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General discussionGOG Mafia #56 - The Witches of Salem(770 posts)(770 posts)
(770 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted November 22, 2018
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P1na: And then there's the cryptoclaiming ban, which I don't quite get but I didn't think I'd have to worry about.
Don't worry about that bit. If you don't know what a cryptoclaim is, you're not going to pull one off. ;-)
Posted November 22, 2018
Happy thanksgiving to our American players, happy thursday to everyone else!

I agree with Cristi's premise that scum!muddy or neutral!muddy could have shed a bunch of heat by claiming neutral. The fact they're resolutely claiming town does seem significant.

I see no reason for either of them to lie if neutral and thus one of them is almost certainly scum.
Posted November 22, 2018
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P1na: I'm not trying to defend muddysneakers per se, I have no strong opinions on him. I don't intend to vote for him at the moment, as I don't feel he's particularly scummy, but I'm not all that convinced he's town either. The only 2 I decided to put on the town side were Bler from the get go (due to his explanations, not that I have followed them that well) and ZFR (from his defense on me, I made a post about it last week, I could look it up if you wish). Those are the 2 I would speak for and defend, and one is dead, so that tells you how good I am at defending people. My votes have mostly gone towards someone who would be funny to vote for or just looking at how things are towards the end and voting for whoever was on the fence that I liked least. Not that I disliked Joe, of course, I just didn't like him at all.
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agentcarr16: This is... disturbing. Not necessarily scummy, but you have just admitted that all your votes have been jokes or "hop on a wagon" votes. That's not Town.
That is unfortunate, but it's not like I was hiding it. Flub being the exception, I have always voted that way openly. I'm not confortable enough on the game to come up with my own consistent theories, so I mostly wait to see the cases presented by others and choose based on that.

I am trying to build a case entirely on my own, but it's pretty hard. Hopefully I can present it tomorrow.

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P1na: Also confused. Claiming vanilla town is bad, so I shouldn't do it. But claiming to be mafia is certainly quite absurd, and claiming a power role is asking to be night killed, but you should do so before being night killed so you have to do it at some point. My only claim ever was being vanilla (I was a "vanilla" mafia goon that game, so I consider that a stretching of the truth TBH, but that's not the point here) and I haven't thought much about how to do so. And then there's the cryptoclaiming ban, which I don't quite get but I didn't think I'd have to worry about.
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bler144: I kinda feel like we need to stage an intervention. Are you ok?

If it makes you feel better, I've never really understood how cryptoclaiming would work either.
Yeah, I'm fine, I just have a major "problem" in the form of a few really nice games that I have recently aquired. It takes a lot of discipline to keep me away from them long enough to get my job done, so further spending time thinking about this mafia game is getting hard. Honestly, I wish I had this problem more often.
Posted November 22, 2018
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bler144: The way vanilla cop works she would have to be VT rather than PR/neutral, and ...I'd say they probably would have had to cop her N1, realistically. And why prioritize copping her but not killing her if they do know she's town? But that gets WIFOMy quick. But yes, if she's VT & they copped her, it's possible. If she's PR, then no, not really.
In my mind mafia know who isn't mafia already. They are just looking for PRs. If they investigate cristi and she turns up town that adds (in my mind at least, I'm sure you could give me a dissertation on why this is wrong. You won't because you don't have the time or inclination but you'll let me know that you could.) very little to their knowledge pool. They already knew that she was against them (in the general sense because yes there are corner cases where she is lyncher and her target is town). She's no longer a high priority in terms of PRs. Maybe she's still a big threat in terms of skill level and other players reading her as town but as far as PRs go she's just another name to mark off the list and they can move on to another player to try to find the PRs for NK.

As an aside does SPF ever sleep?
Posted November 22, 2018
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muddysneakers: As an aside does SPF ever sleep?
Not during the week, I make it all back up at the weekend.
Posted November 22, 2018
Suddenly the storm carries the ringing of the large church bell over. The Decision Bell. It is already dark outside, but if that's an effect of the storm or if the sun has already set, you don't know. All you know is that now the judge and his executioners will come soon to ask for your next decision.

