And what was your backup plan in case it turned out you were the only town with 12 jesters?

To have a freaking laugh and be gloriously confused as to why I A) was a doctor, and B) how I could ever win.
I never said that setup was probable, I said it was possible.

Yes, exactly. Yogsloth soft-claimed doctor. That's why I had him as town in my post 1331.

If yogsloth is lying, then it could be him scum, instead of ele/Joe being GF.

Which would explain why HSL didn't vote me quickly when I was at L-2 on D1. His 2 scumbuddies were already on my wagon and he was wondering if having his whole team on me on D1 was a good idea (that, plus all the forum software issues caused him to make a decision too late).

Which would mean the scum team is: HSloth/Liftrabbit/SPF.

I'll have to look further to see if there is any contradiction of any 2 of those 3 being together, but in the meantime.

Unvote
Unbrig
Vote: Yogsloth
Brig: SirPrimalform

Damn it ZFR, I can understand both your version of HSL's non-vote and Wyrm's perfectly well... Yours proves he's scum, Wyrm's proves he's town. QED?

Okay. In the interests of clarity, I must admit the game start and D2 kill reveal compared to the D3 kill reveal are different enough to make me believe Joe was involved in the kill last night, and not as a cylon. I'm gonna roll with that.

I know, I know, WIFrackingOM, but I'm dusting off Occam's Razor here. This is getting slightly clearer as I think and read and think some more. However, no clearer to working out if there was a double-kill on the same person, or if SPF's block was successful.

Role recap so far, in no order:

FLIPS:
Vitek - Town Miller
Cristi - Town Deputy
Flub - Town Vanilla

CLAIMS:
SPF - Town Roleblocker
bler - Town Cop
ZFR - Town Vanilla
Joe - Town x-shot Vig
Damnation - Town Doctor
Trent - Town Vanilla

UNKNOWN:
Liftrabbit
Yogs (weird possible softclaim in post #1257)
Wyrm (PR softclaim in post #1120)
Me

I think it's likely that at least one mafia has claimed. Of that list, not the cop or the doc. Which leaves SPF, ZFR, Joe, and trenton.
I believe Joe's claim, on the basis that it's too convoluted to have faked and why, for the love of the lords of Kobol, would a mafia member straight up admit to the NK? That makes no sense, particularly as the flavour doesn't match. Plus I feel like a >1-shot Vig makes sense of the Deputy. Therefore one of trenton, ZFR and SPF is a dirty liar. <3 That list is in order of suspicion.

Yogs' softclaim is a weird one, it's prophetic and full-on implicates trent. I'm not sure what to do with that information. Other than ask Yogs directly what on earth he meant by that comment, specifically, "you should be hip to that" ? (Please not a meta reason, I can't take it any more! D: )

Why?

Because we have two conflicting claims now. A softclaim by yogs and a hard-claim by Damnation. Where Damnation claims to be a Doctor who also has some weird flavour Tracker ability thrown in. Which he uses to throw some more suspicion my way. Probably because I am the LHF out of the townies and the other people with suspicion on them are scumbuddies.

In any case if Yogs actually meant to claim Doctor with his softclaim, we will now have to decide whom we believe and the weird double role claim makes Damnation's claim look dubious. The question would be: why would scum-Damnation claim now? Perhaps to draw attention away from his GF?

Town-Damnation might see himself forced to claim due to Yog's softclaim ... only Damnation doesn't even reference that. So did he miss that while skimming the thread. Why did he claim then? And if he didn't miss it, why does he not question yogs directly about it? Nah, somehow this claim doesn't look like town-Damnation.

But, since there are already votes on him, I want a clear statement from yogs before deciding whom of these two to vote for:

@yogs: are you the Doctor and what do you make of Damnations claim?

Also:
unvote

Actually, you're right. And scum!Joe would mean that it was just him doing the NK. So again no evidence of a block. OK, my block theory was wrong. Also, you make some good points about ZFR. But right now I think it's more important to clear up the conflict between Damnation and yogs. One of these two has to be lying.

Current scum team theory: Damnation, Joe, trent ... although I am unsure about that last one. Could be ZFR too.

Oh, absolutely agree on this. But that's not how ele put it. Yogsloth is not on her claim bucket but in UNKNOWN bucket. Her CLAIM bucket is only SPF, bler, ZFR, Joe, Damnation, Trent. And she arbitrarily decided "it's likely that at least one mafia" is in that bucket. Why?

A hunch, boosted by my admittedly tenuous grasp of statistics. There are only 4/13 people who haven't claimed/flipped, one of whom is me. I am not a cylon. What is the likelihood that the other three are the mafia team, all laid out cleanly like that and safely anonymous? I feel that's a slim chance, particularly in light of this town's regretable tendency to back off the lynches of claimed roles (c.f. Day 1's non-lynch of a certain VT...). We had to push to get cristi through, even now-confirmed-town-bler was instantly prepared to back off (which makes a bit more sense now he claimed cop and cristi claimed deputy, actually, but the point stands).

