Posted May 16, 2020
CONTENTS
* FACTS (and discussion): Charts, simulation, replies.
* OPINION
-Three tiny lights (personal suspects so far).
- Would not vote.
- Comments on people others mentiones.
===================
# FACTS and discussion: #
Since the deadline is coming soon, I was thinking of getting ready a chart. I just found @GR suggested that, too. Yes. I just need whom people would vote and whom would not vote. I will give ..75 to suspects and .25 to people who would not be voted, and 0.80 to votes in place. Of course, if you want to add some nuance, so that the suspects appear in order of preference for you, that can only be good.
This way we can see more clearly which virtual bandwagons are larger. As you know, this might help with making a deal about whom to invite to lunch. The sooner, the better, so that the guest can make any allegations that might be opportune (still remember Micro's fierce and successful defenxe on the Harry Potter game; that would not have happened without time for the discussion). Mind, I will TRY to have something, but it will depend on the time available.
@Cristine: Hi there! You know, a simulation model is a program that simulates possible results of a phenomenom. In this case, a mafia game, by simulating round after round. You let it run a high number of simulations and see what happens. It works best when all the powers are included in the simulation, but even with a partial inclusion of the powers, it helps having a general idea of what the game looks like at any given moment. It can be used both with random voting or taking into account the average estimation of scumminess for each player (that one we got from the charts mentioned above). The one I was using was made in the later stages of the Harry Potter model. It was very exciting since the game was swingy for some reasons revealed later (avoiding spoilers, it was a great game, full with surprises and drama that left many of us with our mouths agape repeatedly) and the events on almost each night after the first one led to large chances in the odds.
In the very late stages of the game all roles were known and by then it was possible to calculate the chances directly, but before that, a simulation was easier than doing all the calculations.
@Micro, thanks for the further explanation about the three new players (new for me) in this game. I still did not prepare a simulation for this game. Anyway, it will be more informative after the first night. Right now, what can help more is having a chart so that we have two or three solid candidates to negotiate about. Those are fun to make and if the information is put clearly, it will take a bit less.
Also, on ZFR's game @Yogsloth was outspoken since the very beginning. SPF started relatively quiet, but joined in the fun on the second game-day (even if Yogsloth remained the most vocal of the whole team). Joppo was the submarine.
===================
# OPINION #
## So my three little lights were ##
Cadaver Slim: His tiny light flickered and went off. His effort collecting all that info about the voting in the present game seems townie enough, although of course I have no idea of how far might he go as scum. But it seems simpler to take him as townie for the time being, even if the lengthy exchanges were a bit worrying, it might be attributed to fatigue and it seems to be water past the bridge as of now.
Pookie the cookie: she seemed to be a mob jokerine, then she got peaceful. However, not sure if that peacefullness was due to getting too much heat, too early. The tiny light stays on for now, but still tiny.
Lazy Walkins: writes sparingly, differently than in last game. He claims to have been abducted and chained to a table leg in the restaurant. Still, when he writes he does so to vote, while confessing he has zero basis for said vote, which souns too lame an excuse when the voted one flips town. I like involvement with the game and reasoning that might be cross-examinated later. So, the tiny light went a shade further to the orange.
## Would NOT vote: ##
The ones mencioned by @ZFR: Lonzi and Cristine. So that they have a fair chance. Also, nothing particularly worrying about them by now, especially considering that it is Lonzi's first. Also, hpefully they get free trom that migraine.
## About two chaps what were mentioned by others: ##
SPF: he has been mentioned as slightly different. I guess that he is in a less playful mode than in other times, but also he was more relaxed at the beginning in the other games I saw him in, if that is what you were mentioning (I think it was ZFR), but of course, you have seen much more of him than I have.
Micro: He seems his own self. Which involves appearing as scummy, for this reason or that, even if he is a townie. Sort of what happens to GR, but in a different way. So, as seen from here, business as usual, par for the course.
So, that's it. Not much ot offer at this stage that these views. Especially with the people new to me, since we are still beginning to know each other. Nothing overly suspicious from them, anywa (to my eye, at least).
