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General discussionGOG Mafia #73 - Soleanna's Supreme Guardians(1243 posts)(1243 posts)
(1243 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted August 16, 2021
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ZFR: Normally I'd say there's a low chance of there being a commuter in a closed game, but I feel it's unlikely Pooka scrapped that setup entirely when an extra player was added. How can scum!Joe be confident he won't be counterclaimed?
Catte speaking fax.

If Joe is a scum and aware of that list he would have thought he was FUBARed if he decided that was the claim that gave him the best chance to escape. Additionally, if he knows he's going down stat and he wants to make a high risk/high reward play why not just claim Cop and fish out the real one whom Joe likely already suspects to be Macho and won't be able to survive the Night if revealed? One already compromised scum trade for one of the most powerful Town roles seems like a pretty good deal to me.

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my name is supyreor catte: Throwing a godfather into the mix seems insane too. When you're adding extra scum to the game you wouldn't also give them an OP role like godfather.
I wouldn't call the Godfather exactly OP, especially in a situation where the Cop is Macho. Unless the Cop investigates the Godfather and lives to report about it the GF is nothing more than a glorified Goon. At this point ZFR is the only one who could benefit from the role but I'd bet a large amount of money he's not it, if betting was allowed.


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ZFR: I'm OK to vote Lift. His reaction to the Neutral claim request has definitely been strange. But I want Bookwyrm to finish catching up first.
I'm also withholding my vote a bit longer but it's going to be Lift or Wyrm.
Posted August 16, 2021
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Cadaver747: Not going to vote: Joe (but I don't trust his claim anyway)
...
Book's vote on Joe toDay is worrisome.
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Bookwyrm627: You don't trust Joe's claim, but I'm worrisome for voting him in spite of it? Okay.
Good point, I need to check who else mentioned it if ever. I do trust Joe is Town however something tells me that he is more powerful than just a 1-shot (or more shots) Commuter, that would explain his premature claim (in my opinion), and partially his *relaxed* posts.

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Cadaver747: Any Vote on Joe is worrisome, toDay especially.
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Bookwyrm627: Why? Does something confirm him as Town?
No counterclaim confirms it, risking his life to meet another Commuter confirms it even more. Don't you agree? We, the players, might have missed the part about Sign-Up role details from Pooka, it's possible and that Day was a bit chaotic with 2 role claims, but not after 3 real days suspend period, plenty of time to think and to check (but maybe I'm wrong here and it's plenty of time to play video games or do other stuff in order to move away from GOG Mafia game).

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Cadaver747: Joe claimed Commuter on L-2 on D2, ... That claim was super stupid to make for Mafia risking a counterclaim from a real one and a result swift lynch.
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Bookwyrm627: I've already said it in my previous post, but I'll re-iterate: What would make one commuter think a second commuter won't be in the game? Commuter isn't a role on the level of Cop, or even on the lower level of Doctor. Two Cops could easily be seen as OP, 2 Doctors not as much. 2 Commuters? That's barely a blip on the radar.
Hmm, I understand the part about 2 Cops or Doctors being OP hence impossible, but 2 Commuters? Well, I've never heard of it, however I've never played that many games. That's a very unusual example, I'll need to check it. But let's imagine there are 2 Commuters, what are the odds the second one would think the same way and keep his mouth shut instead of counterclaim with the goal to catch Mafia, I mean would he believe there are 2 Commuters? However he (the 2nd Commuter) could just wait it over a bit only to counterclaim later in hopes to find his partners in crime, dying in agony of Town lynch, willing to sacrifice his life to save others. Everything is possible, but I hardly believe that 2nd Commuter would keep silent.
A possibility of 2 Commuters is an interesting point of view though. I never thought about it.

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Leoric_AKA_Leo: We want your long and exhaustive analysis of bookwyrm
Dully noted. Who are We by the way?
Posted August 16, 2021
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dedoporno: Additionally, if he knows he's going down stat and he wants to make a high risk/high reward play why not just claim Cop and fish out the real one whom Joe likely already suspects to be Macho and won't be able to survive the Night if revealed?
When Joe was making his claim, Micro was already claiming Cop. No need to out anybody.
Posted August 16, 2021
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dedoporno: If Joe is a scum and aware of that list he would have thought he was FUBARed if he decided that was the claim that gave him the best chance to escape. Additionally, if he knows he's going down stat and he wants to make a high risk/high reward play why not just claim Cop and fish out the real one whom Joe likely already suspects to be Macho and won't be able to survive the Night if revealed? One already compromised scum trade for one of the most powerful Town roles seems like a pretty good deal to me.
I'm sorry, I don't think I follow. The part about FUBARed is clear, yet the high risk of claiming a second Cop knowing that the real one would not survive the night? How will it work? If one Cop is dead and flips Cop like he said who will believe in second Cop?
Posted August 16, 2021
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ZFR: When Joe was making his claim, Micro was already claiming Cop. No need to out anybody.
You're right. Doctor then.


