That is the reason why I whas for if NL is done on D1 everyone just do it without arguing to give as less information as possible.
Interesstingly this outcry gives really good information.

- it has something to do with numbers
- it comes from ZFR
--> so it must be statistics! ;-)

Sorry, I used that as generic term for 'number considerations that I'm not going into detail about'.

As you say yourself, going by the numbers it's of no consequence when we do the NL. And I think we agree that it would be bad to do it D1. The worst Day to do a no-lynch, actually. I want to have something to work with on D2.

So: no no-lynch today!

We're playing Mafia. We're having our lynches. The number of lynches doesn't change. Only instead of having lynches D1 to D4 we'll have them D2 to D5. This is nothing about "statistics".

Now that you're here, could you please answer me why you accused me of promoting D1 NL on your post #48, when I had done no such thing?

bump

Thanks for the bump, Lift.

No we don't. In fact it's better the earlier we do it. Can you explain why NL is worse on D1? And don't tell me because on D2 we'll be in the same spot, because that's not an issue.

It's like a race in a car that we have to finish from 12 to 1pm.

Or we can spend 15 minutes before the start of our race improving our car a little, and if we do that, the race deadline extends to 1:15 pm.

So the argument "if we NL on D1 we'll be in the same spot on D2" is like saying that if we improve our car right at the start then by 12:15 we'll be in the same starting spot, which is bad". Yes, it's true, but we'll still have the same 1 hour to finish the race, only in a faster car.


Now, I understand some some players don't like just standing around and have to start the "fun" part of driving immediately, so for this reason I won't insist on it. But if at 12:45 we still haven't improved our car, I'll definitely isist of doing it then.

Sorry, meant to add another link. I was wrong in my initial assumption, going by numbers only it's slightly better to do it ASAP. Post 68
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_71/post68

Again, since the EV increase is only very small .46666 vs .44444 in 7vs1, I won't insist on doing it straight away.

Yes, it is an issue. D1 sucks. Making D2 into another D1 sucks too. So going your way makes the game suck. Therefore it is bad - because it is no fun.

I don't want to play by the numbers. I want to try to lynch the one who seems most suspicious to me. Not just randomly lynch anyone while trying to optimize our chances mathematically. You don't need players for that! You can just let a computer run the game and be done with it.
(You know, removing the element of human error would really optimize your 'race car'. Just have a sufficiently advanced AI drive the car! Or rationalize the car away too and let the computer run a simulation. That's much more efficient saves you all that hassle -and fun- of driving! Does that sound like a good plan?)

This is a game about social interaction and trying to read other people. At least it is supposed to be. So I don't care a bit whether your numbers tell you that it is slightly more advantageous to do a NL on D1. ... From the game, interaction and fun point of view a no-lynch on Day 1 is bad.

It’s simple, you clearly stated doing a no lynch when there is an even number of players increases Towns chances of winning. Last I checked there’s 12 people playing.



Also, if this is going to turn into a game of deciding when it’s an optimal time to lynch or not based solely on statistics then please lynch me first as that’s not the game of mafia or fun.

I didn't say we should do it on D1 though. In fact I mistakenly thought it doesn't matter. The D1 only came on post #68.



I never said we should make it "based soley on statistics". The game will still have exactly the same amount of social interaction in it.

Only instead of having it on Days 1 through 4, we're going to have it on Days 2 through 5 instead.

Same amount of discussion, same amount of wagons analysis. Same amount of everything.

But again, I'm not going to insist.

I think you're misunderstanding me (maybe I shouldn't have started with probabilities calculations).

So, just so we're clear I have absolutely no intention of turning this into a game were we lynch blindly by the numbers. This will be the same Mafia game of human error and social interaction, only it will start one Day later and last one Day longer.

I know the two of you mentioned a busy weekend, and I get the feeling you just skimmed through my posts and got the impression I intend to turn this into a lynch blindly by probabilities game.

There is one point you're not taking in consideration tho. Having 12 players, D1 is usually a looong Day. A D2 with no information becoming another long Day is worse than having a D4 with the same information from D3, because supposedly that D4 won't drag as much. (Assuming Catte shortens the Days as less players remain.)

Argh, jus one thing more and I'm done.

I agree, and this is exactly why I'm NOT proposing to do it. AI/simulation will take the fun part away of the race.

The fun part of driving will last exactly same time: one hour.



Agreed. It will drag on longer. To be honest, ideally the fist kill in such a case is done on N0 to prevent this taking forever in RT time. Sucks for the guy who gets NKed though, as dedo said..

Votecount the Third

No Lunch 1 - korotan (#37)
ZFR 1 - trentonlf (#48)
Korotan 1 - Lifthrasil (#116)

Not voting 9 - Engerek01, bucktoothgamer, ZFR, JaiSpohpere, GymHenson, dedoporno, joppo, pookina, Nmillar

Deadline: 19:00 UTC 28/11/2020

But why would you or anyone want to start the interesting part of the game a Day (i.e. a real-time week or so) later than usual? Are you so addicted to the D1 boredom and frustration that you want to extend it? Your 'start one Day later and last one Day longer' will only achieve an extension of the worst part of the game. No, thanks.