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General discussionGOG Mafia #66 - Lunch at Gog's Restaurant(1268 posts)(1268 posts)
(1268 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted May 27, 2020
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LASER97: I want Pooka to have to make a decision when she comes back, and Scene is too unpredictable for me.
Ok, from your perspective both Carradice and GR are scum. How did you pick Carradice to vote for?
Posted May 27, 2020
Both you and Cristi suspected Carradice. I obviously have no problem lynching either of them.
Posted May 27, 2020
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LASER97: Both you and Cristi suspected Carradice. I obviously have no problem lynching either of them.
Ok. I'm just wary that (obviously) if you are scum then only one of them is scum. If you are scum then you'd have a strong preference for lynching one of them...
Posted May 27, 2020
Nope. I will switch my vote to Gamerager if it makes you comfortable.
Posted May 27, 2020
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LASER97: Nope. I will switch my vote to Gamerager if it makes you comfortable.
My gut says that Carradice is scum independent of the question of your alignment.
I'd like to see Joppo's reaction to all of this. He's going to be caught between trying to get us to mislynch (and win) or cut his losses and bus someone to try and win down the road. Actually, it's all going to be WIFOM from him so it's probably not worth it.

I'd certainly like to hear from Pooka though.
Posted May 27, 2020
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GameRager: As for me....cristi's N1 result is likely to be accurate, but the N2 result a bit less likely to be accurate.
If you were town, you would already know whether it's accurate or not.
Posted May 27, 2020
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LASER97: If you were town, you would already know whether it's accurate or not.
I'm not so good at some aspects of the game(like this one) no matter what side i'm on in these games...you should know that by now.
Posted May 27, 2020
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LASER97: How about you? Between Carradice, Gamerager, and Scene, which two are most likely scum.
Well, my scum team picks before was composed of: Laser & Scene as definitive, one among SPF-Cristigale-Carradice (as roughly 30% possible each and 10% for GR)

Now that Cristigale gave their results I have to reassess. She is town, obviously, and Scene must be too. On the other hand SPF is surefire scum.
Makes it then that there must be two among these three: Carradice, Laser, GR. With Laser being a bit less likely, but not exactly cleared. For what it's worth I was supposing that the cop was going to be Cristigale based on how she was defending Laser when everyone was sure he was scum, after a D1 where Laser invited so much attention that a investigation was extremely probable. (Although I later realized that if I was right about her I would throw my views on Lazak out the window. But those evaluations were written a bit before I finished reading D2)

I guess I missed a bit here regarding who she would target during N1, but I still would have hit her. If I got that possibility right without even being on the lookout for a cop I have to imagine the scum could have too and use their redirect accordingly.

Right now it's a coin toss between Lazak and GR. I think we'll need to see what comes up right now.
Posted May 27, 2020
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GameRager: As for me....cristi's N1 result is likely to be accurate, but the N2 result a bit less likely to be accurate.
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LASER97: If you were town, you would already know whether it's accurate or not.
That's a good catch. If GR is town then he'd absolutely know you're scum. Having said that, if he's scum he should still know that it's mutually exclusive so he should be calling you scum regardless. In other words, the only thing we can be sure of is that GR hasn't really thought this through.
Posted May 27, 2020
FUN

I never thought I'd see a counterclaim in an OPEN SETUP game, but here we are. Of course, the only reason a counter-claim is possible at this point in time is that scum wants us to coinflip. Lonzi and SPF were both strong townreads of mine, so it makes sense that this pair would counterclaim.

Let's get the verified roles on the road:

1. scene: very likely town
2. cristi: cop
3. SPF: either scum, or town doctor
4. Joppo: either scum, or town doctor
5. laser: maybe town
6. Carradice: no idea
7: GR: no idea

Oh, I think I am forgetting a player. Oh yes.

8. Pooka: hot vigilante

Here's the fun part. There is one scum between Joppo and SPF, so that's a third of the game solved. The last two thirds likely lie here:
- GR
- Carradice
- Laser

If Laser isn't scum, GR and Carradice are sure scums. If Laser is scum, it's another coinflip between GR and Carradice. Maybe let's write down the SCUMLISTS depending on scenario.

Scenario 1: Cristi's Bad Luck:
- SPF or Joppo
- Laser
- Scene
- GR
- Carradice

Scenario 2: Cristi's Bad Day 1:
- SPF or Joppo
- scene
- GR
- Carradice

Scenario 3: Cristi's Bad Day 2:
- SPF or Joppo
- Laser
- GR
- Carradice

Scenario 4: Cristi Super Luck Get!:
- SPF or Joppo
- GR
- Carradice

In all scenarios, GR and Carradice appear as possible scums. In some scenarios, scene isn't scum but is scum in others. Laser is scum in a bunch but not so in others just as well. Does that mean we're better off lynching GR or Carradice, if we are unable to tell who is the scum among SPF and Joppo?

