augh, do I have to analyse the data as well as creating it?? It's 1 am I need to sleep i'll do it tomorroowwwww

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yeah I checked it and I'm pretty sure I'm right and I do love dedo's response

unvote dedo

scums - give us a hint please? I'm really struggling here.

Catching up...
I did a quick skim and let's go backwards.

Dedo's Post #820:
While I'm trying to figure game balance too. It's hard to balance given given Town roles which may or may not have been claimed yet. We have a nerfed Watcher/Tracker; a Rolestopper who seems unable to stop a night kill, hence why not use it night 2; and an unclaimed PR from Razza.

This against one Goon and we don't know what else. There is just not enough information to determine game balance. Too much shifts depending upon Razza's and/or Babarks's role and alignment. As it stands, we have weak roles that would be consistent with weak scum roles, or we have more, and scum will likely be stronger.

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No, I perfectly understand how it works. It's just the way Babark came into it seemingly honestly confused how Frost died and why no one protected him. Only to make a claim and mess it up. I perfectly understand that in a vacuum, he could have been given a fake claim to use today if necessary and that Rolestopper could conceivably be completely made up. Yet, if he confused it because he's actually a Roleblocker, why not use him to block another PR while the partner makes the kill? The best explanation for that would be a partner with a more powerful and useful role than Roleblocker.

Either way, the combination of confusion about Frost's kill starting early in the day is consistent with this claim. If it's an acting job, bravo. I fell for it, but the way it was set up from day start makes me think Babark is genuinely Town. Now, if somehow we were to get through pinning down both Razza and Catte through either lynch or believable claims, I'd be forced to re-evaluate, but for now, I believe Babark Town.

Hyper Post #815: I was discussing the scenario of how Joe could still be scum. Assuming my result is true and not altered by some power (and I'd think I'd get a motion result if a bus driver were involved), then Joe did nothing (unless he has Ninja powers). In which case with a Goon already revealed, and seemingly at best, Joe had a 1-shot Strongman that was already used up, what "juice" does the scum team have left that has Joe staying home? I brought up Ninja, I guess we could have a Godfather or something that might be staying home. But if Joe is scum, their abilities seem limited or else Joe would be out doing something.

The scenarios where Joe isn't scum leaves plenty more room for another scum with a non-Goon role acting while the last Goon or weaker power performs the NK. And better reflects the game balance I might expect.

ZFR Post #805: Damn Joe and his complicated questions...
No, I did not mean that. So bump Babark to 2 and HSL to 3, If it was win right now, I'd Vig Razza as that is who I am voting and suspect the most. If I had the use of an Day vig and the game continues after its use, I'd Vig Catte as I'd rather hear Razza's claim. It doesn't have to be Razza, and there is a PR claim thus Razza has to get a chance to explain and a Vig shot would not allow that.

You thought I was sneakily trying to ask mafia why they targetted NK when he was such an obvious NK and would have been protected?
Then when they'd answer, it'd be HAHA! SO IT WAS YOU? :D

A thing didn't happen that I expected to happen and I got no indication of why and how, so I was seeking clarification.

so who were you asking, and what answer did you expect to get?

again, what sort of answer did you hope for?
had you asked lift about your result already when you asked this question, or not yet?

I can't know what I can't know, so it's not really possible for me to answer your question of what I was expecting to get. Maybe some sort of "Oh, it's totally normal, on D1 when a player claims a role and they're X level, and the player base is Y players, then it makes more sense for mafia to target them and town doesn't care", logic that I was not aware of? I don't know.

I had not asked Lift anything at that point, I wasn't sure if it was normal course of gameplay or something different.

Now to ask back at you, what perspective are you operating on with your questions to me, and what do you think the possible answers you get would mean? You stated you couldn't interpret what I asked as "Why wasn't he saved?" instead of "Why didn't mafia kill someone else?". So...if I meant one rather than the other, what would that change and what would that mean?

so you were asking why the mafia would target them?
I'm not saying you were asking the mafia why they would target, but the sort of answer you were expecting was "yes, it's normal for mafia to double bluff the doctor and go for the obvious kill" is that right?

It's kind of obvious why mafia would target them, no? Why would I didn't think there would be any complication in the reasoning behind that, but you're telling me there can be?

To restate that garbled mess of a sentence:

It's kind of obvious why mafia would target them, no? I didn't think there would be any complication in the reasoning behind that, but you're telling me there can be?

