My gut is just a mass of pain and making me really nauseous at the moment. I'll have to just give my thoughts and not going to go digging up posts like I normally would do.
TL;DR - Primary Suspect Pool:
Lifthrasil
JoeSapphire (with me as an additional casualty)
Alternately, Frost and Pooka are mafia posing as masons.
FrostburnPhoenix: So what's wrong with lynching the lovers? They'll die at some point, and since we have a Doctor, lynching two town lovers is slightly favorable to lynching vanilla town. It'll give us two shots at lynching scum rather than one and neither lover looks very townie at all at least to me.
PookaMustard: Okay, let's lynch Joe. In this hypothetical scenario, some events could happen:
- Joe flips Town, Catventurer Mafia. Win for us.
- Catventurer flips Town, Joe Mafia. Win for us.
- Catventurer flips Mafia, Joe Mafia. Victory for us but extremely unlikely.
- Catventurer flips Town, Joe Town. Lose for us.
This is assuming the whole lovers thing is true and the other dies if one is killed. Interestingly, Joe never mentioned if he'd die should Catventurer die too. Still, the reason why I'm reluctant to lynch the lovers is the probability of them being Town-Town is not unlikely, so if off them, we lose two Town. And Mafia gets one more at night. We'd be in a severe disadvantage most probably.
I'm inclined to believe that you and Frost really are Masons and not mafia posing as masons because the alternative is that the mafia team is Scene, Pooka, Frost, Lift and Joe. That's far too much mafia for a 12-person game. This also means that you really need to tell Frost that he should let you do all the talking and follow your lead.
Now the presence of masons is one of the biggest things that has me wondering if Joe and I are a Mafia (Joe) and Town (me) pairing. Masons know for a fact that each mason is town-aligned and can talk to each other at night. In comparison, lovers with no alignment confirmation and no night communication are extremely weak should both be Town-aligned. Even two Vanilla Town are better than lovers in this situation.
However if the Lovers are Mafia/Town, this is an extremely powerful role for the Town lover (me) if killing me also kills a mafia member. It means that the mafia will never night kill me no matter what anyone says. It also means that no matter how much a mafia member postures about lynching either Joe or myself, they will mysteriously get cold feet and never follow through with it. This would mean that my role gives me complete immunity from the mafia, and I am willing to take one for Team Town by voting for Joe if enough of you think that he's mafia.
As for Joe himself, his Day 1 behavior was very much all over the place. It really did feel like he was deliberately suspecting and voting for people that were on nobody's suspect list. If you still doubt me, consider that there was a point in Day 1 where I kept campaigning for us to lynch Scene and kept calling him a liar - not something that mafia would likely do to each other.
One thing that I can tell you as a Town-aligned lover is that I have no night actions at all. None. If Joe and I are Mafia/Town, then you only lose the equivalent of a Vanilla Townie that the mafia could never target.
I've also wondered a bit in hindsight if Lift's comment to me that his prime target was Joe was because both were mafia, and he was hoping that I'd reveal my role. If you look at the achieved mafia chats, they know who all mafia are and their roles on Day 1:
https://whyquicktopicwhy.proboards.com/board/21/archived-mafia-chats If both Lift and Joe are mafia, getting Joe's lover partner to reveal their role is going to ensure that the town doesn't vote to lynch either lover on day one thus gives Joe some level of protection. The fact that we're still alive on day two makes sense even if we're Town/Town due to the fact that the mafia is likely to go after someone else on night one in hopes of eliminating a power role.
On day 2, town might still be reluctant to eliminate the Lovers (due to the fact that at least one is going to be town).... thus Joe continues to have some level of protection against the town through me.
It should be noticed that Lift's reasoning for wanting to wagon Joe was entirely because Joe was willing to give DkKoba the benefit of the doubt that a lot of Dk's behavior could be explained by cultural difference. Lift, himself, was doing the same thing - wanting to give Dk the benefit of the doubt based on cultural differences... but the fact that he was acting suspicious of someone else doing the same thing just looked bizarre.