I left the house in the hour of noon, EDT (GMT -4, or 1600 GMT) , and came back around the hour of 11Pm- midnight, EDT (0300-0400 GMT). at this point, I did a bit more IRL with the family and then went to bed. At no point in the intervening hours did I have access to wifi or my computer.

Also, to someone else, when i hovered over them, Flub was online. I saw that page 6 existed (kinda hard to not after the post posts), saw Flub at the top of page 6 was "online", and exited the net.
Again, my big mistake was in opening my computer that day at all. I would have been better off, it seems, to ignore the game on D1 -0 Hour than to play. My apologies, if they are needed. But I am town.
(hmm...is there an acronym for "I'm playing so badly I must be town?" :P )

Also, yeah, i do get that chances of something always being some-particular-thing go down exponentially the more dice you add, but the individual chance is the same.

Offhand, I'd be interested in the math behind the chances that when rolling 3 consecutive 12-sided dice, the same number came up for each dice.

haven't read beyond this point.

+++++++++

I'm glad You're still here @Dogamaus
This sniping is usually significantly less so when there's actually been something that happened. Instead, we find a pretty kettle of fish (pun intended) complete with accusations of "you're to blame for this spot," counter-accusations of "you look too much like a countertop", and muddled "yay, but huh?!"

++++++

Also, whoever said that scum wouldn't abstain from a NK for w/e reason... when the scene-thing happened that once and town was outed out of spite, i do believe that scum skipped their turn for the sake of fair play.
And last game, when something happened seriously IRL to someone, scum avoided their preferred target until said person was able to rejoin the game.

"derpclear"

Not an acronym though.

1/144

First dice doesn't matter, the second has 1/12 of getting the same number, and the third again 1/12.

No, they never did. They went ahead and NKed.

They frikin NKed me then.
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_67_mamlakat_al_shams/post1051

Er... what?


-----

Flowers, puppies, sunshine, happy happy joy joy happy happy joy joy

You have to give me something to work with. The most notable things I've seen in your posts this game are 1) Requests for bumps, even in posts that are only for joking commentary, and 2) Presenting ideas that look rather absurd or are demonstrably wrong (ex 1: I might be scum because I'm offering suggestions on playing to a newbie in the game thread; ex 2 Micro is less likely to be scum this game because he was scum last game).

Because my time is limited and I'm not convinced you actually care or will interact with my answer to your question. After all, you're asking for existing data that you apparently didn't do anything with the first time around.

Adalia Fundamentals is available to help dig out just my posts in the thread, and a simple browser Ctrl+F would help you find their names from that list. If you're not willing to do some basic footwork to check your information (ex. you talked in multiple posts about lurker scum in previous games, but apparently never actually verified it yourself despite how simple the verification is), then I'm not inclined to do it for you.

You do you. You requested advice, I gave it.

---

It feels a lot like the 9th day of Day 1. Doesn't seem particularly quick to me, especially because I know you're not going to get speed lynched. There simply aren't enough players in this game that would be willing to speed lynch anyone.

It doesn't look concrete at all to me. Looking at 204, you said "Would vote to avoid NL: anyone who played in game 72 who is also in game 73 (except me).", which means you would vote GH (present in game 72). You did suggest that the game might be benefit if GH is spared for a Day or two because he talks.

Just add in Catte and Dedo to get the End of Day 1 failed lynch wagon, so I wouldn't be surprised. Doesn't mean you aren't scum.

---

I took a look at your Day 1 posts, and I see 3, maybe 4 posts from you that have game content, and even that was kind of sparse.

Post 49 - Just a vote. Nothing else.
Post 74 - "Lift was convincing"
Post 78 - [Expands a little on Post 74.]
Post 149 - "Waiting to hear about Mango's vote on me".

I respect being busy, and feeling sick sucks, but I stand by my assertion. You (generic you) can't be read if you don't post much, which means you can't be cleared as Town. Show us your thought process, whom you agree with, whom you disagree with, which people you think are more likely to be town or more likely to be scum, and why you think that.

Speaking solely for myself, upvotes and downvotes are indicative of nothing. Anyone, including people outside the game that have a grudge against someone, could be silently up-/down-voting posts.

What he typed for a name didn't even remotely fit anyone else's name, while being very similar to yours (Dogmaus vs Dogmatic. I wouldn't have been surprised if it was accepted.

Sigh. I somehow believe Micro. Like Joe said this feels like a deja vu and going for low hanging fruit.

Vote MangSenpai for now.

I'm here and catching up.

Now I'm triggered.

I see that later on you have switched but was this serious back then?


Sure but it's GH so might be accidental. Who knows.

And the Oscar goes to...

RL OK but you knew it was deadline at this point. You had time for jokes but didn't have time to seal the lynch or at least tell everyone you are 100% against it and rathe have a NL than GH lynched. OK for not being dead set on GH at that point it was obviously him or no one. You clearly chose no one.

Drumroll....


Gambler's Fallacy.


Second time you mention something as not guaranteed that is part of the official rules of the game.


Three.

Wow, chill. I'm always letting people know when I have a lot of content to go through so they can wait for me if they feel like talking to talking to me or ask me questions.

It was clearly stated in the sign-up and confirmed in the scum sample PM.


I do, too. Her frustration feels genuine.


But is the max 10 or 100?


Yes, LAMIST.

I think you're mixing up games as I have no recollection of this happening. You should know as you were one of the scumz that game along with Catte.


Phew, finally all caught up.


I don't have a lot to say about Mango and Leoric.

Mango has been away from the game for long enough to considered as someone needs replacing (personal opinion) so I think it should be handled by the mod rather than a lynch but if unless we get a better wagon going I guess it will do.

