I agree that scum benefits from pushing two town lynches. However, would they have the opportunity on D1 to plan and try to carry that out? I had not thought about it until you mentioned it. If scum did not have a chat N0, they would not be able to talk with one another until N1. I'm not sure I'd be cognizant of it on D1 as scum - with this being new.

The other issue is finding a way to vote for you that feels natural. That's why I asked about agent. It looks scummy to vote you if they had not first laid some ground work or saw a good opening.

I don't find it a convincing reason to give either player town points.

See - there you go! Asking questions to try and determine action and motive ;)

In re-reading I noticed you did ask a lot of questions, but the majority of them were roughly in the rhetorical/accusatory/mechanical bags. I was curious if you'd try to spin it, or would own it. So, imo, this was a good response.

Well, then there you have it. You're saying now the real issue isn't his expression of self-preservation, per se, but the way it was expressed. I'm glad we had this therapy session together to really talk it through as a family. ;)

Are you talking D2 and...proposing maf!SPF + maf!P1na? I don't follow how you got here.


1.1) Uhhh...the only lurkers would be you and Joe. And Joe's pretty dead. Also town. And you know the setup is mostly open and posted in the OP, right?

2. Well, you could freak out and accuse them of witchery. Or you could like, ask questions to try and clarify. Or just comment and stuff.

It doesn't always work, but it never hurts to try, right?


lol

Game off a sec -

First off, and I think you mean well, but that underlined part you just need to discount. Like being on a jury and being asked to disregard a prior statement, I know you can't just snap fingers and completely forget, but I'D be upset if you were town reading me for asking for a sub.

What I did was bad for the game. It just was. I shouldn't be cleared or rewarded for it.

The converse situation would be a player who slips early D1, gets heat, and asks for a sub. In #53 you saw mafia do that, and yes, Lift gained a bit of an advantage from that grace, but we've also seen town cops do it, VT do it IIRC. Don't assign value to why someone feels they need to step away from the game.

Many MU games have the requirement that ALL sub discussion happen entirely out of thread between player and mod. Requests for subs, speculating on why someone subbed, or in some cases begging for other players to be subbed out for lurking generally draws mod sanction. There, they set rules precisely so that the game lives within the thread to the greatest extent possible, at least to avoid the slippery slope.

We don't do any of those things because we take ourselves less seriously here and play as friends, but that cuts both ways.We play for fun -- but RL, or lack of time, or bad feelings happen for any number of reasons, and trying to assign in-game alignment to them just fucks things up and even if it's not abuse the first time it happens...

Not the same, but similar in concept to the discussion after last game about faking RL explanations to get away with lurking. The sub mechanic is for emergencies, not a tool for play.

The whole thing was bad, and I'm not happy it happened, but I'd be even less happy if you or anyone else gave me any sort of pass for it.

Does that make sense?

-on-

During dinner I was mulling over your post. The general idea of scum trying to tie the votes D1 is probably more likely than I gave it credit.

However, before I had a chance to get back to the game, I was reminded of Joe'a suggestion to purposefully tie the vote on two players. Both agent and P1na were against it. It would look suspicious for either of them to vote you in that scenario unless they provided a solid reason.

So, my view is you always risk missing the larger picture - I think esp. in this game with no maj requirement - if you don't look at the spread and just focus on the main wagon.

agent 2 - cristi (65), town (233)
ZFR 2 - SirP (122), muddy (160)
town 6 - flubb (129), Ixam (156), bler (165), agent (178), ZFR (204), P1na (223)
P1na 2 - HSL (24), town (149)

If you are town!ZFR assuming town!P1na...what's left there? That second vote on agent comes in the final few hours, but he was at 1 vote for nearly all of phase 2, and most of D1.

Town!You in this proposition basically has a situation where either mafia were never seriously in danger (at which point theorycraft starts to become even mushier), or you have to go farther back to earlier vote tallies and make a case, and even then it's probably...thin. SPF was theoretically in the mix at some point(?) but albeit I was distracted I don't recall much feeling there. Etc.

