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General discussionGOG Mafia #73 - Soleanna's Supreme Guardians(1243 posts)(1243 posts)
(1243 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted July 29, 2021
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ZFR: You of all people should know though that a "false positive" NL mistake is much worse than false negative. i.e. lynching someone when the correct play is NL only decreases town EV slightly. On the other hand, NLing when the correct play is to lynch someone greatly decreases EV.
I've only ever studied EV in the context of mountainous games so I honestly have no idea how it applies here.
Posted July 29, 2021
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ZFR: No. You can have power roles as long as they don't affect parity. i.e. they don't affect 1-lynch-1-NK cycle. So you can have Cops, Trackers... etc and it would still be right to vote NL if the number is even.
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Bookwyrm627: Alright, I'll bite. Was your No Lynch vote a tacit admission that you don't have a role that affects parity? Whatever you are, you aren't a doctor, a vig, or etc?
You've *got* to be kidding me.


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ZFR: You of all people should know though that a "false positive" NL mistake is much worse than false negative. i.e. lynching someone when the correct play is NL only decreases town EV slightly. On the other hand, NLing when the correct play is to lynch someone greatly decreases EV.
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my name is supyreor catte: I've only ever studied EV in the context of mountainous games so I honestly have no idea how it applies here.
It's bad. Town doesn't know how many lives they have. A Doctor/Blocker might save a life. A vig/SK might take an extra life.

In mountainous games, the better EV from NLing comes from the slightly better probability. e.g. 1/11 vs 1/12. As you can see the advantage is tiny. On the other hand, missing a Lynch drastically decreases your EV, since you have 1 less chance to lynch scum.

For an extreme case consider 3vs1. NLing improves odds from 25% to 33%. On the other hand if you miss a lynch at 2vs1, EV drops to 0%.

TLDR:
when in doubt, do NOT NL.
Posted July 29, 2021
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ZFR: It's bad. Town doesn't know how many lives they have. A Doctor/Blocker might save a life. A vig/SK might take an extra life.

In mountainous games, the better EV from NLing comes from the slightly better probability. e.g. 1/11 vs 1/12. As you can see the advantage is tiny. On the other hand, missing a Lynch drastically decreases your EV, since you have 1 less chance to lynch scum.

For an extreme case consider 3vs1. NLing improves odds from 25% to 33%. On the other hand if you miss a lynch at 2vs1, EV drops to 0%.

TLDR:
when in doubt, do NOT NL.
Makes sense, but I am enjoying winding Lift up so it's swings and roundabouts.
Posted July 29, 2021

vote JoeSapphire
Posted July 29, 2021
(no votes in this post)
++++++++++++++++++++

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Lifthrasil: Sigh. Four votes for No-lynch? To the townies among the NL voters: you want us to lose the game, do you?
It's early on D1, my friend...time to have fun and not be so serious, I think(which is what I assume everyone was doing with the NL votes).....also we are still a good distance away from a NL at the moment, and to be extra sure I took my vote off.

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Lifthrasil: To the new players: no-lynch on Day 1 is very, very bad for Town. The only way we can reliably gain information is by lynching people, looking at their flip and then discussing their wagon that led to their lynch.
You seem to have forgotten to mention that we can also gain info from reading what people say/don't say and whom they vote/don't vote, and when such occurs.

Also such wagon analysis only works if people do it(in some past games people rarely seemed to do much of such) ;)

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Lifthrasil: vote Joe

He's the one who jumped at ZFR's joke vote and started a no-lynch train.

Also, it's Joe. He is always suspicious! ;-)
So none of the others who voted for NL(like myself) after the first NL vote are as suspicious? o.0 ;)

+++

To All

I gotta go do some stuff IRL, but will try to post some more replies soonish.

Reagan backs up his camel into an available space, and goes into another room to do some chores and other assorted errands.
Posted July 29, 2021
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Bookwyrm627: Alright, I'll bite. Was your No Lynch vote a tacit admission that you don't have a role that affects parity? Whatever you are, you aren't a doctor, a vig, or etc?
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ZFR: You've *got* to be kidding me.
Mostly. I've got just one more in mind if circumstances present on D1. I know we're mostly diametrically opposed on No Lynch, but I hope you'll bear with me.
Posted July 29, 2021
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Bookwyrm627: I've got just one more in mind
One more what?
Posted July 29, 2021
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PookaMustard: ~ or wait about 13 minutes to safely post another time.
False. They only need to refresh the thread until their posts says "11 minutes ago" and they are golden. You are fake news!


