Anyone else reading this as a possible scum slip? As scum shouldn't I only be worried about day lynches and have 0 concern about nightkills in this particular game? I've already claimed I'm not neutral so that leaves only town and scum and if you're saying I'm not town then as scum I have nothing to worry about during the night. I only have to worry about a nightkill if I'm telling the truth. As it is me as neutral or scum isn't what's on the table anymore toDay. It's me vs you.

Your motivation for voting for Ixam instead of me would be to bus him and make yourself look far more townie in the process.

Logical, factual? No. Only certain players here can know if Ixam is lying (myself, Ixam, PC, scum, and cristi possibly). If you're not one of those players you have to go off reads. I don't think either of us has done anything that someone can definitively point to and say this is scum without being in the above group.

I don't follow this at all. I don't understand what you're saying nor what you think I said. Also as I've been tunneling on Ixam pretty hard right now what are you referring to with agent? And ATE had to look that one up. Please clarify this so I can make sense of it.

Point #2 makes a double lynch a no-go. It would be too easy for scum to change the vote at the last minute (unless they are all bussing their partner).

@bler - on a scale a 1-10, how confident are you with your vote on muddy (1 - no confidence, 10 fully confident)? Paranoia is real.

I re-read a bit of Ixam. Didn't see anything that changed my mind. From today, I don't think scum!Ixam continues to 'wonder' if muddy is neutral or scum.

If muddy is scum, flubb is most likely town. I don't see scum!flub bussing his buddy.

Actually, I've thought about this some more. Since we don't know exactly when the end of the day is, it would be very unlikely for scum to get away with this. There's a very great chance of them either waiting too long before moving or moving too early and exposing themselves with plenty of time for the rest of us to react. So if there was a consensus for it I could see it working.

As for Ixam's last post, it kind of comes across to me like he's making excuses for tomorrow (because he won't have a result so he's saying it'll be useless in advance).
I feel reasonably comfortable
voting for Ixam.

It is a slow evening. The villagers had handed in some turkey. Probably they wanted to be friendly to the prisoners to appease their concience. Or it is supposed to be a last meal. Anyhow, most are stuffed after the meal and the discussions are only mellow. Outside the storm abates while you check the dishes whether there are still some leftovers.

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Vote Count:

Ixam 3 - muddy (540), agent (584), SirP (589)
muddy 3 - bler (520), flubb (526), Ixam (560)
P1na 1 - self
cristi 1 - self

It takes 5 to lynch. Ixam and muddy are tied at L-2.
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Fascinating development.

This assumes townies/neutral are in a position to move and observing the thread when it happens. No guarantees there. Also assumes a late vote change isn't a townie with a change of heart.

This also only works if there is no potential for hammer ie we're at 3 votes each today not 4 votes each. If we're at 4 votes each and mafia switches there is no reacting to it. Its just over.

What information is gained by lynching both muddysneakers and Ixamyakxim??

That's a very good point. One would assume the mafia would already be on the wagon for the one telling the truth, but it's not guaranteed.

Indeed. This whole thing could be a ploy to draw the cop out. Sure claiming would get us out of the dilemma we're currently in, but I doubt the real cop would last much longer under those circumstances. Claiming is probably better as a last resort, rather than screaming "LIAR!" at the top of their lungs, the smarter play would be to try and guide the town towards the correct lynch without revealing oneself.

1. One of the two of them is scum* so lynching both is a guaranteed scum hit. Assuming 3 mafia, we're at MYLO right now so picking the wrong one is probably game over. Lynching both is a known outcome - while it's not as good as getting the right one, it's a lot better than getting the wrong one.

2. Wagon analysis. Having said that, even if one is lynched then there's still the other (smaller) wagon to be looked at. If muddy flips town or Ix flips scum then I'd be interested in those that accepted Ix's story without question.



*I say one of them is definitely scum since if muddy were neutral I see no reason to claim town. In fact if muddy were scum I would have expected him to claim neutral, which gets him a couple of town points.

