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General discussionGOG Mafia #59 - Previously on Mafia...(1130 posts)(1130 posts)
(1130 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted June 30, 2019
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flubbucket: That gogtrial34987 is wearing the smarty pants huh??
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dedoporno: And I'm wearing the dumb pants. What I wrote is completely and utterly wrong.
Imagine how I feel wearing the NO pants.


That's right. Cool and breezy.
Posted June 30, 2019
Doing a quick post on mobile. I'm a little tired and deserve a good night's sleep.

So Microfish. You said you left breadcrumbs behind. Please point us to them. As far as anyone is concerned, you used your lone vig shot, so now you're just as good as Vanilla Town. And whether it's TTT or T, the scum have other targets (everyone if TTT, the unknown power roles if T), so point us to them while you still can. We need all that information out in the open with little wriggle room.

As for gogtrial and dedo, I agree with gogtrial that a one sot vig can't know if there's full ones or not, short of multiple kills. I wonder what's going on here.

I am concerned about bookwyrm not showing up at all in the past few hours, but it could be real life running its usual courses here.

I should definitely do the ISO on flub I mentioned the previous Day, either tomorrow or the day after. And post the results and highlights too.
Posted June 30, 2019
Claimed and verified roles thus far:

Town 1-shot doc
Town doc
Town RB

SK
Mafia goon
2- verified VT

____________

2-claimed VT and 1 claimed one-shot vigilante.

That's 10 of 13.

Correct??
Posted July 01, 2019
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flubbucket: Correct??
Correct (although I've made mistakes in the past so get a 3rd opinion).
Posted July 01, 2019
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flubbucket: 2-claimed VT and 1 claimed one-shot vigilante.

That's 10 of 13.

Correct??
Correct.
If scum is fully among the claims, there's three people left for the potential real vig and/or potential further PRs.
If only one scum is among the claims, from their PoV there will be only two people left for the potential real vig and/or potential further PRs.
If neither scum is among the claims, then if there's a further PR, they'll know exactly who that is (but not what).

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dedoporno: But if he was Vanilla he would have known the setup doesn't include full Vig, only a 1-shot Vig who is now also Vanilla.
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gogtrial34987: How would a VT have known there is no full vig in the setup?
As far as I can tell, only mafia can have this knowledge.
Minor correction on that second statement: only mafia, and a potential full roleblocker or doctor can have that knowledge.

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flubbucket: What do you think about Vanilla Town roles claiming now??
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gogtrial34987: I see no benefit.

Scum knows exactly if there is only a 1-shot vig, or if there are other PRs as well, but in that case not who holds those PRs
If there aren't, then everyone else is VT; no-brainer for scum.
If there are, then VT claims will point out the PRs for scum.
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dedoporno: Scene actually helped me here! His flip showed me that we were in case 1 as I'm also VT.
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flubbucket: However, you give me too much credit for knowing what's going on. Vanilla town = me.
To both of you: did you read and understand what I wrote in #903 at the moment of claiming? If so, did you disagree, or what was your reason for claiming anyway?
Posted July 01, 2019
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gogtrial34987: .............
To both of you: did you read and understand what I wrote in #903 at the moment of claiming? If so, did you disagree, or what was your reason for claiming anyway?
yes...ish

Moar claiming = moar information.
Posted July 01, 2019
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gogtrial34987: Options could be:

DDBVDDT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + doctor)
DDBVVBT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + full vig + 1-shot roleblocker)
DDBVBBT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + full roleblocker)
DDBVVVT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + full vig)
Or
DDBVCCT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + cop)
DDBVCBT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + 1-shot roleblocker + 1-shot cop)
DDBVMMT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + mason + mason)
Which shows two possible six power roles cases as still possible.

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dedoporno: Based on the latest publicly available knowledge we knew that we either started with 4 or 6 power roles.

Scene actually helped me here! His flip showed me that we were in case 1 as I'm also VT.
So I thought I understood how you were wrong here, but it doesn't actually add up.
You claimed vt, and because of that and scene's vt flip, you thought you had certainty that we were in case 1 (4 power roles instead of 6), and that any vt should realize this.
But from your perspective, you still see flub, gogtrial, pooka, bookwyrm as unknown at that point. Two mafia, two PRs should still be possible.

