Why exactly are you voting flubbucket?



Whereas fact is there are none?



What do you make of his explanation in post #371 as to what his

was all about?

Same question to cristigale.



Could you answer bler144's questions from posts #359 and #380? Namely:

and

Not sure if he's still interested in a reply, but I am.



Am I to conclude that there's no-one you think is most likely scum, or at least scummy?


So, "leaning town", "stronger Town vibes", "inclined to feel he's Town" translate as you're sure they're Town?


Please elaborate on why and how flipping either of your top picks gives the most information, what sort of information that'd be, and why it doesn't apply to the other three you're uncertain about.

1) At the moment I don't see it leeeeading me anywhere.

2) I wrote why I voted Joe. If my #383 is right then obviously it's different from my own action and thinking.

I dunno really, even if it was ZFR+Ix it feels like moving too fast. I'd rather lynch one and use the flip to improve reads on the other.

Well, those I think most likely to be scum are the ones that are rated 4 on my list. I don't find any of them particularly scummy, however.

No, that was bad phrasing on my part. I've got five players who I feel less strongly are Town. I've got five players that I believe are Town. By process of elimination, the other five I'm less inclined to think are Town.

Ixamyakxim and P1na haven't contributed very much to the discussion, though P1na has picked it up a little recently. Lynching them would give their flip, but very little in way of learning from hindsight, I feel.

I feel cristigale is better alive than dead as Town (heh).

What I mean is that she hasn't contributed as much as some others, so her flipping doesn't allow as much hindsight reading as you or ZFR. But what she will bring to the table is more than what Ixamyakxim and P1na are likely to in the future. She's more value alive than dead, where as Ixamyakxim and P1na give very little information alive or dead.

You and ZFR have contributed enough that hindsight reading could be very strong. At the same time, your content is such that it's hard to analyze without the advantage of hindsight reading. So I think we're likely to get the most information out of lynching one of you two.

Alternatively, LAL is an option, which would have me put my vote on Ixamyakxim, but I'd prefer lynching for information.

Good to know.

Please lay out in detail what content I've contributed that hindsight reading could be very strong, and how you read it assuming I'm Town, Neutral or mafia.

You tryin' to get me killed??

Fact is....an elephant crossed with a rhinoceros.

And since the Day ends tomorrow, am I to assume that that "sometime later" was never meant as "sometime later during D2", or is that still coming?



Sounds yummy, I'll have two.

I'd love to. Won't be today (note the lowercase), I'm drowning in school work for the rest of the day. I'll try tomorrow morning.

It was actually mean as "sometime later during Day 2." Then school got a little crazy. Again, I'll try tomorrow morning.


Apologies alll, but I'm gone for the next 18 hours or so.

I think it depends on why you think scene was the nightkill. I have my suspicions. Would like to hear your thoughts.

Bler, I started re-reading your conflict with scene as the other player who voted both scene and Joe. Why do you think scene was nightkilled?


Agent, in 388 you said:

bler144: 5

Since scene flipped Town, I'm inclined to feel he's Town.

Other than scene surviving the night is there a result that makes you think bler isn't town?


ZFR, I think you voiced similar thoughts on bler after scene flipped but can't find the post now. Other than scene surviving the night is there a result that makes you think bler isn't town?


Multiple players have suggested that scum bler would try to manipulate scene. What do you mean by that?


Can anyone comment on scum bler's play? Is it possible that bler legitimately wanted to sub out but is still scum? And after deciding to NK scene he made up the part about the N1 conversation with Lift? Honor among thieves and all. Or is this something that scum bler would never do?

Bler, apologies, not trying to stir up old conflicts just want to get a better picture of this.

My line of inquiry isn't really about P1na or his vote at all, it's about you I'm in the same ballpark as cristi on the P1na read so I find your argument charming but still a bit curious.

As a technical matter, for one, while it's unlikely, you and P1na could be W/W. That would be a maf! reason to vote Joe. Can't hurt. Switching to Joe locks that lynch in. Town!you might know that, but I don't. So it has to be at least considered.

There's also the reality that it's WIFOM. "Why would mafia do X" is sometimes the reason for mafia to do X even if it's risky. Yes, you can and sometimes should judge likelihood, but that's not an absolute.

Or perhaps it's as simple as Maf!P1na shows up and feels a need to do something, and going to Joe in that moment feels more comfortable than defending standing pat (as cristi did and someone poked her for it IIRC) which might look more suspicious. The jokey aggression could be a way to blow off the tension.

Not just P1na but maf may still not have a sense of how to play around the issue of non-maj lynches.

But again, I'm really asking the question to understand your read vis-a-vis you.

lol

This is what's bothering me with him. Perhaps I'm being unfair, but this P1na bit feels like the first real effort to solve (town-reading flub is less about flub than reinforcing his suspicion/tunneling/whatever on SPF). So it feels out of place.

It also has had the effect of buddying off P1na's vote. Which strikes me as possibly the intent.
ZFR's take that P1na's vote "why would mafia do that - must be town" in 320 brings P1na's response in #362 " if he were mafia, he would know I'm not, so he would have no real reason to defend me so".

So is that solving, or is it just more self-defense under a patina of solving?