(for the record, I get your example in the sense of "this is complicated example reason", but if you're stating an actual reason for why it is so, then...I don't understand.

bump

Babark, I don't know if you have seen the movie "The Princess Bride" but it spawned a term used in Mafia, WIFOM meaning "Wine in Front of Me".

You can find a link to the video clip of the Battle of Wits on Youtube or elsewhere.

The point is that both the mafia and town knew Frost was a prime target.
The Mafia "can't" target Frost because he will be protected...
But Town "has to know" Mafia will target someone else so they might protect a 2nd target.
But the Mafia knows they might do that too...
And back and forth...

Now, on top of that, Mafia might have a power called "Strongman" that let's them kill even if that player is protected.
Think of that as developing an immunity to Iocaine Powder and putting it in both glasses....

yes, precisely. Basically, If that is the reason why you asked the question then it can't have come from the point of view of frostburn's protector, is my premise.

So I'm trying to understand why you did. And I'm not getting it.

What's the difference between:

"yes, it's normal for mafia to double bluff the doctor and go for the obvious kill" (my words)

and

"Oh, it's totally normal, on D1 when a player claims a role and they're X level, and the player base is Y players, then it makes more sense for mafia to target them and town doesn't care" (your words)
?

Are you asking me? Neither of them mean anything to me. When I gave the example, I was just giving an example of a convoluted reason that I wouldn't have known beforehand. I could've just as well said "The barbicockles of the nephtic mafia are tridivided among all the morphological units of town in this game".

Ha! I'm absolutely traumatized by that game but because of a very specific super-busted combo that made an already powerful role straight up broken which I consider the highlight of the game although there were other things as well. That along with the challenge you presented made me think you were going for something you apparently weren't. I suppose it doesn't hurt to explain so everyone is on the same page.

There was this game where the Town had a role called Desperado which is a form of Vigilante who can shoot during the Day. If they hit scum the target dies. If they hit Town the Desperado dies. Either way there is a mechanical confirmation on the surviving player from the pair. Pretty strong, right? Not strong enough apparently because the game also had some sort of Backup role who would copy the first [Town?] role to die in whatever way.

What happened was the Desperado killed a very suspicious Townie confirming them and died in the process. The Backup copied the Desperado power and later on killed another very suspicious Townie confirming them. The Town had other roles which were also problematic as Joe said. The pace with which they were confirming even the worst looking players was absolutely ridiculous. The game was unintentionally rigged to make it almost impossible for the mafia to win but it was all powered by the resurrecting Desperado to the point where the mod felt so bad he wanted to help us out which we declined because we're super cool like that.

When I thought Joe was hinting that he was that same role and maybe considering shooting at me I laughed as we also had a Copier flip earlier so it looked like we are in a similar situation. Then I reread the Frostburn's reveal and it only picks up powers used on them during the Night meaning they can never really replicate a Desperado role which made me think Lift (who I think was the 1st Desperado) actually tried to fix the brokenness of the original scenario and that made Joe's hints even more suggesting towards that game. Funny.

As for killing Dessimu - I totally wouldn't do it as it seems like a nonsensical kill to me. If he had flipped something strong then it's perfectly reasonable - they Rolecopped him N1 and killed him N2. Like they did me last game. The thing is I'm now lead to believe that may not really be the case after all and even though Dessimu himself as a target doesn't really make sense to me there may be a decent amount of sense to be found "around" him. This is just speculation from my end but I'd be surprised if I'm wrong about that as well.


I'm on my lunch break so I don't have a lot of time to go through the rest of the posts right now. I'll be on tonight.

Well, not that Frost's attacker would naturally ask that question, no. If you killed Frostburn you asked that to make it look like you didn't - because you can't understand why mafia would have chosen to target such an obvious target.

Now you say that you tried to protect Frostburn, so you did assume that mafia would have chosen to target him, and I don't think you've given a clear explanation what you wanted clarifying from that question.

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what does anyone else think? on the one hand babark's "I don't understand what Joe's getting at" seems genuine. On the other the scum-babark-killed-frostburn, asked-those-questions-to-look-like-he-had-nothing-to-do-with-it, then false-claimed-rolestopper is plaaauusible though I'm doubting it already putting it into words.


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and yeah I'd forgotten just how instrumental those desperadoes were in the whole process. Dedo's "sure clear me by blowing yourself up" seemed like a good enough response to me, though it could have been a bluff. But I do also believe he wouldn't have gone along with a Dess kill.