Wow so a SK and Mafia player down over night. Agent went for a quiet strong player and got someone who I read as Town. So that's a good one.

Agent play was somewhat unusual but I kind of wonder 'why is he the choice for Mafia'. An odd choice and almost as if it's meant to give a reaction. Like:

"Well if they wanted to kill Agent it probably means the players he was against were fascist".

Ofcourse they could of been aiming for the SK and voted on a player who wasn't on a wagon. Maybe that's more likely

Anyway, analysing Day 1 voting - I have more insight than any other Town player on this because I know my alignment, I'm Town

So 2 Town Wagons - other Town players may decide there was 1 Town and 1 Mafia but the Mafia wagon growing so quickly early doesn't really add up unless it looks like I'm really that suspect, which given I went to 5 votes with 1 Mafia player definitely not on my wagon. So what we know:

1. Mafia players could of stayed off the Town Lynch wagon in order to look like they weren't lynching a Liberal. But SPF was happy to be on Town Blotungas wagon - this makes Scene look the Mafia player here ofcourse.

2. Some Mafia players could have stay off the heaviest wagon on purpose.

3. 1 player, Trent, moved at the end to make sure a Town player was hammered. This is maybe not the case as Town or Mafia. But Trent knows no moves may mean no misslynch.

4. GOGtrial asked why Trent hammered Blotunga near deadline. Why is this? Gogtrial himself had 5% difference in likelyhood of myself and Blotunga being fascist so why was he concerned about players he didn't have much of difference of opinion being lynched? GOGtrial also noted Trent wasn't suspect for being 4th voter on my wagon within 24 hours of the game starting

5. Trent moved from Town Scene, to Town Blotunga, to Town Scene back to hammer Town Blotunga

Vote Trent
Town players read everything because they don't know anything. Mafia players don't bother to read everything because they know everything. So yet again, this makes it likely from my POV you're Mafia.

Also it's obviously better to lynch a town player who isn't paying attention over a player that is paying attention.

It is good...I agree.
======================
I still don't see how having less town players means it's a good thing. To me it's just one less ally to prevent a scum win.

That was probably the best Night phase we could have hoped for. I find it super funny that the SK and Mafia probably killed each other.


So you’re admitting to being Mafia?

Yea I always F this up after a few drinks tbh

Assuming you are a town player. Note I haven't actually voted for you

You seemed to think I was town before. Can you explain the back and forths in your thought process please?

1. It happens.

2. Good points.

3. What post did he mention he thought you were town(to refresh my memory)? If this is true this is a good question and one i'd also like to see answered.

Niiiiice! 10 players, 1-2 mafia left. I like our odds.
If it's only 1 mafia, it'll be a godfather. If it's two, it's either goon and roleblocker, or godfather and roleblocker.
Anyone who was or gets blocked, realize that you know for certain that we're in the two mafia situation, while most of us won't.

SPF interactions:
#23: [vote flub]
#26: flub
#28: gogtrial
#30: gogtrial
#36: scene
#38: Joe
#68: scene
#70: Joe, Bookwyrm
#99: Joe, [vote Joe] (technically only in #101)
#113: dedo
#139: scene
#141: scene
#143: scene
#148: blotunga
#194: scene
#215: scene
#228: scene
#235: Joe
#342: gogtrial, scene
#347: blotunga
#349: blotunga
#382: Bookwyrm, [vote blotunga]
#389: scene, trent
#402: Bookwyrm, trent
#406: trent
#421: gogtrial
#427: Joe
#429: gogtrial
#434: trent
#439: flub

I think SPF is too good a player to completely avoid interacting with fellow mafia on D1. That means that Microfish, PookaMustard, GameRager are very likely town in my book. (But of course WIFOM.)

Some posts to highlight, which I think might be significant / might shed some light on SPF:
The wagons at this point were:
blotunga 4 - JoeSapphire, flub, dedoporno, Bookwyrm
scene 4 - gogtrial, GameRager, Pooka, trent
gogtrial 2 - scene, Micro
trent 1 - agentcarr
JoeSapphire 1 - SirPrimalform
flub 1 - blotunga

with trent voting for scene in #380, two posts before SPF's blotunga vote.

@Joe (or anyone else who knows): how likely is SPF to bus fellow mafia, how likely is he to defend them?

I’ve already answered this question before Day 1 ended, but I am guessing you didn’t read it?

Cha-ching!

Catching up but this is good stuff.

I like what you got of posts on SPF (down to tracing down every bit of interaction he had), but I have a question on the quoted part. I just checked the C9++ page to make sure I'm not missing anything, so I'd like your answer on this.

The C9++ setup includes instructions on the role distribution, including cops, doctors, masons, vigilantes...and roleblockers. And all this before the scum roles on the page. So that means there can be town roleblockers, correct? Which means that being roleblocked doesn't necessarily mean we're up against a goon and a roleblocker, right?

The other question to look at is: why would mafia target agentcarr (presuming that's what happened, though of course with potential vigs in the mix, everything could be up in the air). Mafia likely would've expected him to flip town. So, what opinions did he hold, where a dead town agentcarr wouldn't implicate actual mafia as scum?

I don't have the time to check up on this tonight (still haven't made use of the sale, and less than two hours left to figure out what I want to get). If someone else feels like doing that analysis, please be my guest. Otherwise I'll try tomorrow, depending on developments.

Bump, just in case.

Thanks!
Yep, you're right. Went too fast there and didn't check my logic. So no way yet for anyone to narrow down in which scenario we are.

Is that terribly important at this instant? At best we'll know there are two mafiosos which doesn't give us anything useful, at worse a Town PR can out themselves for that same nothing.

I'd suggest to skip over such discussion for the time being and focus on the 3 dead bodies we have at our hands.

I did a quick re-read on agent and I couldn't find anything that would trigger a Vig kill so my assumption would be that he got murdered by the mafia. As of why - there can be various reasons - he might have ticked them as a PR (I don't find that likely or at least I can't see what would would made them think that), they might have felt threatened by him - he was strictly interested in 2 particular people in terms of voting on D1 - scene and trent or they may have went for a (semi) random kill just because.

Now SPF I can see as a Vig kill a bit more but I'd still prefer to think that he was agent's handy work. No idea why though - some of the above may apply just the same to him but I haven't went back to check his posts yet.

Bad Scene! Your post merge has been noted. Consider yourself warned! DON'T risk a merger again!