Right. So he's unlynchable. But we should not trust him and presumably be open to lynching him.

Got it.

1. Hmmm... I can't think of too many. cristi's back-up cop. Trent's Seraphim bit. Both were roles that couldn't really be verified independently. We (I say we when i was only observing) lynched a doctor once on D2 when yogs convinced town-doctor-wyrm to hammer himself. Good times.

I've seen some fire drills on MU knock out PRs - usually unclaimed. At least in the modern era on GoG we're so used to bizarre setups and roles, that we tend to shy off of lynching claimed PRs. Thus how somebody could claim "Town roleblocker" day 1, and skate on that. Not that anyone would, mind you ;)

As for the latter part, it's possible, but looking at the whom it's total WIFOM bait. Esp with HSL who was on quite a few somebodies as I recall. It got me thinking more about the setup than any individual player.


2. Well, we already had this discussion D1, and she agreed that yes, she has in the past (Oakwood) and would still in the present play towards town wincon if neutral.

But you can throw that out anyway, because here it would make fairly strong sense for any neutral in her shoes to claim. You get a mafia lynched, which buys you reasonable immunity from town, and mafia probably have more important things to do than get revenge on a neutral. If anything in her case it probably would lower her NK profile. So it would absolutely be the right play imo.


Hopefully the road doesn't look like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_akwHYMdbsM

Safe travels!


I see. ;)

Exactly this Primal. I was gambling. I didn't care so much about NK / lynch results. I 1) wanted to know where cristi stood and I was 2) hoping I'd get same same same (a town block) or same same different (scum, most likely or in a dumb, not at all likely random turn of events the scum or neutral team - but if I got this I was going to assume I had two town - which I did until ZFR started to talk about a double lynch).

What I totally didn't want was something "same" different different because that's garbage - that gives me nothing without a lynch or night kill. And even then it isn't much to work with until late game, when I might as well be dead. Thankfully I didn't get this (though obviously it was mitigated by ZFRs lynch yesterday).

So question time:

Muddy did you not softclaim neutral with your earlier chatter? I guess more directly - are you not claiming neutral?

I did not claim neutral that is an assumption others have made.

Why does Ixam care where cristi stands N0 before the game even starts? Why cristi and not say myself who has 0 history playing with any of you before? That seems like a better investigative target to me N0. The whole story is bogus.

Also same same same, same same different, and same different different.

You only could have investigated 3 people so you'd only have 2 results not 3.

Town wake up and lynch this liar.

Ok. I mean, I only sort of get it, but ok ;)

Well, a) cristi noted very briefly that she's traveling and will post later, so I'm not sure where you're getting this assumption about what she would or would not be doing. That's just strange.

Also, b) It's amusing she's either lock town, or scum. ;) You're sure she's not neutral, then?

Just as a point of fact, the reality is we haven't voted ENOUGH this game as town. Neutrals, sure, they have an incentive not to rock anyone's boat if they don't have to.

1-2 votes on you is NAI.

The long and short is a claimed PR claimed against you - even if there are some questions about that claim, you're pretty much always going to get votes, just as a prompt to take the questions seriously and to answer in a way that helps clarify the picture from your side.

It doesn't mean you're getting lynched or not lynched either way. It's just pressure.

For a while we tried doing this "declare pressure!" thing without voting and it didn't work at all because everyone knew it could just be ignored.

In a normal game you're going to get votes to demonstrate intent, and create pressure, but they don't really tell you why someone is pushing. If you're town, town needs to sort you as much/more than maf need to mislynch you.

The first 1-2 votes don't matter until it's really into end-game. You're still at L-3. If you're town, just focus on the task at hand.

We do still have "FoS" but no one really bothers with that anymore either. Questions are good, but votes are what count. So, yeah, you gotta vote. We haven't done enough of that this game.

Aaaaaaahh! No! VT is always Vanilla Town. We have vanilla town in nearly every game, and vengeful almost never. I know it's annoying, but you'll just have to type it out because VT is already taken.

You're like the guy who responded to news of his grandmother's death with "LOL!" because he was sure it meant Lots of Love.

It...does not. You're just going to confuse people.

Having being maf with him before, I'm curious what flub/cristi think about the ploy notion.

I'm a bit skeptical, but perhaps that's my jerky side.

I guess my question would be, if maf were going to craft a ploy in night chat to pull out the PC, why don't they pick a cleaner claim rather than one that invites potentially 2 (or 3, depending perhaps on what cristi has to say) people calling bullshit?

I kinda have to go with this has to be real until clearly otherwise, because I'm not sure how it could not be.


#538 - How are you more convinced cristi is town given you seem to be reading into something she wasn't even present to say or not say as the determinant just a few posts earlier? What's that based on?

