You won't see it coming!

That's fantastic! Congratulations, Joe! Give my regards to your daughter and wish her long and lovely family life from us!

Ah, I found it.

Why say this??

Congratulations! Have a blast!

And this?? Whutwhy??

Hope the wedding goes great!


Really? I know I'm voting for him but I picked him out of a list of four I got through a vague and uncertain process-of-elimination, and I chose him out of the four because I delighted in the image of flub being mafia and getting lunch for basically no reason and Joe going A-HA!!

But I'm happy to hear you've got good news and Life is Well!

===

Well if he's lying there's a decent chance it will come out isn't there?

I believe we can try to make sense of why he would or wouldn't do anything. I don't think it would be useless.


hm...

GameRager claims roleblocker - a town and mafia role
GameRager claims to have blocked scene - the only claimed vanilla currently alive in the game. Is that too convenient?

urgh,



Pooka's ready to add the final vote to your lunch. I'm starting to think I would vote for you too. Seeing as you're getting got anyhow, you may as well just tell us honestly now if you are mafia.


Thanks Dedo, though I can't claim TOO much credit ;)
(still posting at work?)

Speaking of convenience I just realized something - the Town roleblocker is the least likely role to appear. Mafia claiming it has that much lower risk of an actual Town roleblocker disputing the claim as that require at least 3 B's to be drawn from the range of 96-100.

I was referring to Trent who is also Joe :)


And yes, I'm done for a bit as I entering a meeting.

**Congratulations and best wishes for the wedding day!**

How would keeping GameRager alive benefit town?? If he's lying then he's killing. If he's truthing, then he's going to be killed ...or NOT and used as WIFOM.

As for lynching me, I would make a better Night Kill.

:000000000000!!!! NO WAY

So to clarify the odds of a Town Roleblocker coming up is either 3% or 4%?

GET OUT OF MY HEAD!!!!!


lol

He's also blocking?
If you choose to kill GameRager you're not killing whoever you would be killing if GameRager got lunched.
If you choose to leave GameRager alive for the wine, he's got another chance to block you in the future.


5%
one-in-twenty

Thank you everyone for the well wishes!

Yes Joe, my real name is Joe ;-)


Here’s my last food for thought and why I believe GameRager is a bad lynch. As I said I believe he’s town and it will be a mislynch. So if there are two scum left they need three mislynhces and three successful NK’s, lynching GameRager is the first step to making that happen. After GameRager my guess is Scene will be the next to be pushed for a mislynch as he has enough doubt surrounding him that it would probably succeed. Then it will come down to how town scum has been appearing to get the last mislynch and win. I am against giving scum the upper hand and lynching someone I believe to be town. GameRager and Scene are both low hanging fruit and I think scum are counting on that.

**Oh....I thought dedoporno was making a joke.**


Low hanging fruit or not, if they're scum they should be lynched.

I really wish the wagon on me would get some traction so I could point and laugh as you try to make some sense of the wreckage.

Congratulations; I hope it'll be an absolutely lovely weekend!

The odds of a single die coming up "B" is 5%.
Seven dice were rolled.
So the odds of no "B" coming up are 0.95*0.95*0.95*... = 69.8%. Which means that there's a 30% chance that there's at least one town roleblocker in the game.

How do you arrive at 3Bs being necessary?
"Disputing" in this game is always hard, as there's a chance of two tonies with the same role. However, the chance of 3Bs being rolled is very low, so a real town roleblocker would be rightly suspicious of a mafia claiming to be town roleblocker, as the odds of that are very low. Which means that it's actually more risky for mafia to claim town roleblocker.

Not liking how you're misunderstanding the mechanics here in such a way as to cast suspicion on GR (who doesn't need any help in that department).

Or if he's truthing, he's going to have a chance to prevent the NK, and win the game for us. Particularly if we're in the lone godfather scenario.

All right yeah if you want to work ALL of it out.



Can we do it?? I think we should do it?

I'm guessing, flub, you think the Joes are both town. Is that right?

Urgh. Rereading D1 scene with the knowledge that SPF is mafia, has made him go way down in my likely scum ranking.

Next up...
vote Joe (pending a reread)