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Decision Bell Vote Count:


Ixam 1 - muddy 540
muddy 3 - bler 520, flubb 526, Ixam 560
P1na 2 - agent 521, self
SirP 1 - self
cristi 1 - self

It takes 5 votes to lynch and muddysneakers is closest at L-2

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It is now Phase 2, which will last roughly 2 days. I.e. it will end some time on Saturday.
Posted November 22, 2018
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Lifthrasil: Suddenly the storm carries the ringing of the large church bell over. The Decision Bell. It is already dark outside, but if that's an effect of the storm or if the sun has already set, you don't know. All you know is that now the judge and his executioners will come soon to ask for your next decision.

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Decision Bell Vote Count:


Ixam 1 - muddy 540
muddy 3 - bler 520, flubb 526, Ixam 560
P1na 2 - agent 521, self
SirP 1 - self
cristi 1 - self

It takes 5 votes to lynch and muddysneakers is closest at L-2

---------------------------------------------------------------

It is now Phase 2, which will last roughly 2 days. I.e. it will end some time on Saturday.
No extension for all the poor Americans being forced to spend time with their families? :P
Posted November 22, 2018
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muddysneakers: I'm not fearmongering and if you're confident in your vote you have nothing to fear anyways. I'm just warning you that if you make a mistake here it could cost you the game.
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bler144: In #547 you listed flub as 4th most likely to be maf after Ix, Spf, and myself. This post reads like you're assuming he's town 20 posts later.

Plus the other thing.

Jeesh, this really needs to be broken up into two posts, but ...it doesn't appear anyone is online to bump, and I'm not inclined to wait 10 min for the timer.

Sorry all for the Thanksgiving WOT. On the bright side, there's plenty for everyone with still enough for leftovers!
I'm reading him as more town than the people before him. If we lynch Ixam today and SPF is nightkilled tonight then I'll reconsider my order. But right now it doesn't matter (to me) what the rest of my reads are because Ixam isn't a read its a fact. I don't think I can do much more than this. It's up to the rest of the players to determine who is lying here.
Posted November 22, 2018
Talk to me SPF. Why shouldn't I vote you tomorrow?
Posted November 22, 2018
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SirPrimalform: No extension for all the poor Americans being forced to spend time with their families? :P
No. No quarter or leniency. Some turkey-ghosts came by and told me to avenge them! ;-)

Also most of the Americans should be sober again by Saturday.
Posted November 22, 2018
Turkey!!!

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cristigale: Things that bother me: If scum!muddy, why not claim neutral? Why double-down on town and VT?
If scum!Ixam, why no counter claim? Especially when we are potentially at MYLO.
I agree with the bulk of this but some looks like worm cans best left for now.

On the points above, other players muddied the water (no pun intended).

agent did his whole "be ready to lynch the neutral!" bit (which I don't disagree with), which might dissuade the former. On the latter, both mud and then I thought someone else but can't find it quickly gummed things up by saying "It's a trap! Don't CC!" (which I do disagree with).

Coming from mud it was either mistaken town, or mafia gambit/ATE to buy time for a potential CC later. So functionally NAI.

If I were PC I would probably have waited to see everyone's reaction, but I would have CCed quickly, because if one exists, waiting even this long is quite problematic because it either looks like or can be spun as a false CC, b/c MYLO maybe.

So...while I can't predict how every player would handle that, at this point I'm assuming no CC.

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cristigale: BTW, I feel stronger about town!SPF. He more than anyone appears to be honestly trying to evaluate who is telling the truth in this matter.
I don't know that I agree with that, since it could just as easily be looking busy to justify not committing. But he's not getting lynched today 99.99% of the time, so it's moot until we have more info on one of the two.

FWIW, given the voting rules we do have the option to lynch both rather than forced to make an all-in decision either way. Hard to say how that impacts town/maf win conditions without knowing the setup, who maf kill, and how any neutrals would play that end game out. But it does at least put off the MYLO.

Neutrals will love it either way.

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muddysneakers: In my mind mafia know who isn't mafia already. They are just looking for PRs.
I think the data would suggest otherwise, but that's just my POV.

N1 they kill the guy who doesn't even know what roles are in the game at various points. Even accounting for WIFOM, he's not town PR in any world. N2 they kill HSL who, not long before dusk comes right out and says (and I'm quoting him verbatim here) "I'mma drop some truth bombs on y'all bitches to start D3! Yeeaaaa boooooi," which...even accounting for WIFOM, that's like 99.999% not town PR HSL.