Which makes me really side-eye Wyrm's PR softclaim, and yogs' to a lesser extent. And if you include those as "claims", there's only me and Liftrabbit who haven't claimed anything at all. That's not enough for a scumteam with 13 players. Therefore, at least one mafia member has claimed something. It's either one of the softclaims, hoping to avoid being wagoned, or it's one of the hardclaims.

Of those, trenton's VT claim out of the blue is the weirdest, particuarly in light of SPF claiming to have blocked him last night, and Joe claiming the kill. Swish goes the razor.

Still voting for trent, but would switch to SPF, or wyrm.
ZFR lynch is still too confusing to give good data, in light of D1.
Pressuring Yogs will have to wait until D4, there's no time Today. Assuming we're both still alive.

Pre-post edit : Wow Lift, that was quite a leap. Again.
If yogs really is a townie who is soft-false-claiming a protective PR, what do you make of him implicating trent ?
Why the hell would a mafia falseclaim doc as opposed to another role or VT? What about Damnation outright claiming doctor make yogs' soft-claim more believable than this?
You're really, really eager to suspect the claimed doctor for scum instead of the soft-claim protection PR. That's weird play. Plus it's like you skimmed everything Damnation wrote about minimal participation and chosing to claim due to either modkill or LALurkers, and due to being asked about it by bler and sort-of by Joe. That's why he claimed now. It's in his post.

(What's a GF?)

Also, by my own reasoning, Lift is scum on the basis of having not claimed anything yet. Which... is really sucky logic. But the above post doesn't help him in the slightest.

Pre-pre post edit:
ZFR I am not counting softclaims as claims... that's a recipe for disaster.

Again, it's exactly the same odds as any random 4-person bucket containing all scum. You can't use odds/statistics this way.

What. What are you even talking about? If yogs false-claimed he isn't townie. Town should not lie. Period.
As for why scum!Damnation might be tempted to false-claim Doctor, I already speculated. He might want to draw attention away from his scum-buddies Joe and trent. And the reason why I find Damnation's claim odd is, that he didn't only claim Doctor, but Doctor-sort-of-Watcher together with some false information thrown in.

And I notice that you didn't write anything about my question, while apparently referencing what I wrote. So I'll repeat it: why would town!Damnation claim Doctor at this point, unless it was to contradict yog's soft-claim. And if he did the claim because of yog's soft-claim, why didn't he refer to it even once? All in all Damnation's claim looks quite hasty to me. Like some after-effect of his extended absences. Maybe he is scum, came in, skimmed the thread, noticed that his two scum-buddies (Joe and trent) were both under suspicion. So, in a hasty attempt to do something, he claimed while throwing suspicion at yogs and me.

Or he is town, came in, skimmed the thread, totally missed yog's softclaim and decided to claim his role just out of the blue. Which scenario is more believable?

But if you read really, really carefully you might notice that I'm not voting Damnation yet. I want a clear statement from yog's first and then we take it from there.

Well... no not really? It can’t be the same odds because it’s not a random spread. It’s people who have decided for whatever reason not to hard-claim. Why is it the same odds?

Lift:
Fair point about town not lying, that should have read town!yogs soft-claiming a protective PR. Otherwise yes that makes no sense.

Damn says in #1316 that he will divulge his “information” if people ask for it before either being lynched or modkilled, and further down the page there was the first two votes of a really sensible wagon on him (I.e. LAL), In his claim post he opens by stating that this would be his last post of D3 due to RL.. How is that “out of the blue”?

He does however, say in #1316 that he’s afraid his claim will muddy the waters. Which indicates that he did clock yogs’ softclaim.

(And I’m an idiot, GF is godfather..)

EBWOP: LAL as in Lynch all Lurkers, I mean.

Hence my question: why (deciding not to hard claim) affects scum probability in such a way that you decided "all scum are unlikely to be in the haven't-hard-claimed-yet bucket"? You're effectively saying that (deciding not to hard claim) is less likely for scum which is why it's unlikely that none of them did it yet.

If I were scum I'd decide if/when to hard claim based on circumstances. If it's best for my team that neither I nor my scumbuddies hard claim, then so be it.

You partially answered me in "particularly in light of this town's regretable tendency to back off the lynches of claimed roles" which is a fair point and might make scum more likely to hard claim, but I don't think it's enough to justify a conclusion that " it's likely that at least one of mafia has hard claimed" based on that alone.

Your girlfriend is a godfather? ;-)

And I'm always a firm subscriber to the LAL tenet. No matter whether you spell it out as lynch all liars or lynch all lurkers. Both are valid.

So. Now we have to wait for yog's clarification and hopefully some more input from Damnation. With the already extended deadline closing in. Time-zone differences suck. We should go back to a flat earth! ;-)