So for me my biggest concern right now is Microfish, he ended the day yesterday on a wagon that had almost no chance of succeeding and has still not shown up today. He’s been very reserved this whole game, almost like a first time scum that’s not sure what to do.


Vote Microfish

This I can fully relate with.

Another day of Mafia, another day of Town doing more damage to itself than scum can do.

So, how do you address them?

Yours. Being hard to read keeps you in the "possible scum" category. The most recent post you mark in your analysis is 100 posts ago, which isn't a great look.

You mentioned doing some vote analysis or analysis of old posts in relation to the dead people, but I'm not seeing any of it. Here, I see two responses that talk about being suspicious of Scene, an unsupported judgement of likely town, and talk about flipping names again.

I suspect it was because Agent was mostly floating. Killing him doesn't tell town much, while killing some of the more active players may provide clues.

You're acting weird, Grandpa Dedo.

Yeah, reading this post (more than just the bit I quoted here) leaves me feeling all sorts of not good.

When thinking about what Agent did, put yourself in his shoes for a few minutes. Start with his victory condition, and then think through what you would need to do to achieve it.

SK has a certain freedom in that he needs to kill EVERYONE; he can go for any target of opportunity. He needs to make sure the mafia gets killed at SOME point, but he doesn't want them to go out too early because then everyone starts hunting specifically for him. It wouldn't hurt if he could claim credit for killing one, but he needs to avoid being too active in killing mafia so they don't retaliate against him.

I'd guess that Agent went for someone on the outskirts. I can't remember a single thing SPF did that was notable. He existed, he sort of posted, but he never left a mark. I'm guessing Agent wasn't aiming for Mafia, he was aiming to kill someone that wouldn't lead back to him. Based on events, Agent likely took Investigation Immune; there had to be a Town Vig targeting Agent in the mix if he took Bullet Proof, and as Dedo mentioned there isn't a lot that would paint Agent as a target for a Vig. Future nights should clarify this.

Also keep in mind that Agent didn't know anything more about the scum team than Town did. Don't try to analyze his reactions to identify his partners (or mafia) because he literally had no allies in this game. It might be worth looking over his posts for scum hunting, but we have no guarantee that he was actually doing any scum hunting, since mud serves him much better than clarity.

You used an awful lot of words to say absolutely nothing. Why make me read so many words that don't do anything? :(

The names DO have meaning, but they aren't going to tell you anything about the game state.

I plead the fifth. If I did kill him, it was either because I thought he deserved or because I wanted a low information kill or because he had the nicest skin and I wanted it. One of those.

-----

We know there are at most 2 mafia remaining, with a decent chance there is only one mafia remaining, and we know there is only 1 non-Town NK floating around.

Masons, if you exist, then please claim now. Mason claims would allow each townie (except the Masons themselves) to effectively clear at least 3 players out of the 10. That narrows the field quite a bit, and seeing who isn't cleared by the mason claims could be very enlightening indeed.

If you are a group of 3 Masons, then that goes triple, since scum can't claim that.

Care to elaborate?

Do you just mean lynching blotunga while mafia and serial killer get each other? Or something else?



You think that was a lot of words?

Are you correcting me here? Or just making sure the group is clear about the information? As in - did you think that I wasn't aware that the names have some significance, and that when I said they meant nothing I was trying to say that I thought they were pure nonsense?

Which was it? I'm guessing you thought he deserved it? How do you mean?



Why do this now? As opposed to yesterday for example?




Almost like a first time scum that's not sure what to do? Is that how first-time-scums tend to behave?

His last post timestamp says three days ago, do you think he's not posting out of choice? Is is a scumtell to deliberately avoid the end-of-day entirely?

@MOD ZFR
has microfish been modprodded?

He's certainly about to get non-modprodded.

NOD PROD


This is interesting.

Fish - how do you feel about lynching supplementscene today?

He's still got 2 hrs... I'll prod PM him nonetheless.

Something feels strange about them. On one hand, it is consistent with how trent plays. He'd rather get a mislynch if it nails us information than end the day without one.

On the other hand, he unvotes scene after thinking my voting him and putting him at L-2 was opportunistic, goes for blotunga, then unvotes him, then votes scene later. And on the last stretches of he day, he hammers blotunga. Something just feels off here. He's inconsistent with how he usually goes after the scummiest looking person.