"Convenient" is cropping up a lot this game. But well, it's a mostly open setup.

Claiming, maybe yes/no, but yes, being a PR in this setup is worth something. He's still getting questions, so I think you're overstating the state of things a bit, and cristi hasn't weighed in at all, which is kinda important given her place in the claim.

If she says it ain't true, the votes - including mine - are going quickly the other way.

Not speaking to this specific situation, but town PR often chooses to play a little scummier. Your claim generally will spare you from the lynch unless you royally ____ the ____. And if mafia think they can mislynch you because of your eccentricities, you're much less likely to get NKed, thus keeping your role in play longer. It can be a smart strategy if you can do it well.

I'd say flub does a lot of this, whereas cristi tends to be a bit more even keeled.

Plus, this is Ix. No offense to him. A lot of what you've described as scummy is really just a bit random - it's not "wolfy". And that is his style. Does it make perfect sense that he saw cristi-ZFR as same and put townPR!himself at risk to save even someone he thought probably was townie?

From anyone else, no. As cop it would be stupid to risk getting yourself lynched or even pushed to claim on that. From Ix...eh. I kinda buy it.

You mentioned flub's change in playstyle D2 - my perception was that when he realized other players besides me were townreading him, he changed up to be less townie on purpose, and if I recall he even said as much. My assumption as to why he was doing all of his D2 was apparently wrong, but yeah.

As your play improves you can intentionally start playing with the signals you put off as town depending on your role and your perception of its value in the setup. Though i don't think that's what Ix is doing.

So none of this, necessarily speaks to this particular situation, just food for thought.



Unless I missed it, I don't see him saying those are the results he has - I see him fairly clearly in #542 saying he wanted to avoid that sort of result. I confess I don't fully grasp how he was trying to make that happen, but you screaming that he's lying on what seems to be a misrep doesn't really persuade me to your cause here.


I get the theory - I don't think I'm following you in practice. What did this line of thought prompt you to do?

Lol, that's why I make every effort to travel Tuesday. Wednesday the roads often do look like that!

Catching up....

glad you made it safe!

I'm hitting my curfew and signing off, but looking forward to seeing what you've got manana. Things certainly got lively ;)

LOL of course I only have two results but when having 3 people in question it's just easier (and less confusing) to say same same different to show that crist and ZFR were the same, you're different. "I got same different" isn't as clear. "I was afriad I'd get different different" isn't as clear when describing what I hoped I wouldn't get on a three way investigation.

You're desperate and you're not claiming neutral. I'm happy to be back on you.

Lynch Muddy

Let's get this out there first - I am not counter claiming Ixam. Barring a counter claim, his claim fits my POV.

@Ixam - if I missed this, please point me to it, would you state who you picked night by night and why?

@muddy - Are you a neutral?

Uberpost, hope I've not screwed up the formatting.

1. The vast majority of my experience dates from the beginning of the GOG mafia community. I think I played in most of the games between #1 and #20 so that could account for our differing experiences. Anyway, I still personally feel that not having lost any PR to NK or mislynch is pretty lucky, especially since neither of the lynches claimed (Joe unable to and ZFR refusing to).
Do you see anything suspicious about how Ixam's wagon evaporated on D2? It could just be down to ZFR suddenly drawing all the attention in the room. I guess that's more WIFOM.

2. That's... reassuring to know I guess? So what you're saying is, you think if Ix was lying and Cristi was town, she'd stand up and say "Ix is lying!"? Looking at the OP it looks like there's a possibility of a neutral survivor/lyncher. Do you think what you said would still apply if she were a lyncher?

Ok, so cristi N0, ZFR N1 and muddy N2. What attracted your attention to muddy last night?
Also can you answer the other questions from the post you replied to? :P

As the roles are handed out randomly, on N0 there is very little basis upon which to choose one target. However, picking someone familiar that you think you can read well would probably help because it'll allow you to decode the following results.

As for the results... you're right there should be only two results from 3 investigations so far. The claimed targets should only have yielded the results Same (on N1, as in ZFR is the same as Cristi) and then Different (on N2 as in Muddy is different from ZFR).

Just to make sure I'm understanding correctly, the three possible people calling bullshit would be:
1. Real parity cop CCing
2. "The accused" (Muddy)
3. "The innocent" (Cristi, if not actually town)

If the aim is to draw out and eliminate the cop then I'm not sure the other people calling bullshit are too big a risk. Muddy is always going to object whether he is scum or wrongly accused town. With cristi she may be town and have no reason to be suspicious, she may be neutral taking the chance to pass as town particularly if a lyncher or she may be another member of the scum team. We have no way of knowing other than her normal reads (I had her as pretty town by this point).

