uhhh...ok. If I squint really really hard that kinda starts to make sense.



2. Thus why I said "would vote" not vote agent ;)

unvote

1. Well, for one, go back and look at the whole explanation where he votes P1na. It's not just the vote so I'll cut that out - nothing else there strikes you as particularly odd? Or "convenient," if you prefer?

Apparently cristi was also NKed and Lift forgot to mention it. ;)


I spent part of the day imagining how mud could possibly be mafia, mostly just because I scoffed it off yesterday without actually thinking about it seriously.

I came down to that I guess if it were Ix/mud/cristi maaaaaybe, in which case cristi's opposition to double lynch was tactical because it would kill two teammates.

I mean, that would be totally brilliant. But also, you know, unlikely.

I don't see any other viable argument that mud is realistically mafia here, but....maybe I'm missing something. I'd ask flub, but he's moved into lockdown mode.

FWIW, I really don't care about the whole contradiction argument - even if it looks technically true that there's a contradiction if I look hard enough, I'm not sure why that's possibly alignment indicative in any case. Sooo....who cares?

Oh, and on that point, the other reason I'm looking at agent is POE. I don't think it's mud, and I'm pretty skeptical it's cristi+flub. So...aside from actual pings from agent in both his D3 vote posts, there's the practical matter of pretty slim alternative theories.

I'm actually in locktown mode thank you very much.



I agree with voting agentcarr16.

I'm awaiting muddysneakers explanation of my contradiction.

I've lost track in the flurry of posts since last night - can we get an updated vote count please?

You keep mentioned two more mafia. So agent plus...who? flubb or cristi?

I'm not too interested in this anymore but I'll try again.

You state quoting post 11 from the mod "The only unrevealed thing is, if there are any neutrals at all and if yes, which ones".

You go on to reply to SPF that there may not be a scum cop "This is not a fact, merely a possibility. No where did the mod confirm all roles listed are in this game".

Except in post 11 the mod did confirm. The mod said (paraphrasing) here is the list of roles roles in the game. The only thing I haven't told you is whether there actually are neutrals nor which ones nor how many. The roles in the game have been revealed only neutral roles are in doubt. Town and mafia roles are not in doubt.

Now this isn't strictly accurate because the mod also didn't tell us how many mafia or townies there are nor who was who so there are in fact lots of unrevealed things in the game.

Well, we're not double-lynching with 5 players and the p2 mechanics combo, so that would seem to be a problem for whoever of us is alive tomorrow. At this point, it's likely to be LYLO, so the best bet is to pick right today and worry about tomorrow's vote tomorrow. They'll NK someone and that will narrow the field.

Unless we lynch and it's not agent, in which case we lose tonight. And maybe I'm wrong and it's just 2 and we win or get another shot. /shrug

But similar to the D2(?) conversation about the NK, there's no cop here, so moving towards a possible F3 tipping your hand too much might influence whether you live or get NKed, even with a PR still in play.

For example, say hypothetically you're mafia - based on what each of us has said do you NK me or flub going into F3? I've said you're probably town - flub says you might be maf (though he's playing in a mode where even if he's town he may or may not actually believe it when saying that). But either way, if those were your two choices maf!you kinda have to kill the person who implied they might vote you over the one who indicated they probably won't, right?

Town (or neutral) has some of the same considerations as maf, but town doesn't pick the NK.

And even making requests is generally frowned upon ;)

I suppose because if P1na had investigated me and new I wasn't town it wouldn't matter if Ixam came after me because P1na would call BS on it but if P1na hadn't investigated me it would make me look quite a bit more townie? Same applies to cristi I presume?

Regarding agent he was way off on P1na and SPF but he's been off all game with the exception of Ixam.

F3 is...final 3? You don’t NK at final 3. You NK at final 4 to leave 3 left. I assume you’re hypothesizing agent is lynched here. What happens to cristi then?

What do you think of agent as neutral survivor? Have you considered it? That's where I've been leaning since EOD.

1. Well...not quite. If I'm understanding your question I was looking more at EOD activity than the original claim, other than that if it were you/Ix, why that claim?

And to your point even if P1na had copped you, he might not have enough info to say otherwise so on its face it wouldn't be an unreasonable gamble if you were maf.

I'm not sure I can make enough sense of Ix's claim to try and guess what he might've thought was real vs. what was faked. But it seems like at least your part of the claim he was...probably...winging based on your response to him voting you initially and then unvoting you and your mention of neutrals while that was going down was a shot in the dark that would explain the unexplainable if he guessed right.

But IDK. It could've been planned, weird as it was. But this time Occam's Razor works in your favor.

2. Well, agent or anyone really. Point is we're at F5. With this rule set we have to lynch 1 (or 2, but mathematically that doesn't really work in a number of ways) so it's F4 going into night. There's exactly 1 NK unless they forget, I suppose, and then D5 would start in F3, yes. Thus the "going into F3."

What do you mean what happens to cristi? She's either the lynch or is venged by the lynch, is the NK, or she lives til F3. Those are the options. I don't follow.

You seem suddenly quite concerned with cristi. ;)

Yes those are the options but you only gave me the option of NKing you or flubb and presumably agent was the lynch so I was curious what happened to cristi. I know who I would NK but like you said I'm not going to tip my hand and it also depends on who we lynch. I'll let you know Tomorrow if we're both alive.

Regardless I still think agent could be neutral and so I'm hesitant to vote him here.

Catching up, post holiday craziness the past two days.

Yea for the computer flaking right before Black Friday. New computer is scheduled to arrive Thursday. Had planned to wait until summer, instead I bought an early Christmas present. :-)

@muddy - ddin't get to answer your D3 questions before EOD. Yes, I think bler is town. Any time I start to doubt, I remind myself of the scuffle with scene. I just don't see scum!bler allowing town!scene to get under his skin. And I don't think it was an act.

I did consider a scum!muddy partner with Ixam. I find it highly unlikely. If you two dreamed that up, I am OK losing to that.

When SPF flipped lyncher, it did lead me to believe we have three scum. Three scum makes sense if the lyncher's target is scum. Don't know is that was intentional by the mod or a random draw of chance. If it was a random draw, 3 scum seems less likely.

If bler and muddy are town, that leaves agent and flub. I have more doubts about flub than after the first two days. Agent, however, would be my top choice for lynch.

Sure.

Everybody 0 - no one

Not voting: everybody