I found ZFR townie day 1 (but would still have lynched him, you know me), but his out the gate attack on Hyper and Damnation rubs me the wrong way. Sure, it's crap that it went to no lynch and Hyper doesn't come out of it looking great, but neither do a lot of other people really. It should never have been allowed to get to that point in the first place, the fact that people couldn't choose from one of two or three possible lynches in 5 minutes really isn't surprising.

Ok, having done a reread I have completely misrepresented ZFR. The post I remember is one where Joe had actually altered the quote slightly;

He only changed the formatting and punctuation so obviously without having gone back I'd associated that as being ZFR's actual words (which can be seen here)

So, sorry ZFR, you didn't actually claim you would vote yourself. I still don't like your attack on Hyper and Damnation, but it doesn't look quite as bad if you hadn't previously expressed a willingness to self vote to achieve lynch.

Well... it is the logic which means you aren't necessarily scum so of course you are going to prefer that narrative.

Right, going to try and do some wagon and voting analysis now.

I apologise in advance for this wall of text.

So here's a list of everyone's votes from day (taken from vote counts so it may miss some, but I think it mainly covers it), no explanations or reasons just the votes.

1. SirPrimalform - cristi, bler, ZFR, -, ZFR
2. ZFR - lift/rabbit, Joe, bler, SPF, flub, cristi
3. littlerabbit/lift - ZFR, flub, ZFR
4. bler144 - SPF, flub, SPF, ZFR
5. flubbucket - Vitek, Damnation, lift/rabbit, SPF, cristi
6. JoeSapphire - ZFR
7. HypersomniacLive - trent, -
8. elebutterfly - bler, Book, SPF
9. Damnation - Joe, SPF
10. trentonlf - HSL, ZFR, cristi, SPF, cristi
11. Bookwyrm627 - Damnation, Joe, cristi, SPF
12. cristigale - flub, ZFR
13. Vitek - elebutterfly, cristi, SPF, cristi

So the three main wagons were (a flub wagon doesn't look like it was possible):

ZFR, SPF and cristi

And the people who voted them;

ZFR - SPF, lift, bler, Joe, trent, cristi
SPF - ZFR, bler, flub, ele, trent, Book, Vitek
cristi - SPF, ZFR, flub, trent, Book, Vitek

So SPF was the only player to be voted by enough other players to actually achieve a lynch (though obviously not at the same time).
trent was the only player to vote all three wagons (I'm gonna give him a town lean for that on the assumption at least one of them may have been scum).
A number of players voted two of the three wagons but not the last - Vitek (cristi, SPF), Books (cristi, SPF), ZFR (cristi, SPF), SPF (cristi, ZFR), bler (ZFR, SPF), flub (SPF, cristi).
A number of players only voted one wagon - Joe (ZFR), lift (ZFR), cristi (ZFR), ele (SPF)
Everyone but Hyper voted at least one of the three main wagons.

So what does this tell us?
No one voted cristi who didn't also vote one of the other wagons. That could just be because it was a last minute attempt to secure a lynch, or it could be because a number of those voters were scum and she is town (I don't find this likely as I know the alignment of two of them and find three more to be reasonably townie).
Joe never moved his vote from ZFR the entire game (which I believe was an RVS vote originally). Major scum points for that, similar to cristi sitting on flub for most of the game.
More people voted ZFR without touching either of the other wagons than anyone else, but also more people voted the other two wagons without voting ZFR. So there are a number of people who voted SPF and cristi and not ZFR, too many for them all to be scum (and one was Vitek who is now confirmed town). Doesn't mean there aren't scum hiding there but I don't see it myself at the moment.
So we could assume Joe, Lift and cristi are the scum team (and I wouldn't be surprised by that) but I think that's too easy.
And doesn't explain why Joe, lift and cristi didn't lynch SPF when they had the chance.
Other than trent bler is the only player to vote both ZFR and SPF, could be scum with cristi pushing the other lynches (and bler still seems to be very defensive of cristi).
But again, why didn't cristi help finish off SPF? Perhaps two scum were on that wagon (possibly ele then?).
The other option is SPF is scum, but he is the only player to vote the other two wagons and not his own. In which case looking at who tried to prevent his lynch or who jumped off quickest when he claimed would be interesting.

