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General discussionGOG Mafia #66 - Lunch at Gog's Restaurant(1268 posts)(1268 posts)
(1268 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted May 27, 2020
EBWOP:

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SirPrimalform: Yesterday was D2, Cristi would only have the N1 result at that point. Whatever her second result is, she only found it out at the start of D3 so you can't interpret her actions yesterday in terms of a result she only just got.
___

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cristigale: Lol, that's the thing. I was totally beating myself up N2 because I failed to breadcrumb, apart from my continued strong read on scene. I never intended to do an obvious breadcrumb that anyone might be able to pick up.

So yes, I thought the scum choosing to use their one-shot night one and somehow picking me extremely low.
It's probably for the best, it's lead to you living until this point.

We've got an interesting situation now. If we lynch someone other than me or Joppo through PoE then the scum will have to leave me alive to preserve the standoff. If the person we lynch ends up being the strong arm then I'll be able to protect you properly and the delayed block will still allow you to get a result tonight. Of course if the scum have held onto their redirector shot they now know exactly who to use it on.
Posted May 27, 2020
I'd actually like to make sure we ALL understand the possibilities of the redirect before I give my N2 results.

Come N2 I am aware that if I survive the night, there is a chance I would be redirected. So my results N2 are not as certain. Scum may have redirected the doctor or a vanilla and my read is 100% accurate.

If scum did redirect me, they already know the alignment of my results, but they do not know who I selected. They could have redirected me to someone of the same alignment or different alignment. My thought is that scum are most likely to redirect to town. It would be risky for scum to redirect me to scum not knowing who I might cop.

Thoughts? Questions on how redirect works?
Posted May 27, 2020
Get on with it already...
Posted May 27, 2020
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supplementscene: Bump for Cristi. This is like when Poirot gathers all the suspects together
I love this (and the tease comment).
Posted May 27, 2020
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cristigale: I'd actually like to make sure we ALL understand the possibilities of the redirect before I give my N2 results.
Are we talking 50/50 redirection here if Laser is town? And 33% chance you were redirected if he's scum?
Posted May 27, 2020
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cristigale: I'd actually like to make sure we ALL understand the possibilities of the redirect before I give my N2 results.
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supplementscene: Are we talking 50/50 redirection here if Laser is town? And 33% chance you were redirected if he's scum?
Yes, exactly!
Posted May 27, 2020
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cristigale: I'd actually like to make sure we ALL understand the possibilities of the redirect before I give my N2 results.

Come N2 I am aware that if I survive the night, there is a chance I would be redirected. So my results N2 are not as certain. Scum may have redirected the doctor or a vanilla and my read is 100% accurate.

If scum did redirect me, they already know the alignment of my results, but they do not know who I selected. They could have redirected me to someone of the same alignment or different alignment. My thought is that scum are most likely to redirect to town. It would be risky for scum to redirect me to scum not knowing who I might cop.

Thoughts? Questions on how redirect works?
I agree that the scum would most likely redirect you to a town player. The worst outcome for them in that case would be that you read one town player as another town player while their ideal result would be you reading a scum player as town. If they redirected you to a scum player then there's the risk that you were already targeting a scum player.

I think a scum result can be better trusted but I still think it's reasonable to assume the scum probably didn't know you were the cop.
Posted May 27, 2020
I gotta get some lunch before this next meeting. Not going to make you wait.

I copped Laser N2. I chose Laser because he is the biggest point of contention D2. Laser reported as TOWN. It’s not a slam dunk. It’s possible that Laser is scum and I was redirected to from scum to town. I have maintained Laser is town the past two day and still think he is but I am certainly doing my due diligence today.
Posted May 27, 2020
I'm glad that's settled

Vote: Carradice
Posted May 27, 2020
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cristigale: I gotta get some lunch before this next meeting. Not going to make you wait.

I copped Laser N2. I chose Laser because he is the biggest point of contention D2. Laser reported as TOWN. It’s not a slam dunk. It’s possible that Laser is scum and I was redirected to from scum to town. I have maintained Laser is town the past two day and still think he is but I am certainly doing my due diligence today.
Ok. I think there's a reasonable chance that's accurate... which would make Carradice and GR scum.

Can I have your thoughts on my recent exchange with Carradice? After I said I suspected he was scum I thought he kind of overreacted. Does it look like rattled scum to you?
Posted May 27, 2020
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cristigale: I gotta get some lunch before this next meeting. Not going to make you wait.

I copped Laser N2. I chose Laser because he is the biggest point of contention D2. Laser reported as TOWN. It’s not a slam dunk. It’s possible that Laser is scum and I was redirected to from scum to town. I have maintained Laser is town the past two day and still think he is but I am certainly doing my due diligence today.
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SirPrimalform: Ok. I think there's a reasonable chance that's accurate... which would make Carradice and GR scum.

Can I have your thoughts on my recent exchange with Carradice? After I said I suspected he was scum I thought he kind of overreacted. Does it look like rattled scum to you?
Yes, if Laser is town, Carradice and GameRager are scum.

Getting lunch, will have to wait on the rest until after my meeting....about 90 minutes if it ends on time.
Posted May 27, 2020
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supplementscene: Are we talking 50/50 redirection here if Laser is town? And 33% chance you were redirected if he's scum?
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SirPrimalform: Ok. I think there's a reasonable chance that's accurate... which would make Carradice and GR scum.
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cristigale: Yes, if Laser is town, Carradice and GameRager are scum.
Let's vote before scum get a chance to react
Posted May 27, 2020
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LASER97: Let's vote before scum get a chance to react
That's one thing I don't get...if everyone is so certain who is scum and who isn't, why aren't many players voting?

As for me....cristi's N1 result is likely to be accurate, but the N2 result a bit less likely to be accurate.

Hmm, I could vote you, or one of Joppo or SPF.....

Decisions, decisions.......
Posted May 27, 2020
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LASER97: I'm glad that's settled

Vote: Carradice
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LASER97: Let's vote before scum get a chance to react
Why the hastiness? What can they do but dig themselves a hole?

The fact you want to rush into a lynch makes me think you're excited about a plan to get town read by drawing the cop and redirecting them has worked.
Posted May 27, 2020
I want Pooka to have to make a decision when she comes back, and Scene is too unpredictable for me.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #66 - Lunch at Gog's Restaurant(1268 posts)(1268 posts)
(1268 posts)