true enough, mathematically speaking. However, the likelihood is low, I think. i stand by my statement that would seem out of character for scum!ZFR--from what I've seen of him--to be still bussing scum!Pooka. I doubt they are both scum, and I doubt they are both town; them both being town is slightly more likely than that they are both scum.

Yes, I'd say that I agreed with that statement.

Hmm.

I think a potential downfall would be in a fake scumcop knowing who to attack (like Joe in a recent game). interested in other people's thoughts on this.

You're not the one I'm calling into question on this.

I know it was directed at Pooka. I didn't like what I'm seeing behind it.

Then, for your reading pleasure, I present:
========================================
Huh. ZFR quoted the exact line that had the problem (he quoting was even more pared down than mine). The same post also indicated that ZFR thought Lift might have deserved a vote for it.

This bugs me a lot.

Post 226: Pooka notes he's at L-2, and at 228 he notes how 2 scum (if they are off wagon) could finish him.
Post 240: ZFR wants to vote Pooka.
Post 255: Lift indicates a willingness to vote Pooka. (I think?)
Post 263: Micro has Pooka on a scum list.

Trent is already voting Pooka. Heck, the only person that seems to think Pooka might be town is Red!

Add in the line about narrowing list of possible scum, and this looks really bad to me.

I'm sure the problems with these statements have been beaten to death already.

PPE: Wow. The problems I expected to be raised haven't been raised nearly as much as I expected.
-The opportunity for WIFOM should be obvious.
-You know a Godfather could be present, you've even flagged it as one you're likely to choose, but you're trusting Lift without hesitation?

Hm.
========================================

*If* Pooka is scum, then your latest posts feel like putting the groundwork for being off a wagon that is very likely to happen anyway and on which you'll look bad if you end up on it. Same for micro.

Why you ahead of micro? No particular reason. Gut feeling mostly, though looking at his latest posts maybe I should have micro ahead of you.
Why? Why not town vs town?

I expressed my doubts about flub, even more so than my doubts about Pooka, and he ended up town. Does that make me town or scum for that? Not in the slightest. Well all I can tell you is that I’m torn on Pooka’s alignment after his claim and his answers to my questions. If he is lynched and does end up being scum voting me for having doubts and expressing them is a poor excuse for a vote.

I've been mentally going over the question "If Pooka is town, then where's the scum?"

I haven't had much problem with Trent most of the game. I think I'm going to take one of those leaps that serve me so poorly and just call him town for now.

I keep going back and forth some on ZFR, but overall I think I'm leaning town this slot too. There was that early D1 that I wasn't sure about, but I've gotten more comfortable with this slot as I've seen more of his arguments.

I've actually rather liked how Lift handled the Pooka-Reveal, which is something of a reverse of how I've been feeling about him in general. He's still one of my primary picks for scum.

Pooka is a top pick for scum, but I'm shelving his lynch for now.

I have NOT cared for how Micro has handled the Pooka-Reveal. Most of his other play has felt rather erratic. He's my favorite for scum, with or without a scum!Pooka.

Vote Microfish

Oh yeah, there's also RedFire, who I somehow keep not registering. He's more or less been around and his posting has felt okay, but continuing to forget him is worrying. He's in the pile with Lift, I think.

So it's more a "Gut feeling" thing like Wyrm has. Who's your second scum choice?

Eh, it takes me awhile to get my thoughts together for a post. And Pooka's cop claim threw me off because, as you said earlier, I'm probably the least convinced he's scum.

I just realized that as long as we lynch a scum, we get the same number of tries (3). I think it's better to use those tries on other suspected scum, not the claimed cop. I didn't process this earlier, because most arguments have been in terms of absolute trust vs. lynch now, but if Pooka is town, we have a greatly reduced chance of getting to D4.
Unvote Pooka
I'll go with my current strongest suspect
Vote Micro

AND I just realized that whether Pooka is town or scum does not change my suspicion list. That being the case, and since I still lean toward him being town, I don't have a reason to vote for him.

These two posts of yours are 7 hours apart.

You sure do seem to be jumping around on your vote and contradiciting yourself. Are you just looking for the easy wagong to jump on?

Vote RedFireGaming

Well, I'm grateful for the responses to my questions.
@Book: I get that you don't much care for it, okay. Fair enough.
You think my playstyle is a tad erratic, and this may be true. I tend to fly by the seat of my pants rather than engage in long, drawn-out contemplation. And then, sometimes, I surprise myself with things which I think deeply about and from which i draw decently-thought out conclusions (good or bad). Still, this leap of your onto me is, while maybe somewhat justifiable, totally erroneous. Unless you are the real cop, I am as (or more) town as you.
Let me be clear, I am not the cop, and this is not a claim. I am simply a VT. One who plays somewhat badly, true, but VT nonetheless.
if you will, consider previous games which we have played together. Our first interactions led to your thinking I was scum. I somehow convinced enough people to not vote for me that I lived, and behold! I was town. (Joe & ZFR were scum). Then again, the game following that. Pooka was scum along with SPF and Dedo. I was VT and blinded by the scum, anmely Pooka (a major reason why i don't trust myself wanting to trust Pooka this game, thus being susceptible to ZFR's arguments. I don't think my playstyle has significantly changed since then.
(Hey, ZFR! You haven't finished updating the list in Post #2 of who was who and what in Game #59! Was this intentional?)