Now, if maf!ZFR, then the wagons become infinitely more compelling. Any lower than that...eh. Analysis is possible but still probably thin.

I'm curious if HSL is doing his spreadsheet vote tracker.

Nailed the opener D1 too, fwiw.

Going with NAI, but I really don't think this logic/strategy follows your premise.

If maf aren't in immediate danger, low wagons maaaaybe do what you say, though I doubt it, since the ultimate outcome would depend on final marginal votes, not the setup. So maf would be better hanging off to make it happen, if they felt like they could do it, or splitting up with some on and some off (as is typical in a standard voting structure as well).

Worse, depending on the gamestate that strategy also significantly increases the odds of an unpredicted swing onto self or buddy that might force an unnatural slip/response.

Beyond that, it's really most likely going to come down to which players are maf, not some overarching strategy that you can normalize, since Lift strongly implied in the OP there's no daychat.

And again, being off the main wagon(s) is still info. I'll grant it's info most players tend to ignore. But it's info. Sometimes very valuable info.

As a general observation I think you're also waaay overvaluing and overthinking this double-wagon thing in general, esp in terms of D1.

Which question? Why I voted Joe and disappeared? Nothing concrete - like I pointed out before I don't like people that "know" stuff Day One and he "knew" the whole scum team - to me that screams of painting people as scummy. And at the time I voted on his wagon, he had two people on it that I didn't really have a bad read on (flubb and ZFR). One of those people I still consider untouchable for today.

For a Day One vote, that was enough to not be too awful to me. That he turned out town vanilla isn't great, but wasn't bad either.

Slipping it out there just in case. What's your point in repeating it?

No I'm doing a bit of lurking as well. We all sort of are to a degree. SPF even made a pretty solid joke about it (my lurking). He might even be right (about where my first vote will end up).

1. Ok then. You seem really dedicated to this theory. I'll stop trying to convince you otherwise. And hey, I've been wrong before.

2. Well, I mean, you said it ;) It could also just be newbishness of whatever alignment. At first pass it's definitely weird.

Unless I'm missing something, one point of agreement particularly when it comes to the intersection of culture/etiquette/mechanics does not buddying make. If you say something I like and/or agree with, I'll agree with you. If you say something I dislike or just disagree with, I may attack you, or raise an eyebrow, offer a counterpoint or turn it into a joke, in some measure.

Was there a pattern of ZFR trying to woo you that is observable?

3. Not sure how to read this since it's ambiguously parsed, but what the hell: why, specifically, do you think agent and flub are NOT mafia together?

Or are you just saying tepidly that you're not arguing that they are mafia together but they could be and as a result something something?



I shouldn't, but I'll bite since the two paragraphs together are intriguing. Can you elaborate in like, a sentence or two?

And are you talking theoretically, or in this game specifically.

I'll try. Mostly theoretical, but a bit of both. Part of depends of who rolls scum. Part of it depends on the newness of this mechanic - the lynch a single tie part. If it showed up in future games, players should have more well-formed opinions on how best to play it.

As I said, I hadn't really thought about it. During the mulling, I recalled that Hyper had mentioned a related idea in #208 and several questions ensued. If Hyper and ZFR are considering it, others are likely as well - at least the potential.

Hope that made sense.

1. In case...which? Even if ZFR did breadcrumb and/or is a PR, his wagon wasn't a given. And he'd presumably have time to show up and claim worst case. Right? Also, voting someone isn't fishing. ;)
2. heh
3. I know I'm lurking. I only have 13% of the posts and 76% of the words. Gotta start getting my numbers up. (P1na has heart attack)

Re-read reads:

likelier town cluster
cristi
flub

gun-to-my-head town probably
spf - the bad: too much tunneling on ZFR, not enough interaction elsewhere. But no clear wrong notes. Thin but funny at points. Gets town lean for seeming lack of any agenda beyond ZFR (though in this gamestate that could well be intentional) and tone.

neutralon bomb!
HSL (J/k - I actually need to re-read him)

out of the circle of trust
ZFR I don't see a lot of straight out wolfing, but looking at the whole I think I probably overread something that now I'm wondering if it was a derp and just gave him a pass. Right now he makes most sense to me as neutral. I don't like his explanation for town-reading flub (292) and then repeating to make sure everyone saw it (320 - mentioning it in 313 is fairish, though I think he missed the question a bit). Now that at least starts to look like buddying, perhaps.

