And you couldn't list them here in a brief summary or at least tell me which posts to check specifically because?

To me I see it as more like the same die rolled twice.....as in what would the odds be that it would turn up on a scum result both times.

That said, I would be willing to lynch Micro if no other wagon was viable(especially as they could be scum and could be trying to pocket me in this game).

Irrelevant to others, perhaps, but not necessarily seen as such by me in all instances.

Or maybe other players could compensate and adapt? I already changed somewhat due to other player's suggestions.....now it's up to everyone else to adapt a bit, I think.

Btw: Just wanted to note that I added some stuff via Post 314 as well, in case you missed that post.

Lots of WIFOM toDay. Also, does anyone else think GH's last post of yesterday is a bit LAMIST?
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_73_soleannas_supreme_guardians/post275


It looks like someone's going to have to explain probabilities to GH again. ZFR, would you like to do the honours?

I'm going to bed now. 'night all.

It does, doesn't it?

Hmm....maybe everyone should try to get that wagon on me going again....maybe this time it'll finally work. o.0

This should be what I was talking about

[i]Micro looks in. L4 before he's even shown up?
raises eyebrows[/i]
Seriously? What's with that speed? Especially for GOG, this is blistering speeds, meanwhile it looks like the person that all the regulars thought was scum on D1 has been...ignored? Really, now? Veeerry iiintereesting. For that matter, no one other than the 4 of you had shown up before you made it L5. Lovely.

Or, or OR... what really happened. I was busy, read through page 5, made a joke post about that (#258, quoting 235), finished reading through page 5 and had to run out of the door because the car was about to leave without me. And you want to lunch me instead of being late for a event (I was only "on time" by one minute anyway!) As I recall, I had said I had near-zero interest in voting for GH on D1 (204). Not as concrete as I remember, but still.

I was already seriously voting Catte, didn't feel like taking GH to lunch on D1, saw flub's indicator light was still "on", and figured he could have the honors of voting because I shouldn't have turned my computer on at all on what was Tuesday the 3rd, US time.

Oh well, if you lunch me you'll find I'm town. I wish I was a jester, they seem like an interesting role. Although trying to be lunched seems so much harder than actually being mis-lunched. Oh, and when you do ML me? Take a look at the folks who jumped on my wagon so early; I'm pretty sure one of them is probably scum.

(To myself: the streak continues! Nearly every time i draw town, i do something that looks anti-town and get a early D2 or D3 wagon forming on me... And I thought this game might be different.... >:-( )

++++

I do like Book's pressure on Joe in 306.

I know, rite? When I actually offer to be the lynch, it just doesn't happen. :|

Ah well, more time to play along with everyone and such.

I believe you should know as well as most that the indicator light isn't always the best indicator of someone being around(like if someone is logged on and afk, or the light is just busted again).

Join the club ;)

And I like how Book actually analyzed the wagons a bit.
(it's a nice change of pace from games where people said we should do such, and then didn't do much of such)

+++


Reagan smacks a nearby walls for a bit, then gets tired and takes a quick nap while mumbling "Reagan sleeeepy"

Yes, that happens when someone looks very scummy. And your not hammering but instead sitting on a wagon that was going nowhere was very off. But are you sure that flubb was still present?

@flubb: why didn't you return to hammer? You knew, just like Micro, that we were in danger of getting a no-lynch!

But why do you, repeatedly, offer to be the lynch? Do you want to be lynched? Is this game full of Jesters?
And about your question of Micro's chance to be scum again: that's not how statistics work. As the others tried to explain to you, Micro has exactly the same chance of being scum as anyone else. When you throw a (fair) die, that has just rolled a 6, the chance of rolling a 6 is still 1/6-th. The die isn't conscious, it doesn't know that it just rolled a 6 and it doesn't try to roll something different. The second roll is uncorrelated to the first.
And your implied argument: "but rolling two 6-es in a row is less likely!" is false. Rolling 6-6 has a 1/36-th chance. But rolling 6-5 has a 1-36-th chance too. Just as 6-4 or 6-3 or 6-2 or 6-1.

So, things that seem off:

Micro: not hammering
Flub: the same
ZFR: repeated NL-attempts, call for claim
GH: same things as yesterday, repeated LAMIST-y willingness to be lynched
dogmaus, Mango: absence. Are they overwhelmed with being scum and don't know what to write? Or did they lose interest in the game, after noticing that it does require quite some attention?

On the bolded bit: I dunno

On the rest: I wanted be more of a team player, and offer myself up so that another town player might be spared....also this way I wouldn't be around to distract as I often do in these games, so my fellow town could focus on finding scum.

Thanks for explaining.

Btw, does that similar probability of such extend further out(to say 3-4-5-6-etc games)?
(I sorta thought that the likelihood of someone getting the same side in a bunch of games would be less likely)

Yeah, something aboutr ZFR seems off(to me, I mean)....also dunno what to make of Micro atm. Am leery of them since they went under my radar last game, but also like them around as their posts can be fun to read.

Damned if I do, and damned if I don't, eh? ;)
(I mean how no matter what I do/don't do, someone usually suspects me :D)

Might need OP to call em back to the game, at any rate.
(carefully though, so as not to scare em off, if they truly are overwhelmed)

Btw, a question: will you be doing a more in depth wagon analysis?
(I know we didn't get a complete wagon, but we came very close and i'd love to see you do some more analysis and share your thoughts in greater detail)

Is it necessary to phrase so?

No. I apologise.

It's a pet peeve of mine, but the wording was uncalled for.



‐------------------


If we didnt likely have 3 acum, I'd have wondered if the missed kill was because dogmaus and Mango failed to submit.

Ok, this is starting to become annoying. You and a few others seem to often skip attempts I make to actually play the game(questions I ask, points I raise), just to subtly get a few jabs in.

Might I remind you of the following:

Rule 0: "Everyone should be playing the game for fun and treat each other with the necessary respect."

Rule 14: "14. Have fun, and stay classy"

Now please, can we play the game without such petty nonsense?

I'm here and catching up.

How long did your event run for Microfish?

Addition to Post 326: Just saw this(wasn't there when I refreshed before posting). Thank you for the apology.

That said, I would appreciate it if everyone stuck to addressing my points and if everyone could try to take my points/questions somewhat seriously, and not do such things.
(i.e. making jokes about single things I said while skipping everything else I said/asked in a post).

Oh my goodness, I'm not going to play this game at night. I've never been away. Chill out. I'll make any intervention I find useful to make,in reasonable hours. I'm not a vampire so I'd like to sleep and do other things.
As for Mango, they have disappeared after casting a non valid vote for me. Never answered to my questions.
While my non vote edited posts were downvoted and followed by a any sort of strong reaction, Mango's post with their vote for me, illegal and edited, was upvoted. By whom? Maybe scum.

I found catte's reaction or lack thereof to Mango's post suspicious, after their reaction at my edited post. I also found Bookwyrm attempt of making pass Mango's vote as valid strange. I'm just making this things noticed as it seems that no one has paid much attention to it.
I'm not voting in this post.

I was disappointed at the NL in the first day but I didn't want to lynch GymHenson just cause. Also I was expecting someone else to cast a 7th vote for GH but it didn't happen.

Question: if I may ask, how many in the town are scum at the beginning of a game? Is that random or given?