I think if the PC doesn't counter claim he/she runs the very real risk of being the NK tonight anyways. If you assume Ixam is lying and there even will be a counter claim then you have the following:

8 players remaining for PC
-2 for Ixam and at least 1 scum buddy
-1 for me ( I think its safe to assume I would have claimed by now if it was me)
-1 for cristi (if scum knows she's town they know she's vanilla town because of the mafia cop)
that leaves best case scenario 1/4 odds for scum hitting the PC tonight if it is completely random. Then you add in the possibility of 3 scum instead of 2 and that becomes 1/3. And if scum investigated one of those 3 people on a previous night you've got 1/2. And at that point scum could probably look at posts and reads and make a pretty good guess.

Literally just flying through



1. Requires a number of assumptions but yes, that's true. If we lynch wrong we're probably in even worse position than that. And re: LYLO, were you assuming that we'd be no lynching on D4 at F5 or F6? ;)


Not trying to be dismissive, but please clarify which you want me to clarify. If I tried to explain the whole thing it would be multiple changes.

TLDR: cristi asked two questions, I answered them ;)

If you're asking to try and read me, you could also ask her what she thinks I mean and that might be more informative, or if you're asking just to understand the concept better, P2 might not be the time for it. I am assuming I'll be on tonight, but child has woken up at 4:30 two mornings straight so...it will depend on whether I'm awake and have any functioning brain left.

Mmmm...I'm actually somewhat in agreement with mud that Ix's last few posts are ...making me question a bit even grading for Ix. So less certain today than I would have said 24 hours ago. But it's hard to forget what Ix did as town in Oakwood, so trying to logic read him is a fool's game, and his tone generally seems fine.

I'm still riding on (short on time, so off the top of my head):

a) I can't see voting against a claimed town PR with no CC in a game where that role 99.9% exists. That's nuts.
b) The weirdness is kinda fitting, and I have a really hard time seeing him faking that claim
c) the player who's pinging me as wolfiest is now on Ix's wagon. And I'll give you a hint - it's not SPF.

NAI: everything muddy is doing could be frustrated/desperate town (ZFR 2.0) or maf.

So, not a ten. But it doesn't really seem like much of a choice.

Thoughts on double lynch, but no time to get into it.


Well, at this point in P2, ....probably... not since it could be coming from town truly CCing or from maf CCing to save a buddy, who would have had 72 hours to prepare at this point, and town with ~24 hours to sort out which claim is true. That's not great.

And if town!PC exists and they claim and mud gets lynched anyway because it's perceived to be a weaker claim and/or a suspect claim, then it's lose-lose.

Two days ago, if there was a town CC almost certainly yes. The point of an investigative role is to catch maf and parity cop is a moderately weak investigator. There are almost certainly not two cops. The immediate response lends it more credibility, gives more time to sort it out, and finding one maf makes it easier for town to work together to find teammates. Probably.


Egads, no. No no no. With a standard cop in a different gamestate, maybe. PC in this gamestate? No.

I don't know what alignment you're proposing this from though, so maybe this is a conversation for post-game. But I 100% disagree.

You're essentially proposing that town should ignore a claimed town PR for a role that pretty definitely exists at kinda-MYLO on the POSSIBILITY that a cc exists.

lol

I'm not laughing at you...but...


(hopefully not a double-post, I had a hanging tag)

The only one I can come up with (if he's neutral) is that he's more scared of being NK / lynched by the scum team than he is of town lynching him. Hypothetically, he's neutral and he's seen all the town flips. So he knows that scum has a higher incentive to find and kill him than town. So he claims town vanilla to get scum to look away from him. I still have him leaning scum, but that's the best reason I came up with in my head for a neutral to claim town vanilla.

It absolutely has the feel of a scum slip. That's what I was pointing out - it's exactly what YOU did.

You get what you want and convince everyone I'm a liar, I get lynched, flip parity cop and you're so super absolutely postively most certainly town vanilla... that you're already talking about your vote tomorrow without a care in the world for your NK? And not only that, your sort of lay the groundwork for why you might start the day off on a vote for SPF?