* FACTS (and discussion): Charts, simulation, replies.
* OPINION
-Three tiny lights (personal suspects so far).
- Would not vote.
- Comments on people others mentiones.
===================
# FACTS and discussion: #
Since the deadline is coming soon, I was thinking of getting ready a chart. I just found @GR suggested that, too. Yes. I just need whom people would vote and whom would not vote. I will give ..75 to suspects and .25 to people who would not be voted, and 0.80 to votes in place. Of course, if you want to add some nuance, so that the suspects appear in order of preference for you, that can only be good.
This way we can see more clearly which virtual bandwagons are larger. As you know, this might help with making a deal about whom to invite to lunch. The sooner, the better, so that the guest can make any allegations that might be opportune (still remember Micro's fierce and successful defenxe on the Harry Potter game; that would not have happened without time for the discussion). Mind, I will TRY to have something, but it will depend on the time available.
@Cristine: Hi there! You know, a simulation model is a program that simulates possible results of a phenomenom. In this case, a mafia game, by simulating round after round. You let it run a high number of simulations and see what happens. It works best when all the powers are included in the simulation, but even with a partial inclusion of the powers, it helps having a general idea of what the game looks like at any given moment. It can be used both with random voting or taking into account the average estimation of scumminess for each player (that one we got from the charts mentioned above). The one I was using was made in the later stages of the Harry Potter model. It was very exciting since the game was swingy for some reasons revealed later (avoiding spoilers, it was a great game, full with surprises and drama that left many of us with our mouths agape repeatedly) and the events on almost each night after the first one led to large chances in the odds.
In the very late stages of the game all roles were known and by then it was possible to calculate the chances directly, but before that, a simulation was easier than doing all the calculations.
@Micro, thanks for the further explanation about the three new players (new for me) in this game. I still did not prepare a simulation for this game. Anyway, it will be more informative after the first night. Right now, what can help more is having a chart so that we have two or three solid candidates to negotiate about. Those are fun to make and if the information is put clearly, it will take a bit less.
Also, on ZFR's game @Yogsloth was outspoken since the very beginning. SPF started relatively quiet, but joined in the fun on the second game-day (even if Yogsloth remained the most vocal of the whole team). Joppo was the submarine.
===================
# OPINION #
## So my three little lights were ##
Cadaver Slim: His tiny light flickered and went off. His effort collecting all that info about the voting in the present game seems townie enough, although of course I have no idea of how far might he go as scum. But it seems simpler to take him as townie for the time being, even if the lengthy exchanges were a bit worrying, it might be attributed to fatigue and it seems to be water past the bridge as of now.
Pookie the cookie: she seemed to be a mob jokerine, then she got peaceful. However, not sure if that peacefullness was due to getting too much heat, too early. The tiny light stays on for now, but still tiny.
Lazy Walkins: writes sparingly, differently than in last game. He claims to have been abducted and chained to a table leg in the restaurant. Still, when he writes he does so to vote, while confessing he has zero basis for said vote, which souns too lame an excuse when the voted one flips town. I like involvement with the game and reasoning that might be cross-examinated later. So, the tiny light went a shade further to the orange.
## Would NOT vote: ##
The ones mencioned by @ZFR: Lonzi and Cristine. So that they have a fair chance. Also, nothing particularly worrying about them by now, especially considering that it is Lonzi's first. Also, hpefully they get free trom that migraine.
## About two chaps what were mentioned by others: ##
SPF: he has been mentioned as slightly different. I guess that he is in a less playful mode than in other times, but also he was more relaxed at the beginning in the other games I saw him in, if that is what you were mentioning (I think it was ZFR), but of course, you have seen much more of him than I have.
Micro: He seems his own self. Which involves appearing as scummy, for this reason or that, even if he is a townie. Sort of what happens to GR, but in a different way. So, as seen from here, business as usual, par for the course.
So, that's it. Not much ot offer at this stage that these views. Especially with the people new to me, since we are still beginning to know each other. Nothing overly suspicious from them, anywa (to my eye, at least).