After being sure that scene was the scummiest the whole game, and knowing that scene was the one who brought blotunga at L-1 (yet hammering him right afterwards), and now him voting Microfish for being reserved, a lot of alarms are being sound in my head. I don't think a scummy but lurky Microfish can appear scummier than an active and posting scum supplementscene.

(Also if anybody's interested: Microfish's absence has a meta reason in that he was involved in a Secret Hitler game on Discord that dragged on for too long. Though it was over a couple days ago, even before the Night started if I recall correctly, so I'm STILL not sure why he isn't making an appearance on D2 at least now that the game is over and he isn't joining any others.)



I already took on the whole SPF and carr thing (or at least carr, I viewed gogtrial's summary on SPF and found it sound as I was quickly going through SPF's posts for myself), and as you could see, there's not much to get out of them. I think the next logical step is blotunga's wagon, since I talked about the wagon's hammer above.

But you are right in that trying to figure out the people Carr interacted with are pointless. I mainly did that to see where he flung the mud. In the end, I don't really recall a single noteworthy thing he did before the Day ended off the top of my head, much in the same way you found the same of SPF.

Out of curiosity, the Serial Killer does need to kill everyone, Town and Mafia, before winning the game. Assuming Agent didn't die on Night 1, how would he see through to his victory? I know he needs to not be too active with the mafia hunting, but what is the best playstyle for a SK to ensure his victory condition?



The low kill information thing probably makes sense in the context of Agent, since SPF had no dirt on him. But why didn't he go after Microfiish? The dude so far has done nothing much. By offing him, we would have less to work with than we do now with SPF (which isn't all that much granted, but it is something). Then again, I'd have to understand how an optimal Serial Killer play goes, as the fact they inherit town's cluelessness and mafia's scummy nature sounds like it is one hell of a stressful game.

FYI, Micro has also been prodded on discord.

CAN I GET A BUMP PLEASE Ahhh I wrote a huge thing on Trent quoting all his posts and asking him questions and because I copyed and pased something else I lost it. Ahh well maybe it's for the best as he has a new post that looks interesting.

Day 1 Observations

@Joe what do you make of SPF being on your wagon for so long until late into Day 1? Is he your scumbuddy this time?

@GOGTRIAL - Blotunga stated you misrepresented him and I've claimed the same about some of your posts. How do you feel about this after he flipped town?

@Bookwyrm - why switch wagons and not switch back at any stage? Why not argue harder for your preferred wagon if you preferred me?

For me I'd stick with being suspicious of both Gogtrial, Trent and Bookwyrm. Note Blotunga also stated he was happy to lynch Gogtrial

However given Blotunga was Town though, there might have been none other than Agent. Agent was kind of weird the way he put me to 2 votes on RTS so retrospectively, that makes sense. He looked busy the whole day by jumping to different wagons, asking why people voted but less analysis than when he was last Scum.

Agent seemed the most Liberal on my wagon but maybe he was trying to seem the most Liberal. I actually thought with Blotungas behaviour he would flip Mafia but Agent was the suspect unvoter after all. But Agent being on my wagon doesn't make me look any better given he didn't know anyones allegance

For me one question is. Who was happy to be on both wagons? The answer is Trent. That doesn't mean he's necessarily Mafia but personally I like to stick on 1 wagon and try to convince others to come over for all the success that has granted me.

PRE POST EDIT - As Trent points out Bookwyrm also switched wagons. I forgot this happened. Did he make enough effort to convince anyone?

I also question, did he really believe Pooka was suspicious because Pooka voted for Scene nearer the end with (was it 2 days to go?) because Pooka said he didn't want an early lynch? Does that make sense, especially after Pooka

BUT, then I look at SPF. Why was he so vehemently on Joe's wagon for so long? When I play Scum I like to distance by jumping on a Scumbuddies wagon. Was SPF doing this? It almost means SPF doesn't have to fear offending Town players.

Why did Joe stay on a Town wagon and not move to mine or any others as the game developed? It's almost lazy and it's what he did as a 3rd faction when he kept his vote on me. I asked him about it twice to actually get the response to why Blotunga was on his wagon.

Joe is very much a viable wagon because of this.

I was planning a corporate merger this afternoon. Months of planning. I shall call it off to make you happy Lift.

Do I get modkilled if I make another merge?

BUMP PLEASE

Bump

This is impossible, by the way. Masons only come in pairs. If there is an odd one he would be an Innocent child and we would know about it.


