@Gogtrial, I appreciate your condolences. I hate being in this spot; I've been wrong every EOD (including my 1-SV action).

All of you are good at presenting convincing arguments, while I'm less good at picking them apart for truth.

@Pooka--game #58--Did you read the thread faithfully after you were NK'd?

Book was 100% on the ball last game; I imagine as scum he'd be able to lead us around by the nose without many of us noticing it. Gogtrial has a good point about Book leading the convo by asking for Pooka or Flub/Dedo's lunch, and also about us probably facing a grandmaster, not a relative-newb. Of course, this whole post could be WIFOM and low-key almost OMGUS/bussing of a non-teammate, in which case....

Flub, I agree with your statement that this is a game, and is played for fun.

Gogtrial, in #968, you trust Book and doubt Dedo. Now, it seems you doubt Book and (by elimination?) trust Dedo. Please point to exactly why you switched? You may feel like you're repeating yourself, but please try to summarize.

My list--as of now--it might change in 10 minutes--with summaries:

^^^Leans Scummier^^^

Flub (cryptic, hard to read; very useful traits if scum)
Book (because of gogtrial's posts)
Dedo (book throws shade)
Pook (book's shade)
Gogtrial (too good at town? tunneling?)
Micro (bad at this whole thing)

Of course, this could be massive shade thrown by scum!gogtrial, trying us to see things from t!gogtrial's viewpoint "scum would never invite investigation"

I'm really torn; when reading y'alls individual posts, I want to read each of you as town.

have you seen the question for you yet?

You mean for reading the previous game? I only learned later from the last few posts that Wyrm vig'd Joe to death and then they lynched ZFR on the same day, ending the game. But I haven't faithfully read the game. I was the first kill of the game proper ane couldn't be invested into the game as I was in thie previous one, or even as I am here.

If it's another question, please lead me to it. I answered some of your previous post in one of the big bookwyrm-focused posts.

ok, that was my question, because Joe breadcrumbed extensively therein (search that thread for "breadcrumb" via the script, and it turns up nicely)
There is this post regarding mafia breadcrumbing https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_58_disney_to_the_rescue/post557

My town-feeling for Bookwyrm was lingering from D3. The reason I put him as town there was because I didn't see anything off with him, including Joe, dedo and trent reading him as town, and I try to trust in the reads of others, as my own tend to be bad. But of course, Joe switched away from that in the end, and I did have suspicion on Bookwyrm... at the start of D2, I think, when Bookwyrm invited masons to reveal themselves, but the way my suspicion worked, it was mostly limited to the 1 remaining mafia scenario.

As I wrote in #986, in the current scenario, I had to examine everything anew, and so that's basically when I tried to set aside my "trust" of Bookwyrm. Not very successfully, as after his post, my focus was on trying to convince him that the dedo vote on flub could in fact be distancing, due to dedo having made the roles mistake before, and it being deliberate. I started to feel it was perhaps too much of a stretch, though, so I tried to see things from his perspective with the Pooka suspicion. And that caused me to reread Pooka and regain my conviction that Pooka really has to be town. And in trying to then write up the argument to convince Bookwyrm of that, I realized the inherent framing in the way Bookwyrm presented his argument. Things lined up pretty neatly after that.

I think the Bookwyrm-flub scumteam makes most sense from Bookwyrm's post, and it'll validate Joe and trent's reads of flub. My suspicion of dedo is such that I think a Bookwyrm-dedo scumteam is also possible, and maybe Bookwyrm saw something building on dedo which I didn't see, which made him need to make dedo a less good lynch. I haven't ruled out flub-dedo, but it remains a distant third choice.

Thank you. I very much appreciate your analyses--especially the bit about thought processes.

Since you think scum are:
Book/Flub,
Book/Dedo
or maybe
Flub/Dedo
have you thought out percentages of this? What odds would you give to those lineups?

How much of your suspicion of Flub is because of Townreads by deseized doctors?

I have thoughts but I am waiting to hear what you have to say. (I can convince myself of the towniness or scumminess of people, it seems, if I approach from the mindset of "this person has _______ alignment". How not useful.)