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Cadaver747: I'm sorry, I don't think I follow. The part about FUBARed is clear, yet the high risk of claiming a second Cop knowing that the real one would not survive the night? How will it work? If one Cop is dead and flips Cop like he said who will believe in second Cop?
If Joe claims Cop the real Cop is likely to call him out, revealing themselves in the process. The setup from the sign-up contained the information that the Cop is Macho and Joe apparently was aware of that if he was making the Commuter claim based on it. Macho means he can't be protected which in turn means that once they are outed they are done. It's not about believing the second Cop. It's about dragging down the real Cop along with the already compromised scum. Anyway, ZFR is right that Micro had already claimed but a Doctor didn't so Joe could have went with that instead. Works in a very similar way as the Doctor normally can't protect themselves.
Posted August 16, 2021
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my name is supyreor catte: I'm sorry, I don't buy the Joe and ZFR angle at all. ZFR is pretty much lock-town and Joe ranks close behind. However, crackpot theories don't necessarily make you scum
But the more I read it the more crackpot it seems, for example

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Bookwyrm627: I think ZFR and Joe are scum. I'm not as sure about the third (and I think there is a third), but Lift or Dogmaus are by far my favorites.
So he thinks scum!(ZFR+Joe+Lift) is a favorite possibility, yet doesn't see that if that were true then we could have coordinated the whole "Lift is Neutral" thing way way better given our Day chat. He must think the three of us are terrible players to drop the ball like this.

Could Bookwyrm think so for real? He's usually much better at analysis than that.

Heck, he's the one who's usually poking at far fetched theories. For example, last game when we were (or rather you were; I was dead) discussing why Mafia chose a given NK target.

...

I want to hear from fully-caught-up Bookwyrm, just so there is no "oops, I still haven't read up to post X yet" before I vote.
Posted August 16, 2021
OK. Fine. With my limited and hard to plan availability here, I'll answer. That takes me a bit out of the picture.

Yes, I am neutral survivor. To make my life easier, I am also limited shots bullet proof. One shot was used up in N1, when I was targeted with a NK. Apparently I was towny enough on D1.

Now, I think this information benefits scum more than town. Scum already know thay I'm not scum and now they know that they can safely ignore me. If I were Town, I wouldn't lie. So now they know that I'm no dangerous Town-PR.

Town however can't just believe me. They always have to wonder whether I lied. So I'm not a distraction removed and no proven neutral. Just a claim.

Therefore I still think that Bookwyrm's asking was scummy. He asked for information that would benefit scum, but not town. Also, scum already knows that the NK on me failed. So they had a vested interest on finding hot more about me.

Well, those are my thoughts. What you do with them is up to you.
Posted August 16, 2021
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Lifthrasil: Yes, I am neutral survivor. To make my life easier, I am also limited shots bullet proof. One shot was used up in N1, when I was targeted with a NK. Apparently I was towny enough on D1.
Of course!

I'm now curious how Wyrm managed to pinpoint Lift as the Neutral Survivor (which role came out of nowhere by the way).

This is getting fun although I feel we can't go wrong either way here.
Posted August 16, 2021
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dedoporno: If Joe claims Cop the real Cop is likely to call him out, revealing themselves in the process. The setup from the sign-up contained the information that the Cop is Macho and Joe apparently was aware of that if he was making the Commuter claim based on it. Macho means he can't be protected which in turn means that once they are outed they are done. It's not about believing the second Cop. It's about dragging down the real Cop along with the already compromised scum. Anyway, ZFR is right that Micro had already claimed but a Doctor didn't so Joe could have went with that instead. Works in a very similar way as the Doctor normally can't protect themselves.
I see, so you meant Mafia sacrificing himself for a counterclaiming Town Cop . That would make sense since Cop can't be protected. Did you miss the part that Micro-the-Cop claimed (#408) before Joe claimed Commuter (#467)?
Posted August 16, 2021
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Cadaver747: I see, so you meant Mafia sacrificing himself for a counterclaiming Town Cop . That would make sense since Cop can't be protected. Did you miss the part that Micro-the-Cop claimed (#408) before Joe claimed Commuter (#467)?
I didn't miss it but I forgot about the order of events, as I wrote in the same post you are quoting now. I also provided an alternative that is just as good.
Posted August 16, 2021
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dedoporno: I didn't miss it but I forgot about the order of events, as I wrote in the same post you are quoting now. I also provided an alternative that is just as good.
I see, thank you. You also mentioned that Joe (if he is Mafia) could have gone for a Doctor claim. Probably, but I personally don't think so, ZFR is the only one whom Doctor might want to save (unless ZFR is a spectacular Mafia, the Godfather which I hardly believe). However I might not understand the game properly, would a self-sacrificing Mafia so early in game in exchange for a Doctor make sense, I don't know.