You are aware that at least one of these can't be scum, possibly two, correct?

That doesn't really mean anything though. We know that it was a legit suspicion but that doesn't automatically make it correct.


I'm not sure if that's entirely correct. I've come to expect trent to not vote for whomever just for the sake of voting without finding said player at least a bit scummy.

I'm not certain he was happy to be on both wagons. At least he tried to make it look the other way around.

For the protocol I would have also done the same if we didn't have the numbers to seal blotunga's lynch on time but we had them for yours (and if was around during the whole time, of course). I didn't have to but for all intents and purposes you can assume I did as I would have if needed.

Not from me. If it was up to me, I'd let everyone edit their posts all day long. But my mod partner Lift... he's crazy. Really hates mergers. I wouldn't put anything past him.

In all seriousness though: please do be careful everyone. Don't test my leniency too much.

I'm surprised you would think that "we know how many scum are alive" isn't useful information for town, especially since it also helps inform us about what roles scum have.

Beyond that, the tone I'm getting from your posts (overall) feels...off. I'm not getting a town!dedo vibe from you this game.

It was mostly tongue in cheek, referencing that Town lynched town while (presumably) mafia and sk killed each other.

Compared to "This post isn't saying much useful."? Yes.

Sounds like I misunderstood you on this point. It sounded you were saying that they were pure nonsense; I've seen enough to know they aren't, but they also aren't game relevant per word-of-mod.

I plead the fifth. Read into that whatever you like.

Yesterday was D1. Also, yesterday we didn't have a mafioso and an SK dead on the ground. The space for scum to hide gets very, very small once (true) mason claim(s) hit the board, scum get stuck in a very ugly situation of having only one NK and too many confirmed townies and an unknown number of Doctors/Roleblockers, and any town vig will know who NOT to target. All sorts of possible good stuff.

And a note to townies: Please do not claim mason if you aren't a mason.

---

I've got a meeting to attend, no time to address the remaining posts since my last post. There is one exception, because it is short and easy.

---

I guess Scene will call you town.

Re-reading and I think Joe is Mafia:

1. Joes asks my opinion of Blotunga after I stated it. I then ask him his opinion of Blotunga. He initially misses this. I ask him again and he replies. He's clearly not reading everything, something Mafia feel they don't need to because they know everything

2. Initially Joe answers 'I'm wondering about Blotunga what do you think of him' after keeping his RVS vote on him. I Then I ask him his opinion of every player including Blotunga. He doesn't reply about Blotunga but does a superfiscial statements about most of the other players. Surely he should be first commenting about the person he's voting for but no.

3. SPF had his vote on Joe for a long time. They are friends outside the game. But I believe a good game reason is that they were drawn together. SPF can avoid upsetting a Town player while distancing from a Scumbuddy.

4. In post 223 he finally analyses Blotunga. The focus isn't on the odd vote then initial reply to Pooka which seemed the most suspect but replies that retrospectively didn't look suspect.

5. He defends me to Trent regarding me ignoring the set up. This seems buddying to me.

6. No real accusations or suspicions of anyone. He asks load of questions but no real firm opinion of his own.

7. When asked by Gogtrial 'is the Joe vote a real feeling', SPF said 'The vote was sort of RVS, the thinking behind it was serious but not enough to support actually lunching him at this point.'

It's a long RVS vote and supposedly 'serious' despite Joe not really saying anything of note

8. Joe uses the phrase LUNCH instead of LYNCH

VOTES JOESAPPHIRE


While I admire the effort, I'm not sure this tells us much. For one I don't think Serial Killers know other players alignments but I could be wrong. Agent's win condition means he needs to not be a threat to any other player.

In answer to your question of his strategy, it's damn near impossible to pull off although apparently it happens about 17% of the time. There's no way I could ever pull it off. Maybe a player who seemed easy to manipulate would

Now regarding Trents back and forth votes, it kind of doesn't sit well with me. He obviously preferred the Scene wagon but made sure to hammer Blotunga about 25 minutes prior to deadline. Not necessarily Town Trent does hammer.

Come to think of it though SPF defended Trent when I claimed Trent was happy to hammer Town players in post #141. This probably means Trent is Town. As I don't think SPF actively defends a scumbuddy.

Was he reasonable to suspect you for voting Scene several days later?

Good to hear, I'm off to edit all of the really suspicious posts I've made now I've been given the okay on this