This all sounds insane, but I have the same fridge horror as I did in the last game and we all know what happened when I wrote that off too soon. So I feel like I need to at least follow all the possibilities.

1. The timing definitely. Ixam was catching heat from some strange behaviour. I'm waiting to see if he has any better breadcrumbs that were already being looked at as suspicious. I asked once but he seems to have missed the question (while replying to another question in the same post).

2. Occam's razor sliced us up good in the last game so I'm going to entertain the crazy possibilities for a bit longer. Ix's claim needs full scrutiny.

3. Are you referring to my discussion with bler as to whether we're "lucky" or underpowered?

Oh yes, and VT is definitely vanilla town(ie). May I suggest VfT for Vengeful Townie?

It got a little buried in my uberpost, but these are the questions I was looking for a reply to:

Probably because I'm spending less time on this since I've spent less time on the game as of late (last week for work, this week for games) I'm having a really hard time following things. Ixam is claiming to be the cop, muddy is calling him a liar. It's gotten me somewhat confused.

Now, I can understand why mafia would lie about being a cop: you want to give yourself enough authority to fool others into lynching a townie, a trick you'd only be able to do once. Or lead them to kill a fellow mafia and then ride that trust boost till the end of the game, which wouldn't work with the real cop out there (as roles are revealed on death, we know the cop is still alive).

I can somewhat understand why a vanilla townie would want to lie about being the cop, you want to draw the night kill to yourself and take one for the team, leaving the cop safe and sound. Still, at the same time you're throwing your reads as if they were fact, which is not helping others to come to the correct conclusion IMO. Am I missing something there?

As for ixam actually being the cop and having claimed truthfully... I don't quite grasp that either. Sure, if you're about to get lynched that's one thing, but then shouldn't he have claimed yesterday when he was so close to being lynched? I didn't vote for him basically because lulz, but he could have been gone if I did. Unless, with 4 townies gone, we're so close that another myslinch will make town lose the game, so you need to come out and make your reads public? But we're still 8 people, I don't think that's the case just yet. Night kill paranoia?

Also confused. Claiming vanilla town is bad, so I shouldn't do it. But claiming to be mafia is certainly quite absurd, and claiming a power role is asking to be night killed, but you should do so before being night killed so you have to do it at some point. My only claim ever was being vanilla (I was a "vanilla" mafia goon that game, so I consider that a stretching of the truth TBH, but that's not the point here) and I haven't thought much about how to do so. And then there's the cryptoclaiming ban, which I don't quite get but I didn't think I'd have to worry about.

I don't know, I'm off my game, but the feeling I'm getting is that ixam is lying, not sure why. Perhaps my guilt about not having voted for him and leaving my vote on HSL, but I'm going to move him towards the mafia side in my head. Muddy is calling him out on it, so he goes towards town. SPF's has expressed concerns too, but they feel... off, somehow. Tailored for him to explain things out? Giving him rope to hang himself on? Is that bad?

Ah shit, I really don't feel like thinking hard. I'll go grab a bite.

My "breadcrumbs" (and it was kind of obtuse) was basically when I was saying "ZFR" has hinted at a power role and "ZFR" has maybe suggested he's a big deal... while I was sort of telling everyone there's no way I was voting ZFR. I didstart to doubt myself when he was asking for a double lynch (thinking maybe I got stupid lucky and hit two same scum) but still thought that highly unlikely enough that I wasn't going to vote someone I was almost positive I had confirmed.


You did miss it (though I did also copy / paste where muddy guessed it so it was in a quote) - it was YOU - ZFR - MUDDY .

I was hoping for an early same - same match to confirm town and I wanted to get a strong player that was likely to stick around. Honestly it was a tossup between you and flubb being my "anchor." ZFR was someone I hadn't played with much, if at all (thanks cristi you're totally blowing up my parity cop / cop meta here LOL). He was fairly active and I didn't have a scummy read on him - I think my first vote of the game was on a wagon with him largely because nothing super glaring or scummy had jumped out (as much as it can that early in game).

Muddy was a pick'em. I had my confirmed town (I basically had confirmed the day before when I got the same same I had been hoping for, and lynching ZFR obviously sealed the deal). I could either try and lock down another town player, I could hit someone that had been lurking hardcore (HSL, P1na, agent) or I could go with muddy. Muddy had may some "mistakes" and then sort of played it off as being new. But basically taken a free pass. It made me nervous.

I like VenT.

Does this mean you will also view cristigale and ZFR as scum?? You do remember ZFR was mod confirmed as town upon his lynch right??

This is a poor defense for muddysneakers.