Not knowing the setup, or what they know I don't know what they are doing, but hunting PRs....I'mma go with no. But that's just a guess, and maybe you're right. Maybe they thought HSL was bluffing, or about to share parity cop secrets. Maybe they copped him N1 and knew he was VT. We're just guessing, but I guess I'd challenge you to show any evidence that it looks like PR hunting.

/shrug

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muddysneakers: I'm reading him as more town than the people before him.
That's still a weird explanation, but whatevs.
Posted November 22, 2018
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muddysneakers: Talk to me SPF. Why shouldn't I vote you tomorrow?
I'm struck by your optimism. :P

More seriously, if you tell me why you'd vote for me tomorrow then maybe I could give a useful answer.

But let's for a moment assume you are definitely town and therefore Ixam is scum. I'm one of the few people considering that possibility, if I was scum with Ixam what would be my motivation? Given the number of people readily accepting his claim, I would hardly be under pressure to throw him under the bus.
Fast forward to a future where you're alive tomorrow, we lynched Ixam and he flipped scum. What would be your reasoning for voting me at that point in time?

To counter, tell me why I shouldn't vote for you right now? Ixam telling the truth seems the simplest explanation, can you think of a logical or factual reason that makes it untrue?
Posted November 22, 2018
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bler144: FWIW, given the voting rules we do have the option to lynch both rather than forced to make an all-in decision either way. Hard to say how that impacts town/maf win conditions without knowing the setup, who maf kill, and how any neutrals would play that end game out. But it does at least put off the MYLO.
I thought of this too since one of the two of them has got to be scum, but as I was typing it up two bugs occurred to me:

1. Assuming we're at MYLO and scum are 3/8 of the players, lynching both of them plus a night kill would leave us with 2/5 scum players, which is LYLO.

2. It would be too easy for the scum players to vote hop and put the mislynch in the lead. It would probably expose them, but by that point they might have won.

Please point out any errors in my logic if you see them, but for now I've concluded it's probably a bad idea.
Posted November 22, 2018
Just got caught up and I don't see anything in particular that I need to address. I do like P1na for another Scum, but muddysneakers has emphatically stated that he's not neutral...

I'm actually tempted to push for a double lynch of muddysneakers and Ixamyakxim because the danger of MYLO is... real? At least, it's a reasonable possibility. Double lynch would lessen that danger, since I can't imagine a world where Ixamyakxim and muddysneakers are on the same team (Actually, not true. Possibly both neutral, but that would still probably be a good lynch for Town).

With that in mind, I'm going to

Vote Ixamyakxim.

I am out of town for the weekend and I have no idea if I will have internet access.

If others decide that double lynch isn't good, it shouldn't be hard to work around my vote. If others think double lynch is good, I'm way ahead of you. My vote speaks for itself.

Happy Thanksgiving, USAers!
Posted November 22, 2018
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muddysneakers: Talk to me SPF. Why shouldn't I vote you tomorrow?
LOL because you KNOW you're not getting NKed right? I go back and forth back and forth every time I read you because I don't know if you're scum or not (neutral). I might finally be firmly scum on you.

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agentcarr16: (Actually, not true. Possibly both neutral, but that would still probably be a good lynch for Town).

With that in mind, I'm going to

Vote Ixamyakxim.
It's not a terrible idea. I'm "basically" town vanilla at this point. In the unlikely event I even survive tonight my read is probably going to be "different."

I *could* get lucky and get a "same" and land on muddy's fellow scum / other neutral? but more likely than not all I'm going to learn is that the player I scan is either town... or scum. So nothing. I guess longer term I can *maybe* figure something out, but with 3 groups still in play I'm going to be getting a lot of not very helpful stuff.

And that's the BEST case, where I even last. I doubt I make it beyond tonight. I'll let people smarter than me figure out if we can afford to lynch a townie today but I'd be okay with this above. I guess it saves scum a NK but if we can soak a loss so be it.

I should be on later tonight (have a break in cooking) but if not Happy Thanksgiving!
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #56 - The Witches of Salem(770 posts)(770 posts)
(770 posts)