Posted July 29, 2021
ZFR: You've *got* to be kidding me.
It's bad. Town doesn't know how many lives they have. A Doctor/Blocker might save a life. A vig/SK might take an extra life.
In mountainous games, the better EV from NLing comes from the slightly better probability. e.g. 1/11 vs 1/12. As you can see the advantage is tiny. On the other hand, missing a Lynch drastically decreases your EV, since you have 1 less chance to lynch scum.
For an extreme case consider 3vs1. NLing improves odds from 25% to 33%. On the other hand if you miss a lynch at 2vs1, EV drops to 0%.
TLDR:
when in doubt, do NOT NL.
Microfish_1: 1) what do you mean by mountainous? also, yes, I'm too lazy/busy to look it up, plus I want your definition to make sure it's the same as the one i could find for myself. It's bad. Town doesn't know how many lives they have. A Doctor/Blocker might save a life. A vig/SK might take an extra life.
In mountainous games, the better EV from NLing comes from the slightly better probability. e.g. 1/11 vs 1/12. As you can see the advantage is tiny. On the other hand, missing a Lynch drastically decreases your EV, since you have 1 less chance to lynch scum.
For an extreme case consider 3vs1. NLing improves odds from 25% to 33%. On the other hand if you miss a lynch at 2vs1, EV drops to 0%.
TLDR:
when in doubt, do NOT NL.
If it is the case that NL is bad in this situation, why were you voting to NL?