I hadn't considered the 3 scum game. I still am almost a bit worried that maybe this line was a "scum" (in the nonneutral sense) slip:

but I think for now

Unvote muddy

Because damnit you're right.

1. Well, if we were lucky they would have killed neutral instead of VT. If we were extraordinarily lucky they would have offed themselves.

This is weird statement you make.

2. Well, in retrospect it seems pretty clear that he was a bit peeved given his flip combined with his response to HSL. I didn't expect him to flip town given ...well, most of D2, but in fairness to him, if I were town and people were lining up to not just vote me but tell me I was anti-town, I probably wouldn't feel super gracious either.

3. What makes that a good question?

Good point.

It feels like so long ago since we last ran someone out of town for opening the day with a LAMIST post. I can't remember when it was, but I feel like it turned out well and we definitely hit maf or something.


Still wandering, as well?

Uhhhh...what now?

It's weird.

Is it wolfy? Well, IDK. Normally I'd say no, since it's based on a premise pretty much no one else is likely to buy. But I don't think I've ever understood him.

That said, I recall maf!Ix having more of an edge and this just feels...

Well, that depends. The point several of us were making is that a double wagon last in phase 2 is easily manipulated.

In theory you could plan a double wagon in phase 1 that would be much harder to manipulate. But you'd need a clear motive for that particular double wagon that everyone bought into, and you'd need to force both lynchees somehow to be locked onto the other so that they couldn't pile on late to swing it.

So practically I'm not holding a lot of hope we could pull it off even if we somehow settled on two.

He did say "possibly." As for the rest...

Sigh. If that's all an act...it's cleverly done.

If you assume 3 mafia, it's certainly not great. Beats lynching VT or PC though.

If there are 2 mafia and mult neutral, it has decent value. Though mulling over the voting and the roles (always dangerous, certainly) I tend to agree 3 mafia is more likely than 2.

Walk me through this.

Unless I'm misconstruing, you said 3v3 was "possible" (#485) but not given. #495 seems to suggest you do think it a given with the "full stop," coming after SPF's comment.

Forget everyone else - are you assuming 3 mafia, yes/no/how likely, and if so, based on what exactly?

If you can see this please bump.

No.

j/k ;)

If you assume 3 mafia, 3v3 start of D4 is game over unless mafia accidentally lynch VT. At that point it would at best be 1/3 for them to do that assuming they don't already know who it is. Even then at best town can hope for a tie. D4 all 3 mafia sit on one townie and all townies sit on one mafia. Double lynch one mafia and VT and VT kills another mafia. Then you're 1v2 going into NK and 1v1 going into D5 which ends in a tie. Or maybe no winners. If we miss this, the game pretty much ends today.

All of the above assuming 3 mafia. 2 mafia then its still open for another day.

This was supposed to post 30 minutes ago but never did. If mafia didn't know this and I just handed them the game I'll take the blame but I'm going to assume they could have figured this out on their own.

Regarding 2 vs 3 mafia members I have no indication. It is merely a guess based on numbers and 0 neutral flips and worst case scenario speculation.

I think I accidentally deleted a 'quote' bracket so it never posted.

Was just sitting waiting for a reply- didn't see you'd gone to a new page.

Yes, the what-ifs are certainly something to consider, as is worst-case. You just seemed a bit sure there for a newbie.


For what it's worth, i can only see 3 possible variants of this setup/roles being balanced with 12 players. The first and third involve 3 maf, the 2nd would have 2 though.


In terms of D3, not actually directed at you, but I'm guessing Lift intends to stay on the same schedule despite the U.S. holiday? I think it doesn't affect me too much - I should still be on in the eves, daytimes probably not due to family stuff. Sat dicey again.

Still waiting for cristi and P1na to show?

Have any reads to share?

Make of it what you will. Thru EOD D2 voting not counting self votes unless I missed something.


Agent-voted for 4 town
Ixam-voted for 2 town
Muddy-voted for 2 town, 2 unknown, +1 RVS
Flubb-voted for 1 town, 1 unknown
P1na-voted for 2 town, + 1 town RVS
SPF-voted for 3 town, 1 unknown, + 1 RVS
Bler-voted for 3 town, +1 unknown sorta RVS
Cristi-voted for 1 town, +3 unknown, +1 RVS

I think I may have convinced myself cristi is town. And if you make two assumptions 1. not all mafia were on Joe EOD D1 and 2. I am town then that leaves SPF as the last player who didn't vote Joe. All of which I understand could be poor reasoning. But its where I'm leaning for toDay. Will probably vote SPF tomorrow assuming the rest of the players don't think this is completely ludicrous.

Some.

Was waiting for the stragglers to appear first given the gamestate.
Not many town reads, but given the numbers that's probably on point.

Took me a bit to work out what you meant.

D1: not on Joe EOD and alive: cristi (agent), SPF/mud (ZFR).
dead: scene (agent) and Joe/HSL (P1na)


It's not ludicrous, assuming you are town. Though I'm not sure I'd take it as a given. Reasonably probable if 3 maf, sure. And one vote, by itself, isn't a lynch, so vote as you see fit.

Based on what have you think you may have convinced yourself cristi is town? ;)

Checking in. Time to re-evaluate my reads.

@Ixam - you baffle me. Could you explain why you thought ZFR was bread crumbing a PR? And why you drew attention to it in #296?

In terms of the holidays, I am traveling tomorrow - should be able to check in either before or after. Friday is a crazy combo of Thanksgiving/Christmas/Birthday all rolled into one...that day may be tight. I probably won't be available for the actual EOD of Saturday (assuming it's Saturday and roughly the same time.) The other days are mostly wide open.

@muddy - I assume you are reading me town based on the vote history you posted?

@agent - any opening thoughts for the day?

What do you think of the last four underlined Votes on the ZFR wagon??

Well, the new day has dawned. Not doing great. May you rest in peace, HSL: I wanted you dead, but not like that.

I probably should answer his question from "last night" first, about the voting. I felt it was one big mess and I didn't want to get into it. I felt even if I switched my vote ZFR would counter switch right away (which he kinda did, actually, while I was posting). Keeping track of the vote numbers constantly changing and making an educated guess felt like too much work and so I decided to just leave it where it was and let the people invested on the vote switching figure it out.

Honestly, I would have voted for ZFR right then and there for being annoying and messing with my relaxed plan, but I had just decided to classify him as town right there with Bler, so yeah, I wasn't going to vote for him. I think I could have switched to ixam or SPF at tha moment, and didn't. Now I feel guilty for that, I'll check both their post history and see if I can make my mind about them.

And so, I won't vote for flub right away this time. Consistency is good, but voting for him at the beginning didn't help, and he's even teasing me about it (yes, I know that's exactly why he asks why he is still alive). But I can't keep doing the same thing over and over.