Acknowleding that you've already stated that what you wrote was "completely and utterly wrong", please walk us through what you were thinking exactly to arrive at said wrong conclusion?
Posted July 01, 2019
And for completeness sake, a missing 8th configuration.
If we're in ??, then the possibilities for those two dice rolls are:
MM, but not 1 M (no innocent child announced)
DD, but not 1 D (with DDD, there'd be two full doctors, not the certain 1-shot doctor)
BB, or BC, or BV
CC, or CV
VV

So the total list:
DDBVDDT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + doctor)
DDBVBBT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + full roleblocker)
DDBVVVT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + full vig)
DDBVCCT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + full cop)
DDBVCBT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + 1-shot roleblocker + 1-shot cop)
DDBVMMT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + 1-shot vig + mason + mason)
DDBVVBT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + full vig + 1-shot roleblocker)
DDBVVCT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + full vig + 1-shot cop)
Posted July 01, 2019
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gogtrial34987: I was waiting to see who else noticed the strangeness of microfish's reaction. Not yet certain what to think about the way dedo and flub reacted. But first:
Please clarify extensively what you were thinking here, including but not limited to:
- How could trent pushing for flub be "tied to investigations"?
- Which "him" (trent or flub?) are you asking about with the RB question?
- Are you thinking of town-RB or mafia-RB?
I was weird and obscure because i didn't want to claim the 1-shot vig UNTIL a few others told the vig to speak up.
I think I answered 1) already -- I temporarily confused Doc & Cop; I should learn better than to post when falling asleep
2) See answer to 1) I think at the time, I was asking about Trent? Sadly, I'm not sure anymore. or maybe I meant if a T!RB blocked Flub, as THAT WOULD EXPLAIN, PERHAPS, A D2 NO-NK (unless Trent or Joe protected).
Posted July 01, 2019
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Microfish_1: ...........

I AM THE 1-SHOT VIG. I WAS TORN BETWEEN JOE & FLUB; I NOW WISH I HAD CHOSEN FLUB.

...........
To be honest, I wouldn't know who to shoot at this point either.

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gogtrial34987: ............
DDBVVBT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + full vig + 1-shot roleblocker)
DDBVVCT (Doctor + 1-shot Doctor + roleblocker + full vig + 1-shot cop)
Are these two possibilities in play if Microfish_1 is lying about his claim??
Posted July 01, 2019
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gogtrial34987: Acknowleding that you've already stated that what you wrote was "completely and utterly wrong", please walk us through what you were thinking exactly to arrive at said wrong conclusion?
At the time I looked at the letters as roles again and based on all the role evidence so far including my own and I assumed the TTTBDDV setup.

As in:

T = Vanilla Townie (myself)
T = Vanilla Townie (Blotunga)
B = Full Roleblocker (GR)
T = Vanilla Townie (Scene)
D = Full Doctor (Trent)
D = 1-Shot Doctor (Joe)
V = 1-Shot Vig (at the moment I wasn't sure who that was but Micro posted moments before I did so I just accepted his claim on the spot)

Therefore every other Town was supposed to be Vanilla as well.

It was completely and utterly wrong is it was wrong not on one but two different accounts:

1) I considered the letters as roles
2) I saw the 2 flipped Vanillas + myself as the 3 Ts in the supposed setup neglecting the fact that some of us may be the filler Vanillas and we aren't enough to nail it down.

Flub's line about Vanillas claiming instead of the killer Vig and Flub's accusation/vote on Micro about the investigation made me jump (I didn't even consider the more concerning aspect that vanillas claiming would expose PRs as I didn't think there are any PRs left to expose). If I'm not mistaken on this as well the scum should by now know the actual setup. Flub turning things on the Vanillas felt like a LAMIST statement which purpose was to let us know he wasn't aware of what was going even though he should have been as either scum or Vanilla Town (based on the original assumption that everyone remaining is VT). Micro was obviously mistaken talking about investigations as it made no sense in the context he spoke of it (Doctor) and Flub just voted him on it. That and the fact that I was already looking for damning evidence on Flub based on #778.

So, I jumped to the wrong conclusions without thinking twice and when Flub didn't provide a straight answer along with Micro's claim I just thought I had him dead to rights.

It was a very long week and yesterday was just as tiring (although it was the good kind as I took my family out for the day and it was lovely) and everything I read and wrote happened in such a short period of time that things just clicked too easy in a wrong way that made sense from a particular angle.
Posted July 01, 2019
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dedoporno: .........

It was completely and utterly wrong is it was wrong not on one but two different accounts:

1) I considered the letters as roles


...........
This clouded my thinking as well.
Posted July 01, 2019
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dedoporno: .....................
and when Flub didn't provide a straight answer
.....................
He pisses me off all the time.





**21 hours into the Day and still no Joe (Bookwyrm627).
Posted July 01, 2019
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flubbucket: **21 hours into the Day and still no Joe (Bookwyrm627).
That's concerning beyond the state of the game. Wyrm isn't one to hide for the sake of the game. I hope he's alright.


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flubbucket: Are these two possibilities in play if Microfish_1 is lying about his claim??
How can Micro be lying about it if no-one else counter-claims the kill?
Posted July 01, 2019
Just made an ISO on flubbucket, and I have to say...