Leoric oozed pretty Townie vibes Yesterday but he is almost as absent as Mango which is not great.

Dogmaus annoyance after getting called out for not posting that much and not pushing GH's wagon felt genuine which is more often more indicative of Town rather than scum.

Micro and Flub failed to seal the lynch.

Micro has provided RL excuse for going AFK which I don't doubt but I still feel he could have done a bit more about it rather than making his last game post a joke. Some uneasiness carried over from Yesterday.

I didn't see Flub being online at the time of need but apparently he was so minus points for letting NL happen. Other than that he's been mostly himself so I don't have any deeper feelings about him.

Lift, as usual, feels very close to my own thoughts so I have no idea. Could be either alignment.

Yesterday I felt Bookwyrm was more likely to be Town than scum and that hasn't changed a whole lot. Still middling but a lot Townier than others.

ZFR has felt weird for a while - I don't think I've seen him as aggressive before as he has been in this game. Some small bits and pieces that look a bit strange.

Catte and Joe I haven't looked too hard at (I do look at Joe while he bathes but that isn't game related), not sure about either.

GH is his usual self. I've never seen him as scum so I don't know if and to what extent his game differs. His game today hasn't really changed since Yesterday so if he's managed to keep a consistent look and feel AND dodge bullet like he did - good job.


I feel the scumz are likely among Micro, ZFR, Catte, Joe and Mnago (not in any particular order). I'd be fine with voting anyone of these fine gentlemen.


If GH is Town than Flub is likely one as well.

Yeah, that was what I was thinking of......I dumbly thought it meant that there would be a markedly less chance of Micro being scum this game as a result. Thankfully several others helped out and explained it to me. :)
(of course that said: don't wanna vote Micro as I still like their company, but I will if there's no other option around EOD)

Lol

*FDR rolls in* "Does Polio Count?" ;D *FDR rolls out*

On the bumps: I sometimes have a few people to reply to, and want to give everyone their own "ping" so they know I replied to them(as in the past some seemed to miss replies to them because they didn't get pinged), and also don't want to have to wait too long to make all my posts(such as if I have IRL to attend to around the same time).

All I can say is: to me they make sense, even if they might not make sense to others
(also sometimes I don't say what I mean correctly, leading to people not getting the actual idea in my head that i'm trying to ask/talk about)

Well I do try to reply to most replies people make to me in these games....that said, you're right in pointing out that I fail to act on the info I get in a number of instances(due to laziness or forgetfulness, or a combo of the two).

Sorry if that came off a bit harsh....I just feel like I get flak no matter what I try sometimes, and that can become a bit daunting/offputting(correct terms?).

(no votes in this post)
+++++++++++++++++++

Thanks for the link(I skimmed it after fixing it).

My weird theory is that maybe(of course being me and all, I there is a good chance i'm wrong yet again....also hope i'm saying this all correctly) he's a third party and needs to be lynched in order to win....etc etc.

And oddly enough, it's after I stated that i'm ok with being the lynch. Crazy, huh?

I'd also vote any on that list, except maybe ZFR(am a bit hesitant after their early play in this game....seems a bit off, as you said). Also i'm starting to suspect Micro a bit now(due to points others raised, gut feeling, etc...dunno if i'm saying this right), so I would vote them.....but only if there's no other option(I like their posts as well, and like having them around, but want to avoid another NL).

+++

Game Update
(to all players)

Caught up for now......minus some joke post stuff I might post later.

Just in case it isn't clear: No. That was a joke. I meant for it to be just the exact way I started D1, because you know, NL and no-NK so we're just where we started and D2 is an exact copy of D1. Then after posting I thought maybe time of jokes is over, so changed it as soon as Bookwyrm bumped me.
If you were there you could see it was 3-4 mins difference between the two posts.

...?

a) What was the first time?
b) It's not really in the rules, though you're right it is mentioned in the example scum chat.

13 "Prodding worms into the ocean" Votecount

Microfish (3) - Bookwyrm, JoeSapphire, Lifthrasil
MangoSenpai (1) - ZFR
JoeSapphire (1) - dogmaus

Not voting: Microfish, flubbucket, GymHenson, catte, Leoric, Mango, dedoporno
It takes 7 votes to reach majority. Closest to lynch is Microfish (L-4).

5 days and 1 hours left.
Regarding Mango, if I don't see him online by tomorrow, I'll get Cadaver in his place instead. Also, I am getting pretty tired of prodding people over and over this game, so expect more PMs telling you the game is ongoing.

Wasn't gonna post that bit(sometimes I write reply bits that I might post, and either keep em in or remove em), but forgot to trim it out before I removed it.

That said, that bit was supposed to have a ;D at the end of it and only be slightly(half?) serious....more a joke bit of my post than much else.
(i.e. me jokingly commenting how I can't get lynched when I actually am ok with such....etc etc)

Thanks

Also: as I believe I said in an earlier post, I contemplated it.....if only to remove myself as a distraction in the game to give town a better chance.....but decided against it in the end.

Good advice(also that is why I try to always give the OP posts at least a quick skim at the start of each game).

I'm satisfied with your answers, catte.
And Lith. Micro...I'm reading all you people, I just don't feel like editing a complex post tagging everyone with the powerful tools made available by the GOG forum.

I am quite suspicious of Bookwyrm. Dedo, I read town. Mango, I am undecided but if they have disappeared from the game at all it doesn't matter at this point. Hopefully they are just busy and nothing serious IRL.
Of course I might be completely on the wrong horse.
I might reconsider my vote for the best of Town during the next days.