I'm finding the theory that Joppo is scum because he is the replacement to Lonzi who had IRL happen to her a little too convenient, maybe even bad sportsmanship. But I'm not so sure about SPF being scum either...
Posted May 27, 2020
I haven't done the exact math, but if we're going by pure statistics, the odds of Carradice and Gamerager being scum are higher than the odds of Cristi having been redirected on N2.
Posted May 27, 2020
On today's chat I'm leaning to voting for Joppo based on the chat of SPF/Joppo. SPF seems like he is finally working to work the game out. Joppo looks like he's A) Gaslighting Cristi with regards to her town reads B) Shading myself and perhaps Laser C) Finding a definite Scum (and maybe 2) in either Carradice and Rager to be strong Town reads.

Meanwhile SPF is concerned that Laser maybe Scum and that he might be picking the scum pick in Carradice and Rager

Which I realise I'm picking in a 50-50 over a 66-33 pick but Joppo seems like the most scummy player right now. Thoughts?
Posted May 27, 2020
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Pookina: FUN

I never thought I'd see a counterclaim in an OPEN SETUP game, but here we are. Of course, the only reason a counter-claim is possible at this point in time is that scum wants us to coinflip. Lonzi and SPF were both strong townreads of mine, so it makes sense that this pair would counterclaim.

Let's get the verified roles on the road:

1. scene: very likely town
2. cristi: cop
3. SPF: either scum, or town doctor
4. Joppo: either scum, or town doctor
5. laser: maybe town
6. Carradice: no idea
7: GR: no idea

Oh, I think I am forgetting a player. Oh yes.

8. Pooka: hot vigilante

Here's the fun part. There is one scum between Joppo and SPF, so that's a third of the game solved. The last two thirds likely lie here:
- GR
- Carradice
- Laser

If Laser isn't scum, GR and Carradice are sure scums. If Laser is scum, it's another coinflip between GR and Carradice. Maybe let's write down the SCUMLISTS depending on scenario.

Scenario 1: Cristi's Bad Luck:
- SPF or Joppo
- Laser
- Scene
- GR
- Carradice

____

I'm finding the theory that Joppo is scum because he is the replacement to Lonzi who had IRL happen to her a little too convenient, maybe even bad sportsmanship. But I'm not so sure about SPF being scum either...
Maybe I'm missing something, but how is Scenario 1 possible? It seems to require both of Cristi's reads to be wrong and I don't see how that could be possible.
____

I think you've misunderstood the theory I proposed. I wasn't saying Lonzi dropped out because she was scum, I was saying that the fact the end of night was delayed might have been to allow her replacement a chance to night chat with the other scum. It's just something that occurred to me while we were waiting.

Having said that, as I said before my theory about the long night is not something I would have used to read Joppo and by itself it's nothing. Now I know Joppo is scum I just put it out there because I think my instincts was right. Think of it as a bragging rights thing rather than an attempt to try and convince anyone of anything.
Posted May 27, 2020
Joppo's claim seems less authentic, but I'm also 100% certain that Carradice and Gamerager are scum.
Posted May 27, 2020
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Pookina: FUN

I never thought I'd see a counterclaim in an OPEN SETUP game, but here we are. Of course, the only reason a counter-claim is possible at this point in time is that scum wants us to coinflip. Lonzi and SPF were both strong townreads of mine, so it makes sense that this pair would counterclaim.

Let's get the verified roles on the road:

1. scene: very likely town
2. cristi: cop
3. SPF: either scum, or town doctor
4. Joppo: either scum, or town doctor
5. laser: maybe town
6. Carradice: no idea
7: GR: no idea

Oh, I think I am forgetting a player. Oh yes.

8. Pooka: hot vigilante

Here's the fun part. There is one scum between Joppo and SPF, so that's a third of the game solved. The last two thirds likely lie here:
- GR
- Carradice
- Laser

If Laser isn't scum, GR and Carradice are sure scums. If Laser is scum, it's another coinflip between GR and Carradice. Maybe let's write down the SCUMLISTS depending on scenario.

Scenario 1: Cristi's Bad Luck:
- SPF or Joppo
- Laser
- Scene
- GR
- Carradice

Scenario 2: Cristi's Bad Day 1:
- SPF or Joppo
- scene
- GR
- Carradice

Scenario 3: Cristi's Bad Day 2:
- SPF or Joppo
- Laser
- GR
- Carradice

Scenario 4: Cristi Super Luck Get!:
- SPF or Joppo
- GR
- Carradice

In all scenarios, GR and Carradice appear as possible scums. In some scenarios, scene isn't scum but is scum in others. Laser is scum in a bunch but not so in others just as well. Does that mean we're better off lynching GR or Carradice, if we are unable to tell who is the scum among SPF and Joppo?

I'm finding the theory that Joppo is scum because he is the replacement to Lonzi who had IRL happen to her a little too convenient, maybe even bad sportsmanship. But I'm not so sure about SPF being scum either...
I follow all the scenarios except the first one.

The redirect is one shot. Either scene or laser is guaranteed to be town. Am I reading that wrong?
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #66 - Lunch at Gog's Restaurant(1268 posts)(1268 posts)
(1268 posts)