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JoeSapphire: how do you mean, confidence?
Confidence to guess right a second time around ;)
Speaking of it, just for post-game fun - did you make an early baseless guess on who are in mafia team?
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bucktoothgamer: Now where did I put that cannolli?
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RWarehall: This sounds like a confession! Can it be real? Did we really get a Day1 scum lynch?
^^ @joesapphire
i mean, it could have been sarcasm, but it was speculation of buck giving away being mafia?
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Dessimu: #371 @RWarehall. Since D1 and N1 are over, why did you ask not to use roles on Ambitionz?
This long and someone actually asked or noted it...

Because I have a role and it would have helped me learn something about Ambiti0nZ. I was also hinting at my role, which is middling, with the hope to draw the NK away from Frost who I assumed had a more powerful role. I changed my mind and did not in fact use it on Ambiti0nZ given the way the events transpired. Since Ambiti0nZ is very likely Town. I'll hold onto the rest to see how the day pans out. You ask why you are 6th out of 9? Because 7, 8 and 9 were there at the end of day and instrumental in the final discussions. Dedo, ZFR and HSL given the way this transpired are almost certainly Town. It would not have been hard for any of them to shift the lynch to me to protect their scum buddy. In fact even Joe with his "kill for any reason and damn any discussion" is more than likely Town. All it would have taken is 1, the gap between 4th and 5th is a chasm.

Dessimu - as to my reasoning.
1) Note, I didn't reveal any of that until a substantial part of the day had played out, so that info was useless to change anything on the record. People wanted to know my rationale for my votes and suspicions, I gave them those. I expect players to justify their votes. As to future games? Yeah, they can learn, sure, but what else can one do?
2) That's what I do for Day 1 where we know nothing for certain. I feel I get much better in subsequent days looking for different things that I can connect to facts and actions and how they relate to known info. Ok, so it might help them fool me on Day 1 where I can't say my reads were ultimately that good anyway. I mean, I had HSL on my scum list, was voting Ambiti0nZ who I no longer think is scum and similar with ZFR. Yeah I missed Buck at first because I thought he was a new player and read him by different standards.

Joe - I also thought our deadline was about 12 hours earlier because I missed the post where Lift gave a definite time. I was running under the assumption day could end at any moment starting at 3 am my time (which is Midnight West Coast) and was dismayed to find no one around. And I still avow that hasty, last minute lynches are risky and should only go through with good reasoning. What happens if your lynch target that you just flash wagoned isn't online and is the Town cop? Had no chance to claim and then where do we stand? Especially given the advantage scum have on Day 1, where in this case it only took 3 true Town to be either absent or wrongly convinced someone is Town to stop any scum lynch. Meanwhile, with 3 more votes, mafia can easily help pass a bad lynch.

Hyper - As wagons are fizzling out and people are looking for other options you made your post. So I looked into it and ISo'd Buck seeing you had a point and backed that point up. Seemingly most everyone else ignored it with the exception of Ambiti0nZ. If I were scum, I could have conveniently ignored it too. Even look at ZFR's post where he thought we had no chance to make the wagon work while we cross-posted. My vote was instrumental in helping that wagon move. I'd say that's a good sign I'm Town looking from the outside.

As to who are the 7 either present or voting? All 7 who secured the lynch. All 7 being necessary! If even one were absent or backed out with doubts, it wouldn't have occurred. That is how fragile our lynch was. And really it wouldn't have taken very much for someone to give a fairly decent excuse why they didn't want to join.
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RWarehall: This sounds like a confession! Can it be real? Did we really get a Day1 scum lynch?
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detective_razza: ^^ @joesapphire
i mean, it could have been sarcasm, but it was speculation of buck giving away being mafia?
ohhh. I thought you were saying someone was questioning whether the role would be revealed. And I was like hang on I don't think anyone did say that.

I am kinda tempted to take razza at face value here and say she doesn't know if bucktooth is mafia or not. What do you reckon, razza?
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JoeSapphire: I am kinda tempted to take razza at face value here and say she doesn't know if bucktooth is mafia or not. What do you reckon, razza?
Razza is a gal? I am not familiar with all yet.
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RWarehall: This sounds like a confession! Can it be real? Did we really get a Day1 scum lynch?
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detective_razza: ^^ @joesapphire
i mean, it could have been sarcasm, but it was speculation of buck giving away being mafia?
Looks like genuine (and correct) speculation to me.
Sorry, everyone, I was flying today, busy tomorrow, and gone during the weekend. My participation will be rather short.