@All,
I don't like Lift's claim. I love Neutrals mind you and I think he is telling the truth. But his claim, it makes the situation for Town a bit worse, now Mafia will probably ignore him in search for the Doctor. Was it really necessary?
Posted August 16, 2021
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Cadaver747: I see, thank you. You also mentioned that Joe (if he is Mafia) could have gone for a Doctor claim. Probably, but I personally don't think so, ZFR is the only one whom Doctor might want to save (unless ZFR is a spectacular Mafia, the Godfather which I hardly believe). However I might not understand the game properly, would a self-sacrificing Mafia so early in game in exchange for a Doctor make sense, I don't know.
It's not about who protects whom. The point is that scum!Joe is making a claim (X-shot Commuter) that he knows might get counter-claimed. If he knows he's taking that risk why take it for such a puny role instead of fishing out the the big hitters? Sure, the Cop claimed already but that same setup includes a Doctor which is just as valuable target. That's what I'm saying. The claim is believable because it doesn't make sense for scum!Joe to make it. The main reason I was swayed in my opinion on Joe is exactly the fact that I wasn't aware of the sign-up game setup schematics but Joe apparently was. If that schematic didn't exist I would still be suspicious of Joe.


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Cadaver747: I don't like Lift's claim. I love Neutrals mind you and I think he is telling the truth.
I don't like it as it magically fit a suspicion that came out of nowhere. Also, I don't like the fact that the whole thing is being presented as anti-Town behavior which would assume it's in our best interest to work with it rather than against it.

What I wonder right now is if both are scum which one of them are they trying to keep in the game (if there is even such a preference)?
Posted August 16, 2021
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Lifthrasil: Yes, I am neutral survivor.
I don't buy this.

No way, absolutely no way, Pooka went from 2vs9 into 3vs8vsN. Strengthened Scum, weakened Town and added a Neutral? No way.

Unless it's 2vs9vsN, in which case as I said Pooka simply balanced it out by adding 1 Neutral. That I guess is possible.

There is nothing in rules that say 3 Mafia. Question: Can we take the 3Mafia PM as truth? It was a sample PM after all. The roles in them aren't real either.

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Lifthrasil: Scum already know thay I'm not scum and now they know that they can safely ignore me.
How convenient.

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dedoporno: I'm now curious how Wyrm managed to pinpoint Lift as the Neutral Survivor (which role came out of nowhere by the way).
No, no, no, no, no, NO NO NO NO NO. Heck no, no, no NO NO.

I don't care how the game turns out, but there is no way I'm denied of my braggin pelt again. *I* first pointed out Lift is a Neutral Survivor and if that turns out true post game, I called it as my bragging rights first when there wasn't even a hint of it being possible.

Bragging rights for me:

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ZFR: I'm not sure, and could be wrong. Could be RL issues or any number of reasons. Or I could just be plain wrong. But for bragging rights I'm adding: Lift is a Survivor.
No way anyone is stealing this.

But I don't think it's true.

Vote Lift

I think Bookwyrm and possibly dedo are his buddies.
Posted August 16, 2021
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ZFR: No, no, no, no, no, NO NO NO NO NO. Heck no, no, no NO NO.
Was it you? Even better. Why did you think it was him back then? It might help with figuring out why he thought it's a good idea to claim it now.


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ZFR: I think Bookwyrm and possibly dedo are his buddies.
Wyrm probably. Dedo - nope.
Posted August 16, 2021
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Lifthrasil: Yes, I am neutral survivor.
No fuckin way ZFR pulls that out of nowhere based on false premise and it turns out to be true.

Even if he is a survivor we can't keep him around. Survivors can side with the mafia at mylo for the win.

Vote Lifthrasil

(three votes of six, I think)
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #73 - Soleanna's Supreme Guardians(1243 posts)(1243 posts)
(1243 posts)