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Bookwyrm627: This again? Fine, let's get it over with.

Vote No Lynch.
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Bookwyrm627: Alright, I'll bite. Was your No Lynch vote a tacit admission that you don't have a role that affects parity? Whatever you are, you aren't a doctor, a vig, or etc?
Horseshit.


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ZFR: One more what?
I have one idea about it but I won't making explanations on Wyrm's behalf. He'll have to explain himself eventually.


All caught up.
Posted July 29, 2021
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PookaMustard: ~ or wait about 13 minutes to safely post another time.
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dedoporno: False. They only need to refresh the thread until their posts says "11 minutes ago" and they are golden. You are fake news!
NO U!
Posted July 29, 2021
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ZFR: TLDR:
when in doubt, do NOT NL.
Then WHY are you still voting NL?
Posted July 29, 2021
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ZFR: TLDR:
when in doubt, do NOT NL.
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Lifthrasil: Then WHY are you still voting NL?
This is why. See also post #48.
Posted July 29, 2021
05 "The Votecount" Votecount

No-Lynch (4) - ZFR, JoeSapphire, Bookwyrm, catte
JoeSapphire (2) - Lifthrasil, dogmaus

Not voting: Mango, Microfish, flubbucket, Leoric, dedoporno, Gym
It takes 7 votes to reach majority. Closest to lynch: No-Lynch (L-3)

5 days, 2 hours to deadline.
Posted July 29, 2021
high rated
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Lifthrasil: vote Joe

He's the one who jumped at ZFR's joke vote and started a no-lynch train.

Also, it's Joe. He is always suspicious! ;-)
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GymHenson: So none of the others who voted for NL(like myself) after the first NL vote are as suspicious? o.0 ;)
Of course you are. Everything who jumped on the NL-wagon is suspect. As is Bookwyrm for role fishing. But I have only one vote and between several equally suspect players, Joe get's the vote for historic reasons. For now.

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Lifthrasil: Then WHY are you still voting NL?
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ZFR: This is why. See also post #48.
So all this just to rile me up? Great. I feel honored. But what's next? Starting to lie just to annoy me (and make the game more difficult)?

Explanation to the new players: Townies that lie is another pet-peeve of mine. Townies should NEVER lie. The can and should omit information, especially when they have Power-roles, but they should never lie. The reasoning is this: Scum has to lie. Deception is part of their role after all. So if Townies stick to the 'never lie' tenet, we can just follow the "Lynch all liars" principle. Which has served well in the past. If Town doesn't lie, anyone caught at a lie can't be Town, after all.
Posted July 29, 2021
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Bookwyrm627: I've got just one more in mind
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ZFR: One more what?
I'm not sure what descriptive word I want to use. Quip, maybe? Not really a zinger, but quip implies more wit than will be present.
Posted July 29, 2021
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Bookwyrm627: Alright, I'll bite. Was your No Lynch vote a tacit admission that you don't have a role that affects parity? Whatever you are, you aren't a doctor, a vig, or etc?
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ZFR: You've *got* to be kidding me.

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my name is supyreor catte: I've only ever studied EV in the context of mountainous games so I honestly have no idea how it applies here.
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ZFR: It's bad. Town doesn't know how many lives they have. A Doctor/Blocker might save a life. A vig/SK might take an extra life.

In mountainous games, the better EV from NLing comes from the slightly better probability. e.g. 1/11 vs 1/12. As you can see the advantage is tiny. On the other hand, missing a Lynch drastically decreases your EV, since you have 1 less chance to lynch scum.

For an extreme case consider 3vs1. NLing improves odds from 25% to 33%. On the other hand if you miss a lynch at 2vs1, EV drops to 0%.

TLDR:
when in doubt, do NOT NL.
1) what do you mean by mountainous? also, yes, I'm too lazy/busy to look it up, plus I want your definition to make sure it's the same as the one i could find for myself.

If it is the case that NL is bad in this situation, why were you voting to NL?
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #73 - Soleanna's Supreme Guardians(1243 posts)(1243 posts)
(1243 posts)