Not sure if any of that makes any particular sense to anyone else, there are a few trends that might be worth pursuing but it's hard to say for definite that anything is scummy.

Came on for a quick skim before lunch, and saw adaliabooks post #677.

Even if missing some wouldn't be important, attributing more votes than there were is presenting a distorted picture.

I'm tracking votes progressing using Krypsyn's model from game #51 (check the linked post for the format), and here's the full D1 picture:

cristigale - 5 votes (SirPrimalform 17/141; Vitek 53/251; Bookwyrm627 260/346; trentonlf 348/491; Vitek 403; trentonlf 562; flubbucket 569; ZFR 571; Damnation 597)
ZFR - 5 votes (JoeSapphire 57; trentonlf 156/348; littlerabbit 204/399; SirPrimalform 218/254; SirPrimalform 266/352; bler144 317; cristigale 398/447; SirPrimalform 407; Lifthrasil 484; cristigale 496)
SirPrimalform - 2 votes (cristigale 8/16; bler144 24/40; bler144 188/317; Vitek 251/403; Bookwyrm627 346; ZFR 353/535; Damnation 396/539; trentonlf 491/533; flubbucket 503/569; elebutterfly 509)
elebuttefly - 0 votes (Vitek 12/53)
Vitek - 0 votes (flubbucket 13/125)
trentonlf - 0 votes (HypersomniacLive 20/148)
HypersomniacLive - 0 votes (trentonlf 23/156)
JoeSapphire - 0 votes (Damnation 14/396; Bookwyrm627 66/260; ZFR 127/255)
Damnation - 0 votes (Bookwyrm627 6/66; flubbucket 210/257)
bler144 - 0 votes (elebutterfly 46/226; SirPrimalform 141/218; ZFR 255/353)
Bookwyrm627 - 0 votes (SirPrimalform 7/17; elebutterfly 304/509; SirPrimalform 352/407)
Lifthrasil - 0 votes (ZFR 9/127; flubbucket 305/395; flubbucket 418/503)
flubbucket - 0 votes (cristigale 16/398; bler144 40/188; Lifthrasil 399/484; cristigale 447/496; ZFR 550/571)


So, adaliabooks, where did you get the data you presented? And what sort of conclusions do you want us to draw from your analysis that's based on that? Perhaps more importantly, why would you want us to draw said conclusions?

No one voted cristigale? And putting aside that you missed her having voted SirPrimalform, you have her listed as having voted ZFR (that's where her vote was on at EoD1), yet you claim that she didn't vote any of the other wagons?


[emphasis added]

Not saying that SirPrimalform is in the clear, but what sort of argument is this even? Did ZFR and cristigale vote for themselves?

Where have I seen you before present a cocked up wagon and vote analysis in a similar fashion? Oh right, game #30... Remind me again, what was your alignment and role in that one?

Not sure what you mean here... I tallied up all the votes from Poppy's vote counts as I didn't have time to individually go through each post and count them properly and hadn't kept any tally. I'm not attributing more votes, the three wagon tallies I listed represent anyone who voted any of the possible wagons at any point, not a wagon that ever actually existed (though I think the ZFR and possibly cristi one also represent the largest wagon at EoD).

Yeah... while I can see the benefit of Krypsyn's model I don't find it very clear or easy to read. But thanks for providing it.

See above, I tallied each players vote from all of the vote counts from start to end of day. I don't particularly want you to draw any conclusions, I'm just presenting the data and some of my thoughts.

Try again. Not sure if this is language barrier or purposeful misrepresentation. No one voted cristigale is not a statement by itself, everyone who voted cristi at some point voted one of other wagons. I find that curious so I noted it.
The second part of the sentence refers to the people who voted cristi, not cristi herself.

The clarification at the end is because trent voted all three wagons. The only person to vote both ZFR and cristi was SPF. So my thought was was that scum desperate to push any wagon and save himself?
Though checking back at the vote tally SPF's vote for cristi was actually his first so probably isn't relevant as he didn't vote her again at end of day.
Which means functionally no one voted both ZFR and cristi other than trent (who also voted SPF). Which might well suggest one of them is scum and the other isn't and scum were trying to push the lynch one way or the other.

