Lifthrasil: Would also vote Bookwyrm or flubb, but more on that later,
ZFR: Is it later yet?
Yes, it is. Sorry, I forgot to discuss this since the NL that happened had more weight.
Boowyrm was on the NL wagon too. And he did attempt some role-fishing. Even though he declared that as a joke afterwards. Not strong reasons, but then none of the reasons on D1 were.
Flubb was just popping in and out of the game without contributing much. That is usual flubb D1 style, however I still felt that he was holding back with the voting. Especially after declaring that he'd support a GH lynch, he didn't bother to vote. Instead he voted Joe, for his absence. And didn't bother to reply to my question whether Joe's absence was the only reason for that vote or whether there was something more.
Bookwyrm reads much townier Today. But flubb not so much. For flubb, just like for micro, the not hammering looks bad.
Other observation: ZFR is quite abrasive today. You OK, ZFR? Or is something in RL stressing you?
Lifthrasil: dogmaus, Mango: absence. Are they overwhelmed with being scum and don't know what to write? Or did they lose interest in the game, after noticing that it does require quite some attention?
Dogmaus: I can't talk for Mango but I'm not absent. I could think that this is something made up by scum to make townies suspect me? I've been checking the game, following and posting when necessary. I don't see how interventions like post 327 can make someone less suspicious, and their lack more. Scum doesn't have a limited number of posts available so it's nonsense.
Nice that you're active now. And yes, you're right. Placeholder-posts like #327 don't tell us anything about the alignment of the poster. However, some players find playing scum convincingly difficult. As scum, you have to take care about everything you write to avoid self-contradictions and accidental slips. As town, you can just write what you think as you think it. No need for tailoring your posts. Therefore, writing is more difficult for scum and experience shows, that especially new players sometimes are very silent when playing scum, because they are afraid of posting something wrong. ... But again, writing nothing and writing placeholders like #327 are equal in use. Scum can very well try to coast along under the radar of everyone by posting noncommittal posts now and then without actually saying much.
Then again, there are also scum who post volumes of (pseudo-)analysis, so that they appear very invested. But that strategy usually comes with experience.
About the three scum assumption: that, again, is just a standard value. In normal games, about a quarter of the players are Mafia. We are 12 players and so 3 scum is a reasonable assumption. Unless our mod balanced the game somehow differently.
GymHenson: Btw, a question: will you be doing a more in depth wagon analysis?
(I know we didn't get a complete wagon, but we came very close and i'd love to see you do some more analysis and share your thoughts in greater detail)
I won't have the time to do so on the weekend. My mother comes for a visit after more than a year of not having seen each other due to Covid. So I'll be quite busy. Also, wagon analysis has the most value if it is based on a flip. So that we know whether it was a mis-lynch or not. In you case, we don't know your alignment. But still, it would be useful to analyse all the movements on and off wagons on D1.
About your statistics question: yes, every game is uncorrelated to the previous game. That's the strange thing about statistics. Rolling 6-6-6 is quite unlikely. However, if you have already rolled 6-6 that doesn't make another 6 less likely than any other specific number on the die. The roll will still be independent with a 1/6-th chance of another 6 and a 5/6-th chance for a non-6. Just like it would be if you hadn't rolled the die before ... But we can discuss this post game in more detail. I don't want to derail the game.