I'm not 100% sure I quite grok the question - are you asking how I read it, or asking me to guess what his intent was? If the former, I mean...I still think it fits with the buddy theory. I'm too lazy to fact-check, but I don't think ZFR had more than 2 votes, and then 2-3 people buzzing around, but it wasn't like he was on the verge of being forced to claim.

If they aren't w/w together it's probably about the least weird answer he could provide.

I mean, it's dangerous assuming too much with Ix, but really, a wolf surveys the field, sees someone he thinks claimed PR and as his first post D2 without thinking it through rushes in and says "No, not that one!"? I dunno.

What do you make of it?


Quite.

Ok agent's questioning of ZFR and SPF about pushing two lynches toDay is a little alarming. However since no one else is really focusing on him I'll have to look elsewhere toDay.

Similar to agent's post 350 operating under the assumption that not all scum got on Joe's wagon I looked at the players who didn't. scene, joe, HSL, SPF, cristi, and myself. Scene and Joe are clearly town and to me anyways so am I. Setting aside cristi because most people are town reading her I reread HSL and SPF. I didn't get much from HSL but SPF seemed like he was trying to force some action with ZFR over both Days and when ZFR reacted the way he did SPF jumped on it. Its not much but hopefully it will give us some more information.


Vote SPF


Unlikely to be around for EOD tomorrow unless it is pretty late.

mmm....I dwelled on this so it wasn't just kneejerk that you're blowing me off, but this merits a frownie face. To me it seems you're dismissing any analysis of the REASON he gives for voting and just assume that the vote stands on its own, mechanically. 1+1 = town!!!!

That's not so good.

Honestly, that makes me a lot less inclined to read your read as genuine and more like either faux-solving and/or buddying.


I *mostly* agree here, though it might have been useful if it had happened earlier in the day for various reasons - impact of potential claims (good or bad) changing the table.

Regardless of how they flip?

Holy shit - that's an amazing strategy! We should try that.

Errrrr...ZFR I can buy. He was the main secondary D1 wagon. He's been in the middle of a lot.

With HSL is his vast array of votes and players who've voted him your starting point for analysis? If HSL flips town, what do you think agent's motivation for voting him was?


I think the fact that you didn't get any bites the first time you asked (#288) should probably be a strong hint. Given that it's probably not you vs. 9 maf, the majority of those not answering are town.

But I'll give you some newbie grace:

The short version is that it's total WIFOM. If I spent 20 minutes on it I could probably give you 15 possible reasons, several of which will directly contradict each other (Mafia love X about the gamestate and NK scene to lock in a perceived advantage vs. maf feel vulnerable and hate the gamestate and NK on scene creates chaos or exposes someone else. Mafia did it because of bler or mafia want you to think it's because of bler. Maybe the maf team is HSL/cristi/flub and they need to delay killing off the top because it will make people wonder why they're all still conveniently alive on D3 or D4. etc.)

All those are possible, but what do you do with it? And the answer is nothing. At least for now. Read what's happening on the table.

I do have a preferred theory, but there's not really any benefit to going down this line at least at this point. For what it's worth, most of the time I've guessed in the past I've been wrong. As I think someone mentioned, you probably won't really know until you read mafchat post-game.

So it's very unlikely to help you make better decisions in the now.

Assuming you're town, the other problem is that not only do you gain nothing by guessing since it's not really based on clear evidence, but you potentially feed mafia the angle to manipulate you or other players later in the game with other kills. If 4-5 players start saying "it looks like their strategy is X!" and you're way off, it might be convenient for them to play into that theory anyway. For example, if cristi or I die N2, you have both NKs being players who voted agent D1. Is that a maf!agent strategy? Or is that maf enjoying the shade cast on town!/neutral!agent even though that may have nothing to do with their line of thought and it was convenient to kill x+y for completely different reasons?

I mean, I would suggest re-reading the post you are quoting, particularly the first line, but obviously I can't make you.

Caught up.


****
After ZFR's response, he's my strongest case. The p1na bit feels out of flow from his other activity, and like an attempt to peel off a potential (and former) voter.

I also really dislike both his D1 and D2 entrances as seeming staged. Just like P1na is amazing if he faked that tone two openers in a row, two staged openers is a big concern. ZFR flip also gives more info on D1 action.

And other than ZFR/IX it gets dicier from there, and I don't see how maf!Ix if it's not maf!ZFR.

Two other maybes, but they feel like they'd be shooting randomly.

Vote stays on ZFR and it's what I would advocate at this point as the best play.

I will be at least passing through in the a.m. at least to assess revote in case of claim or other activity. After that it will depend on when night falls.

I intentionally did not share specifically why I think scene was killed. I have a guess, it may be wrong. I don't intend to share it during the game. Bler did a good job of explaining the pitfalls of NK analysis.

I think it's fine to take a post like the one you quoted and use it as one piece of supporting evidence for a read. I would treat it as a +1 and not a primary factor on why I read someone as scum or town. "I don't think player X would kill player Y" may have some merit at times. However, the mafia team typically comes to a consensus on who to kill. What the team collectively decides may trump what is in the best interest of a specific member.