I want to hear what Pooka has to say, but at this point:

We have 2 people to lynch left.
I doubt anything will happen that will change my mind that those 2 are Lift and nmillar.
No other wagon will get the required majoroty today.
Doubt anything will happen that will change the situation toMorrow. The only 2 wagons that can get majoroty are nmillar and Lift.
So let's vote both. I would like Lift first, but willing to vote nmillar if dedo and Pooka insist.

Regardless, at this stage if imp is among Lift/nmillar, we won. If not we lost. No need to prolong it.

You sure seem to have dropped your "NL benefits town" stance quick....I wonder why.

Regardless, I am gonna sit this one out chiefy.....so have fun trying to get everyone else on board the wagon.

@Pooka, you said you were going to look for interactions and such. Any progress on that?

Okay, I don't tend to be online much at the weekend, so if it's between myself and Lift, then it's obvious where my vote has to go.

Vote Lift

Hmm, you voted Lift, and when it was your wagon Lift voted for you....and all of this started after ZFR started pushing the "we should lynch someone today" thing. Also ZFR originally floated the whole "we should do one NL" thing, but is now seemingly in a rush to push a lynch through(such as the end line of post 661)...even though they themselves said on D1 and etc that we can and likely should do one NL to help town.

What....what if ZFR is scum and is trying to push lynches through so they can whittle our numbers down and thus have a chance at winning?

(I know, I know....this goes against my prior thoughts on ZFR somewhat.....but what if it's correct? Of course, take this fwiw and with a grain of salt, as I could be wrong and just chasing shadows again)

Do you think I got something wrong, then?

Explain to me what you think I got wrong, then, if you'd be so kind.

We have 6 people. Voting majority is 4. You're voting NL, I'm only voting nmillar, Lift. dedo is only voting nmillar, Lift or NL. The remaining 3, even if they make a unanimous vote, can't get the majority by themselves.

Unless Pooka narrows it down even further, nmillar, Lift and NL are the only possible votes today. There is nothing to "push" for here, these are literally the only possible votes, unless someone changes his mind (I know I won't). You can't vote for someone else and hope that magically 3 becomes more than 50% of 6.
For nmillar and Lift, since they're not voting themselves, the choice is restricted even further: vote for the other one or vote nothing.

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We have at most two people to vote for. Nothing will change that. The only possible combinations are
Vote, Vote
Vote, NL, Vote
NL, Vote, Vote

For me, those two votes are Lift and nmillar. Mafia won't oblige me by killing one of them, so there is no reason at all for NL.

By themselves....but with the help of yourself and dedo it is (afaik) possible to push a Lift or Nmillar lynch through(obviously the person being voted for wouldn't be likely to vote themselves, so it wouldn't be 100% unanimous).

Yet you SEEM to be pushing for a vote of Lift or Nmillar over a NL.....despite earlier "pushing for" one NL this game to help town.....which you now also seem to be hesitant to go through with for some reason.

Also: what I don't get is, how my idea of narrowing down the player pool by 1 town(via NL on D4) so we can have an easier time on D5 is seemingly a bad one....or at least not as good as your idea(afaik it is to lynch D4 and then maybe NL later).

There are, imo......narrowing the player pool to make it more likely to hit scum on D5, your own math from the start of the game, etc.

Unbelievable...

So no countering what I said? Just a single word?

Can you guess who i'm thinking of adding to my suspects list for D5(if I don't catch the NK, that is)?

Addition to prior post: There is a chance you're still town, so I will say this: I feel that sometimes it's worth trusting one's gut vs the stats/numbers all the time, and my gut says....in this case(along with the "logic" i've put together) that NL is the way to go today(D4).

We can disagree on this, and if i'm wrong people may feel free to kick by behind once again....but i'd rather go NL and possibly be proven wrong for doing so later on, than to find out later I should've stuck to my guns and a NL.

Listen, m...

Let me try and explain for the third time.

Regarding possible votes:

We have 6 players. 4 is the required majority. You're voting NL, I'm voting Lift/nmillar only, dedo is voting Lift/nmillar/NL only. Therefore, the only possible votes today are: nmillar, Lift, NL. Nothing else will get majority. Your gut can talk to you till kingdom come, but unless you, dedo or myself change our minds, These. Are. The. Only. Possible. Lynches.

If nmillar wants to vote someone, he has to vote Lift. Any other vote he makes is the equivalent of voting NL.
If Lift wants to vote someone, he has to vote nmillar. Any other vote he makes is the equivalent of voting NL.

Anyone typing "vote dedo/ZFR/GH/Pooka" is effectively typing "vote NL".

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Regarding me voting NL:

Before NL. Pool of possible lynches: {nmillar, Lift}. Count = 2.
After NL. Pool of possible lynches: {nmillar, Lift}. Count = 2.

2 = 2.
Therefore 2 is not smaller than 2.
Therefore NL didn't make my pool of possible lynches smaller.
Therefore I'm not voting NL.

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I honestly don't know how to make this any simpler. Maybe your gut can. I'm not explainging this a fourth time.

That's assuming both survive to D5, and neither is the NK.

Also even if they do both survive, the total player pool WILL still be reduced, likely giving us better odds to hit scum.

Btw, let's say a vote goes through and it turns out y'all picked a town...then we're down 2 town instead of one. You ok with that if that happens?

In my scenario, the Mafioso doesn't have a hobby of hitting himself on the head with a baseball bat.



No. If my pool of possible lynches remains same, it doesn't matter if there are 2, 3 or million other Town players. Odds remain same: if nmillar/Lift is scum I hit scum, if not, I don't hit scum.