I've read through all the posts.

a) bucktooth claiming Bomb - that's another PR lynch on D1 by a scum (as opposed to vanilla lynch). I was at least right that scum would go for PR on D1 (and vanilla on later Days). The claim was so strange I was very sure we're hitting Town and just going with a policy lynch. So again, gg bucktooth.

b) I see now why Frost thought it would be role madness. Given his PR and whatever flavour probably accompanied it.

c) I must be one of the few who sees babark as Towny? For some reason, I can't see scum!babark be so passive. Could be a survivor.
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Lifthrasil: Players:

1. Joe Sapphire as Mancomb Seepgood
2. ZFR as Ben
3. Babark as Bobbin Threadbare
4. bucktoothgamer as Manny Calavera - lynched D1, was possessed by Purple Tentacle, Mafia Goon
5. Catte as Sanspoof
6. Dedoporno as Guybrush Threepwood
7. (Lord Cephy) Dessimu as Prof. Henry Jones Sr.
8. frostburnphoenix as Max
9. RWarehall as Dash Rendar
10. Detective_razza as Elaine Marley
11. HypersomniacLive as Boston Low
12. Ambiti0nZ as Zac McKracken

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I think we can get it by PoE.

I'll exclude: HSL, RWarehall, AMbitionz (now that our issue is cleared, he's no longer a distraction either), Dessimu (based on D1 Cephy), dedo, babark and am left with:

Joe, catte and razza

And this is where our scum reside I think.

Does anyone think lack of Joe's bragging rights was because he's Mafia. I mean I know bragging rights were on my mind from the start, and Joe usually goes along.

I see there is already a vote on razza.

Vote Joe
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JoeSapphire: how do you mean, confidence?
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Dessimu: Confidence to guess right a second time around ;)
as in changing my vote to bucktooth? hm.


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JoeSapphire: you think RW is town, but I voted for him, and I was good at guessing in the last game.

So the logical conclusion is that Joe is lying? Not that you might be wrong?
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Dessimu: Well, yeah. I mean, the way RWarehall expresses himself does seem honest and helpful. He voted Buck. And Buck cross-voted him. I don't think it was mafia on mafia. Don't have that feeling. So, either you are lying and trying to mislead, or this time you guess worse. I admire your confidence though.
@any non-dessimu in the vicinity: does it make sense to you that that's what dess meant here? ^

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Dessimu: Speaking of it, just for post-game fun - did you make an early baseless guess on who are in mafia team?
i think i forgot! i'm gonna say.... bucktooth, someone else, and a third person.
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ZFR: Does anyone think lack of Joe's bragging rights was because he's Mafia. I mean I know bragging rights were on my mind from the start, and Joe usually goes along.
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JoeSapphire: i think i forgot! i'm gonna say.... bucktooth, someone else, and a third person.
Good timing.

Honestly, last night I was thinking to myself "Is there something off about Joe? Maybe it's just OMGUS because of our disagreement". But no, I think if Lift announced a surprise deadline in an hour*, Joe is who I would vote for.


*Do not do this. ¬_¬
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ZFR: a) bucktooth claiming Bomb - that's another PR lynch on D1 by a scum (as opposed to vanilla lynch). I was at least right that scum would go for PR on D1 (and vanilla on later Days).
whut?

"lynch" should read "claim"? still doesn't make sense.

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ZFR: I was at least right that scum would go for PR on D1 (and vanilla on later Days)
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ZFR: (and vanilla on later Days).
whut?


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ZFR: Does anyone think lack of Joe's bragging rights was because he's Mafia. I mean I know bragging rights were on my mind from the start, and Joe usually goes along.
pshaw 'goes along'

I mean I've definitely forgotten in a game before. I remember you saying in the end game that I never did one and me saying "didn't I? i'm sure i did"


have you looked at babark past games?

babark: were you scum in any of thegames you played before?
tbf I think there's something off about me this game, too

I keep looking at my posts going "that looks scummy af what the heck are you playing at?"
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ZFR: a) bucktooth claiming Bomb - that's another PR lynch on D1 by a scum (as opposed to vanilla lynch). I was at least right that scum would go for PR on D1 (and vanilla on later Days).
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JoeSapphire: whut?

"lynch" should read "claim"? still doesn't make sense.

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ZFR: (and vanilla on later Days).
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JoeSapphire: whut?
Sorry, I need sleep.

I meant this: if forced to claim, scum is likely to claim PR if D1, Vanilla if later Days.

As I wrote here:

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RWarehall: Another thing that bugs me are the people that walk away because someone claims "vanilla town". Um, you do know that the best (and practically only safe) claim a scum can make is "vanilla town". Anything else runs the risk of duplicating roles and getting called on the unlikely chance of two cops (for example). That is a bad reason to clear someone. I don't get it. To me, it's a better reason to finish them off. If you had a good enough reason to get someone to the stage they made a claim, and it's "vanilla town", finish them. If you aren't voting them for other reasons, fine. But for those using that as a reason to change their vote? Makes me wonder if they jumped on their buddy's wagon and found a contrived excuse to jump off to save their buddy.
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ZFR: I see your point, but in my experience the usual D1 claim for Mafia who are about to get lynched is a PR. They got nothing to lose anyway, so if they're going down they might as well get something: force a counterclaim reveal, or get a one Day reprieve. Off the top of my head (and these are just anecdotal examples) the few times we managed to nail a scum on D1 and get them close to lynch (scene in Arstotzkan Boot Camp, Carradice in Pooka's Egyptian game, trent in Lift's Fallout), they all claimed PR (trent had a safe claim provided) and lived another Day because of it.