Also, where P1na gets town pings for both D1/D2 openers, ZFR now has two eyebrows.

Pick 'em: maf / POE / LHF
Ix - based on D1 (4 posts) I actually would've guessed town Ix on tone. The late arrival and lurking are NAI. But that's meta. D2...


Still need:
agent
mud
P1na
HSL

I do take requests!

Fair enough. It didn't seem like a big deal, I just thought it was funny you said you'd decided it was "more likely" on average while identifying two specific cases where it was less likely and wondering how that mathed out.

Here's my current take on the game.

Town or lean-town
bler, flub, p1na, muddy, ZFR

bler - nothing has not changed.
flub - impressed me today in that he is using his vote and is answering questions directly. More so than I remember in a long time. (which also makes me slightly paranoid)
P1na - play feels so pure, gut read
muddy - still like the questions being asked, thought process seems honest
ZFR - had a rough start today, drops him down a bit

Ixam - feels like a mislynch waiting to happen, his posts today are more reminiscent of what I remember - being unable to follow his train of thought. I think he's more paranoid when scum and I don't get a sense of that.

@flubb - do you know what I'm referring to when I say paranoid Ixam? Do you get that sense or do you think it's applicable to scum!Ixam. I'm asking you specifically due to what I remember from the all-mafia game.

Hyper - I don't see anything scummy. I also don't see anything that says town over potential scum,. Playing close to the chest
@Hyper - do you think there is a noticeable tell between your town and scum game? Anything that might help me sort you. I got nothing.

@bler - do you recognize a difference between Hyper's town and scum game?


agent - is still here by POE. I don't have anything new from today,
@agent - is there a difference in meaning between your 'hrm' and your 'heh'?

SPF - one of SPF or ZFR is probably scum, I don't remember anything from SPF other than his suspicion ZFR. Which still worries me.
@SPF - Can you help me understand the problem with "anyone but me"? Is it a tone thing? In general, town should prefer anyone to be lynched but themselves.

SPF is at the bottom of my POE:

Vote SirPrimalform

@bler too.

Wait, wait, wait... I never said mafia would follow a strategy of actively trying to tie two town wagons. However if it's naturally happening, they would be less likely to counteract it.

If votes are (everyone else <3), TownA(3), TownB(4) why would they vote TownB? They might not actively try and get a double-lynch, but they could just leave it as is to make it more likely to happen. No grand double-lynch strategy that requires planning and coordination.

Why? Why not T-T? You've been playing long enough to see plenty of T-T tunneling.

Part of the reason I was thinking SPF is still scum is the way others reacted to our argument. If Mafia see T-T tunneling I'd have thought they'd try to take advantage of the situation. No one did. Until now.

I don't follow you. What's P1na got to do with it?

flub voted me, SPF voted me soon after. If we assume SPF is scum, then scum!flub would mean the two mafia voted on me together very quickly, which I don't see likely.

Precisely. It's when and why he brought it up and the manner in which he did. Seems more like an excuse

Yeah, that's pretty much what I saw. Just wanted to hear from you what you'd seen.

And when you placed that vote, you were so certain that nothing could possibly change that you didn't bother to return to the thread? What made you think Joe "knew" more than he should?

Voting Joe for "knowing" the scum team seems paranoid to me. I wonder if Joe was partially right?

Dangit, I already explained this to Bler. It's a tone thing as well as a when and why thing. Look at ZFR's first post from today (258). The way he launches into a detailed explanation just rubs me up the wrong way, particularly as he's doing this to defend against something which by his own words is idiotic. Why the gymnastics if it's idiotic?

Can you make it again? Your last post was 2 days ago. Please come back to the game.

Consider yourself poked!