Joy. And loud chuckling.

Thank you very much @ZFR & @LIFT for hosting this game! Thank you all for playing! It was fun, even though we lost.

Aaargh. Big mistake here. The TTTTTTT of course can be ignored in the final calculation, but it can't be ignored when calculating weights, since there is a possibility of it appearing.

The probability of it appearing is very small (requires 7 Ts) so it doesn't have that big of an effect on the final solution, but it should be taken into account nonetheless.
So:
TTTTTTT has (7! / 7! * 1!)) = 1 permutation (duh! all Ts).
TTTTTXX has (7! / (5! * 2!)) = 21 permutations
TTTXXXX has (7! / (3! * 4!)) = 35 permutations
TXXXXXX has (7! / (1! * 6!)) = 7 permutations

And the final answer becomes:

[(1 - 1) * 1/64 ] + (this is the TTTTTTT part that here resolves to 0 and can be ignored here. The weights though have changed slightly)
[(1 - 0.9*0.9) * 21/64 ] +
[(1 - 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) * 35/64 ] +
[(1 - 0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9*0.9) * 7/64 ]

= 0 + 0.06234 + 0.18807 + 0.05125
= 0.3016627

Which is...
Almost exactly same as the original probability to the point that it makes me wonder whether these two values are actually same or just pretty close.

EDIT: Yup the value is actually exactly same.

Conclusion: Knowing that a Serial Killer exists, does not change the probability of B appearing. This actually can be common-sense confirmed by looking at the fact that Serial Killer appears in exactly half of the possible permutations. The ones where he does and ones where he doesn't are "symmetrical".

The probability of B appearing does change for Mafia, who know the exact letter setup, or for an RP, who know if 1 or more letters are taken. It also would have been different if SPF was the roleblocker instead of dedo, since in that case with SK and Mafia roleblocker revealed, only TTT or T combinations are possible.

I only thought that you were scum cause SirP was hinting at it. When he did that I recalled how you said "I'm disappointed that even Joe is town-reading me" or something like that and I was like "he played me for a sucker!!!"

Then the hints got a bit much and I started thinking you probably were just town again... but by that time it wouldn't have been prudent of me to drink the Codeine In Front Of You.



just noticed that Beatrice and Admiral ZaFiRos made it into the game that's very funny.

Oh yeah. I hope the flavour/names, as much of it as it was, was at least somewhat funny.
They get a night kill, which cannot be stopped since there is no live Doctor or Blocker, and it becomes 2-2 next day. So a win is inevitable.

Oh then that makes sense....thanks for the clarification.


(Also make sure to read my reply to you in the sin episodes thread of yours. ;))

This forum doesn't do monospacing, so pretty much all ASCII art is going to come out wonky. I didn't know the American flag was named Old Glory though!

Actually, at no point was I hinting at gogtrial being scum, my question to HSL was genuine. When I was cheering gogtrial on it was because he was attacking Bookwyrm. :P

Cheers mafia. 'Twas a hard-won victory with a start like that.


Also, I have to admit that it's pretty hilarious that scum deliberately didn't want to kill SK N1, and yet still managed to. Frustrating, but hilarious.

Were you trying to kill scum? What was your plan about co-existing with the mafia team?

I was aiming for scum on N1, hoping to get a bit of an edge, since it's much harder to hit scum than town. Then I'd be doing my best to play both sides.

Good job figuring out SPF then!

Thanks. He was just quiet enough that I was suspicious. You've got four people killed on N1. It's been bugging me all game, lol.

Bah!

Boo!

Ey Booboo.....let'sa go get us some pic-a-nic baskets.