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flubbucket: And don't come back with "my gut tells me...."
My gut tells me.... that flub is a major WIFOM. Let's do a quick summary of his posts.

----
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flubbucket: My PM says Jack the Ripper, Vanilla Town.

[not verbatim]
If he isn't humoring here, then he pretty much claimed to be a vanilla town. There is nothing hinting if it's a joke or real...well, until post 339 happens, with scene responding to the above quote.

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supplementscene: I know this is a joke, but if you were the SK you would be very hard to catch
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flubbucket: How do you "know" this is a joke??
One may think flub picked up on a scene scumtell with the "know" thing. But this response strikes me as odd. I'm not sure why.

Next up...
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trentonlf: ..............

My top belief for scum
flubbucket, his play for me is just off enough that I think he is scum. He gives very little away in his posts, but I find him to be more aggressive in his play that is hidden behind his humor.

...........
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flubbucket: You absolutely should not leench me because I'll not have a chance to investigate as a cop and also I'll not have a chance to stop a Night Kill as a doctor if I'm launched.
I'm genuinely interested in this contradicting claim. It also looks like the Jack the Ripper claim in that it appears like a joke, but here flub claims he's cop and doctor. What's the big idea?

Now for...
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GameRager: ..........

(I'd say more but I don't know what of our PMs/info we are allowed to reveal)
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flubbucket: You can say whatever you'd like.

Just don't "quote" your role PM.

I am Buffalo Bill, town lotioner.
He now claims to be Buffalo Bill instead of Jack the Ripper.

Eventually...
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trentonlf: I know my activity this game has not been the best and I apologize, but it will not get any better over the next few days. My oldest daughter Grace who just finished the chemo a couple of months ago will be getting married on Sunday so I will be pretty busy until then. Going to be a great weekend :-D

As for the game, I still say GameRager is a bad lynch. I see dedo also hinted I might be a cop but that's not the case, and I wish I could say I was as I would have something to do other than just read and post. No my reason for saying GameRager is a bad lynch is because I believe him. I still say flub is the best choice for lynch, but I sadly don't think that will happen today. If I end up being NK'd look at flub and possibly dedo for the scum team.
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flubbucket: **Congratulations and best wishes for the wedding day!**

How would keeping GameRager alive benefit town?? If he's lying then he's killing. If he's truthing, then he's going to be killed ...or NOT and used as WIFOM.

As for lynching me, I would make a better Night Kill.
I notice immediately that town doctor trent has given us two possible suspects for scumteam: flub, and "possibly" dedo. Just quickly looked at D2's final vote count, and flub and dedo are the 2nd and 3rd votes respectively on GameRager's wagon.

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gogtrial34987: D2 Final Vote Count
TOWN-GameRager 6 - Pooka, flub, dedo, TOWN-scene, Micro, Bookwyrm
flub 2 - TOWN-trent, TOWN-JoeSapphire
TOWN-scene 1 - TOWN-GameRager
TOWN-JoeSapphire 1 - gogtrial
HMMM...interesting. BOTH DOCTORS were on flub's wagon. What's the chance this could be a coincidence? That's quite a finding to be honest. I'd love to have more input on what this means. I know doctors protect others from nightkills and don't investigate, but how it could be?

But then to be fair, the only night that went without a kill was N2, and the prior night saw the death of SERIALKILLER-agentcarr16 and MAFIA-SirPrimalform. Is it more of a trent and Joe thing than two doctors agreeing on one person?

And on D3 (after the nightkilless N2), trent continues to be flub's wagon by EOD but Joe goes for Bookwyrm. Something interesting is going on here.

Oh, flub. I was distracted by Joe and trent, right.

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flubbucket: As for lynching me, I would make a better Night Kill.
Why would you make a better night kill? I'm really curious about this.

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flubbucket: JoeSapphire and dedoporno do NOT make me feel secure regarding their towniness.
Hmmm, why that is? Joe flipped and he was Town. Or let's take a page from your flub's book and ask. Hopefully my impression of him is accurate.
How do you NOT "feel secure" regarding their towniness??

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trentonlf: .............


Then I'm going on record that flubbucket is scum. I will be mocking with pelvic thrusts when I'm proven right.
............
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flubbucket: And when it shows I'm town what then??

I was obviously wrong, but what level of audacity would I have to have as scum to put myself out there like that??
Interesting question to think about. The closest answer I got is that you're relying on WIFOM, so the audacity would make sense. This reliance on WIFOM is also why I can't make sense of your early day role claims.

I'm still not sure whether the WIFOM shown in this post swings in scum's favor or in town's favor, which is something else I need input on. But there is something interesting about how both doctors were on his wagon D2, and trent (full doctor) continued being on his wagon D3, which should be studied.

What do you guys think of this? What of you, gogtrial?
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #59 - Previously on Mafia...(1130 posts)(1130 posts)
(1130 posts)