(Though of course there is also always the WIFOM bit: I'll claim Vanilla because D1 Mafiosi will want to claim PR).

Vanilla is the best and safest claim later in the game. As you said, there is no counterclaim and you are not forced to provide any actions or investigative results from previous Days that could be disproven.

So Ambitionz's VT claim struck me as Townie.
(PS, thinking over it now, maybe the reason I got a teeny Town lean on Joe is because he read it the same way I did).

(off to continue reading... If anyone is here you can bump in case I need it).
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ZFR: Does anyone think lack of Joe's bragging rights was because he's Mafia. I mean I know bragging rights were on my mind from the start, and Joe usually goes along.
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JoeSapphire: pshaw 'goes along'

I mean I've definitely forgotten in a game before. I remember you saying in the end game that I never did one and me saying "didn't I? i'm sure i did"
nah, I'm only half serious about bragging rights. I had to remind Town!Joe to post his bragging rights.

But Poe is serious. PoE won't lie.

I also don't like catte's 504.

Joe, if you tell me which of catte/razza is your partner, I promise to vote him/her instead toDay.
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ZFR: Joe, if you tell me which of catte/razza is your partner, I promise to vote him/her instead toDay.
you remember when gogtrial got all smug with me last game?
EBWOP. Quotes messed up above
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ZFR: a) bucktooth claiming Bomb - that's another PR lynch on D1 by a scum (as opposed to vanilla lynch). I was at least right that scum would go for PR on D1 (and vanilla on later Days).
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JoeSapphire: whut?

"lynch" should read "claim"? still doesn't make sense.


whut?
Sorry, I need sleep.

I meant this: if forced to claim, scum is likely to claim PR if D1, Vanilla if later Days.

As I wrote here:

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RWarehall: Another thing that bugs me are the people that walk away because someone claims "vanilla town". Um, you do know that the best (and practically only safe) claim a scum can make is "vanilla town". Anything else runs the risk of duplicating roles and getting called on the unlikely chance of two cops (for example). That is a bad reason to clear someone. I don't get it. To me, it's a better reason to finish them off. If you had a good enough reason to get someone to the stage they made a claim, and it's "vanilla town", finish them. If you aren't voting them for other reasons, fine. But for those using that as a reason to change their vote? Makes me wonder if they jumped on their buddy's wagon and found a contrived excuse to jump off to save their buddy.
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ZFR: I see your point, but in my experience the usual D1 claim for Mafia who are about to get lynched is a PR. They got nothing to lose anyway, so if they're going down they might as well get something: force a counterclaim reveal, or get a one Day reprieve. Off the top of my head (and these are just anecdotal examples) the few times we managed to nail a scum on D1 and get them close to lynch (scene in Arstotzkan Boot Camp, Carradice in Pooka's Egyptian game, trent in Lift's Fallout), they all claimed PR (trent had a safe claim provided) and lived another Day because of it.

(Though of course there is also always the WIFOM bit: I'll claim Vanilla because D1 Mafiosi will want to claim PR).

Vanilla is the best and safest claim later in the game. As you said, there is no counterclaim and you are not forced to provide any actions or investigative results from previous Days that could be disproven.

So Ambitionz's VT claim struck me as Townie.
(PS, thinking over it now, maybe the reason I got a teeny Town lean on Joe is because he read it the same way I did).

(off to continue reading... If anyone is here you can bump in case I need it).
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ZFR: Does anyone think lack of Joe's bragging rights was because he's Mafia. I mean I know bragging rights were on my mind from the start, and Joe usually goes along.
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JoeSapphire: pshaw 'goes along'

I mean I've definitely forgotten in a game before. I remember you saying in the end game that I never did one and me saying "didn't I? i'm sure i did"
nah, I'm only half serious about bragging rights. I had to remind Town!Joe to post his bragging rights.

But Poe is serious. PoE won't lie.

I also don't like catte's 504.

Joe, if you tell me which of catte/razza is your partner, I promise to vote him/her instead toDay.
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detective_razza: ^^ @joesapphire
i mean, it could have been sarcasm, but it was speculation of buck giving away being mafia?
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JoeSapphire: ohhh. I thought you were saying someone was questioning whether the role would be revealed. And I was like hang on I don't think anyone did say that.

I am kinda tempted to take razza at face value here and say she doesn't know if bucktooth is mafia or not. What do you reckon, razza?
yes, i genuinely don’t know xD from reading, i just got the general consensus that it was believed to be a successful lynch (with HSL being congratulated for starting the voting of bucktooth and such)
i just wanted to make sure i was correct in thinking that, that’s all ^^

also yeah! @dessimu i generally go by she/her pronouns! it’s good to have you here :D