I guess.