So yeah, my system isn't perfect but I didn't have time for much more.

I'll look at your count and see if it brings anything up any different info to what I compiled.

I'm going to guess scum but I don't remember which game you are referring to.

Another quick check in before dessert and coffee. Should probably skip dessert, and checking in (digesting in full progress), but wanted to quickly reply to adaliabooks to clear a big misunderstanding on my part.

Duh, reading your clarification, I realised that your list isn't <player> - <players that voted them> (as is usually the presentation, and the way I read it), but <player> - <players they voted for>. Sorry, need to go over your list, and comments/thoughts in light of this, and the clarifications you provided further down, so scratch my previous comments for now.


Definitely a language barrier; I'd never have phrased what you were trying to convey they way you did, so read your sentence the more straightforward, for me, way. Would it have killed you to phrase it as clearly as you did here for us non-native English speakers? I'm still not sure I follow why you pointed out that SirPrimalform didn't vote his own wagon though, as none did self-vote.
Anyway, as said, I need to reread everything again.


I actually think it's the best model to track wagons and especially vote progress (so cheers Krypsyn) - it tells who was voted, who all voted/unvoted them and at which point in the game (post #), and where and how everyone's vote landed at EoD.


The one you were begging trentonlf to claim Lynchproof Bulletproof Governor so you could steal his role. *wink wink*
Not sure it's still relevant though.


Dessert looks too yummy to skip... too weak, can't resist.

Yeah, I should probably have made that clearer as the other way is more common. I just found it more useful to see who had voted for who throughout the game and who vote hoped and who didn't.
To be honest the whole thing was done in a bit of a rush between eating and working as I don't have a lot of time (hence missing the fact SPF didn't join cristi's late wagon and had instead voted her earlier in the game).

I'll come back to it with a few more conclusions tonight or tomorrow morning when I have some time.

Oh, and because it feels wrong to not be voting anyone;

Vote crisitgale

Ah, that does make sense. Thanks for the insight!

So when you did the night kill, were you wearing a hat?

What is this, guess who?
I didn't perform the NK, but there is a chance I wear a helmet (I don't remember my character from what little time I spent with BG)

Ah, ok. Which one of your buddies did it? :P

Thank you for putting in all the work collating all that info. There was definitely a point when I was voting for (adalia)book(s)wyrm though... intentionally missed off?

As I mentioned I only went by the vote counts so if you voted and changed before another vote count was done I would have missed it.

The "once daily" vote count.

Lynch:

cristigale - 3 (trentonlf, flubbucket, adaliaBookwyrms)
HypersomniacLive - 2 (ZFR, Lifthrasil)

Brig:

ZFR - 1 (Lifthrasil)
Damnation - 1 (ZFR)

With 12 active players, it takes 7 votes to reach a consensus.

According to Hyper's count you voted my slot twice, both for short periods so I presume no vote count occurred at the time.

Ah yes, I suppose that must have happened. And you didn't fall for my clever line of questioning either!

I'm just joking, you seem a lot less scummy than Bookwyrm but I'm trying not to let you off his hook. I found him very scummy D1 but obviously you're limited in what you can answer about that behaviour.

Perhaps you said previously and I missed it, but why do you believe SPF, specifically?

So ...you think scum!cristi's entire game plan was to assume she wouldn't be on the table until the verrrrry end of the day where stalling would be a viable tactic?

No plan, then, for if she was on the chopping block at the midpoint of the day?

Or am I misunderstanding and you're bypassing HSL's question, but perhaps arguing/implying yes she may have had a solid fake claim developed for the latter scenario, but gambled and decided that "stalling" was her better defense in that moment?


Is..."a few" not mathematically considered to be less than five but greater than zero? I'm not seeing the problem here.

The second (deleted) point is taken that, yes, one should not spend 10 minutes composing the perfect post with 5 minutes to go, but...from my brief attempt to engage with EOD down the stretch I'm sympathetic to all of Joe/cristi/HSL's challenge of navigating that space, esp. with at least a handful completely off-line if I recall so the pressure all on them not only to act but act "correctly."

I can't recall - where you actually present in that time window, or are you judging based on a read after the fact?