@ZFR: "why not TVT"? I don't know, but with both of you looking so badly (you've each convinced me that you're innocent and the other in the Pooka vs ZFR mess is scum) I highly doubt that the baith o' ye are in fact town.
If I set this whole mess aside, and do as Book did and look for scum outside of Pooka/ZFR, Red looks suspicious to some extent. Still, i'm not convinced he's scum, but he's moving up the ranks in that general direction.
Also, what Lift said I could repeat, but you've already seen it from him, worded better than I could (except that I was suspicious of Flub all along, sadly), so meh....

The one thing that gives me joy is that unless scum doeshave a godfather, which i do expect, their power roles are useless. :D

Um, the mafia ninja (https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Ninja) page at this moment has been blanked by perniciousparrot, if someone would please restore it and the other two pages which they blanked.

Well, I find it curious that Micro claimed vanilla after being brought to L-2, despite knowing that Bookwyrm (wagon starter) still has me as the most likely scum, and so do most of the other players. One would think that if he's town, then claiming VT makes it much easier for scum to find the cop if I happen to be filthy scum. Not to mention it didn't take him long to claim. I have a bad feeling about the claim.

Exactly. He repeatedly listed Pooka as suspect. But when push came to shove, he rather supported Pooka. So there is a discrepancy between pretended suspicion and actual action.

Why? What exactly bugs you about this? Is it a red flag for Red? Or are there too many people 'against' Pooka? You know, it is entirely possible that scum-buddies suspect each other?

I find it interesting how long Pooka has been at L-1 without getting hammered. There have been enough reasons floated around to do so while still pretending to do so for town reasons. So if he is really the Town-Cop, he would have made a tempting hammer target. No one took the opportunity. This could mean that either both scum are already on his wagon (if he is scum) or that his scum-buddy doesn't want to bus him. ... Of course it's also possible that scum just didn't dare to be the one to hammer. But still his long survival on L-1 looks notable.


I totally agree that Micro's reaction to the Pooka-claim felt off. But it also is a bit strange that you, after pushing on Pooka for basically the entire game, back off right when things get hot for him. Is that related to your observations in post 348 quoted above?


What? For me, whether Pooka is town or scum has a large influence on how I will read others. That's one of the reasons why I would like to have a flip of him. It's a mesh of relationships and actions. That's the use of flips - you get some certain information which you can use to unravel all the other information. So if your scum list is unchangeable, independent of how once central piece of discussion (Pooka's alignment) is resolved, then your scum list is probably made up and not based on analysis.

Also, like trent observed, you seem awfully jumpy with your vote. Seems like you are going for the easiest target.

Eh, yes. That IS a claim! You contradict yourself.


Well, I still want to see Pooka's flip. But right now, Micro and Red also look quite scummy. (in that order). The problem is, that not all three of them can be scum. At least one of them has to be Town... hmm.

THAT'S concerning.

-.-
Assume that you're town and Pooka is scum for a moment. What did you just do?

Irrelevant.

It is a red flag on Pooka, specifically the lead up to Pooka's claim. He claims worry about being lynched and possible scum sliding onto his wagon, he's apparently the Town Cop, he's got a hella lot of suspicion, but he waits until actual L-1 to make his claim and save his life. By your own words, you would have hammered him by accident if you hadn't refreshed first; that wouldn't even have been the first accident (or 'accident') we've had over the years (granted, I'm not sure we've had one while Pooka has been playing).

I had planned to wait until D3 and more flips to visit this, but yes, I think the wagon is very interesting. There was almost a conga-line rotation of people cycling on and off the wagon.

No, I backed off for the reasons stated in 343: Pooka is either getting killed by Mafia N2 or (almost certainly) counter claimed D3. If he gets NK'd, then we didn't spend a lynch on that particular townie. If he survives, we're getting more information one way or another, and he can't NOT give us that information.

If you think town benefits more from just lynching him now, then state your case. I'm listening.

This is why I said that, if Pooka turns Town, then despite the possibility of a GF I'd say you're definitely Town.

GF!Lift had the chance to hammer, which he didn't take. And while a regular mafioso might have been reluctant to hammer, fearing it would bring too much attention to him, a GF could do it much more easily. He could easily hammer and then blame me (or even claim an accident). Out of two suspects, the one cleared by Town Cop would have been much less likely to draw heat for lynching a Town Cop.