Bump

Thank you!

EBWOP: I have the ability to town- (or scum-) read nearly anyone, it seems, if I approach a read of them from the mindset of they are town (or scum). Bother.

@ZFR vote count and time remaining please. :D

I really want to do more work to make up my mind about flub and dedo, but at present:
50% book-flub
35% book-dedo
12% dedo-flub
3% pooka-*

Most of my suspicion of flub is because of bookwyrm, as flub was the most suspected player left, and so bookwyrm's actions make sense as trying to save his buddy for an immediate win, rather than dragging it out. Trent/Joe reading him as scum comes next, and is just as strong, if not stronger, than my own scum-read of flub (which is mostly PoE and the way he made the blotunga and GR wagons take off).

It might be worthwhile holding your thoughts until book, flub and dedo respond.

I have been writing a big post for the past hour and the power in the office just went out and I lost EVERYTHING!!!

Please, wait for me to re-do it and post it. I won't have enough time do it right now as I already wasted an hour but in the afternoon or at worst after I get home from work, I promise I'll write it again and post it.

Nobody voted. Day ends in about 36 hrs.

This so called derp-clear wouldn't really clear me, though, would it? At most it would put distance between Flub and myself but that's about it. As for distancing, would such carefully planned play be worth it considering I've already had him as my top suspect from before along with Scene (and by process of elimination left as last top suspect)? He is still among my lynch choices. If we were scum together I was practically bussing him since halfway of Yesterday.

On top of that you seem to be giving me enough credit for coming up and trying to pull off to moderate success such a play while at the same time you are smacking me for making a number of mistakes out of not paying [enough] attention which mafia don't need to do as they know perfectly fine what they are supposed to do?

I have to be Schrödinger's scum to be able to do that!

Also, this would be another point in general that I have to disagree with you (and others, I'm not sure if this came from you initially) on the notion that scum will be making mistakes by not paying enough attention. That may be true in some cases but a good scum will be as thorough if not more so than Town players exactly because they will be able to capitalize on poor Town play, whatever the reason for that is. That's why Yog and Wyrm and HSL (and probably others that don't come to mind in this instant) are so efficient as scum (and as Town, but the scum part is the point here) - because they pay that much attention and capitalize on it.

To be honest I don't want to be given Town credit on such matters (but not be deprived of it either). The whole point of rule 3 isn't that you are denied an extra weapon against scum who might be hiding behind it but common courtesy toward people in general. I don't think any of the players we still have here would try to abuse that rule for the sake of getting ahead in the game (I promise you I wouldn't ever. If I'm scum I'd rather try to twist something else or just take it but I won't come up with a cheap fake external reason for what I've been or haven't been doing in the game).

But if he's Town and Pooka is indeed mafia it will cost everyone Town dearly.

I am agreeing with him since most of what he has been saying makes sense to me and this has been going on for the better part of the game. At the same time I can't be both scum with Flub (from whom I allegedly tried to distance myself using with a convoluted play) and with Wyrm (with whom I'm apparently sticking till the bitter end). Why would I distance myself from mu scumbuddy flub but stick with my scumbuddy Wyrm?

Wyrm presented Pooka and Flub as the scum team and based on my own conclusions based on wagons and results so (and the a leap of faith in two cases) that is the scenario that makes the most sense to me.

I forgot this part:

This is tricky as you are currently doing something very similar - you are bashing the only other player that has been giving (maybe not you, but still) general Town vibes. Everything depends on how you look at things and what you're trying to pull out. Even if you're wrong, if you're set to find fault in someone it's not that hard to do so.

Anyway, I still have Flub as my top pick from before. Pooka is basically the alternative choice by principle of elimination.

I don't want to vote for Wyrm as I believe it's a mistake. We need to hit scum twice but only screw up once. If everyone else feels otherwise I believe there are enough other players here to do it.

I think I had more stuff in my original post but I can't remember what it was. This one does looks a bit smaller but I believe I managed to recreate most of it.

Also, Flub has been awfully quite. I'd like to hear what he things of all of this.

*quiet

Oh right! I agreed with this point. I still think there was more...