I'm aware.
As I said earlier, I'm focusing on that reread over current matters. I don't know how you can be as fast as you evidently are, but for me it's taking up a significant amount of time.

And much though I enjoy sparring with you, that also takes up an inordinate amount of time. I feel reasonably good about me not wanting to lynch you today, so want to focus on my reads of the other three to see who I do want to lynch. Conversely, I don't think it matters all that much if you do or don't believe me and Joe right now; either our flip Tomorrow morning will take care of it, or we can continue the discussion then.

If I have time by the end of the evening, I'll still try to do that point by point response to you. If I don't, you'll have to make up your mind based on what you have so far.

Here come the reads that Vitek thinks I don't have.

Chapter I: SirPrimalform and trentonlf

Vitek and flubbucket think that supplementscene wouldn't self-preserve on a scum-buddy. While I agree that this holds true in general, I'm not so sure it actually applies in this case. Not because supplementscene would be that incompetent or crazy to actually risk the lynch of his scum-buddy, but because that wagon wasn't going anywhere; in spite of a number of voices in favour of SirPrimalform's lynch earlier in D1, there was little to no willingness to do so after supplementscene's claim. So, perhaps he did it to clear his scum-buddy, precisely because no semi-competent mafia would do?
The overwhelming feel and read I have on SirPrimalform is that he's a lazy player (no offence, he admitted as much) who prefers to float with minimum effort, and that works well for him as either alignment. His reaction to my poking seems townish enough, but I've been scum with him, and he's a smart loafer, so don't feel particularly comfortable to rule out that he may be deep wolf hiding behind his laziness.



trentonlf completely changed his playstyle after cristigale's game #46, and his current style lends itself well to either alignment. I've gone over his ISO twice, and tone-wise, his posts and responses/reactions seem more on the town lean all game more or less. But that's as far as I'd go; I'm not ruling out that he's figured out what tells I'm looking for in his current playstyle, and is playing me accordingly, so could be very deep wolf (hiding in plain sight).

Content-wise, there are a couple of things, mostly from Today:
- Post #656: he asks mchack why, since he wanted to achieve a D1 lynch, he voted SirPrimalform and not Vitek who had the second largest wagon at the time. Seems like questioning mchack's actions to justify putting his vote back on the latter, given that mchack had made very clear shortly after he subbed in that he was town-reading Vitek, with no hint of that read having changed by EoD1.
- Posts #884, #888 and #940: note that there isn't even a hint at having me even as a slight town-lean, only that he can't see either of Bookwyrm627 and SirPrimalform as my scum-buddy. The reason he gives in post #940 is that there was no early distancing or need for either of them to bus me because I've not been "under a lot of scrutiny and pressure up to this point" - I've not been under a lot of scrutiny and pressure up to this point; begs the question which game he's playing in.
The phrasing of both posts #884 and #888 is on the lacking side commitment and conviction wise regarding scum-reads and vote, more like he's keeping his options open to vote elsewhere Today, me included if needed, and if he's Bookwyrm627 scum-buddy, starting his wagon, is the perfect example of "bussing your teammate and make it look organic"; he's quite likely anticipating my scum-read on Bookwyrm627, so better be proactive than hoping on the wagon late.
-Post #915: Readily jumps on Bookeyrm627's tin foil hat regarding mafia not having Day-Chat based on supplementscene's play, reconsiders in posts #928 and #930 after a couple of nudges.
- Posts #931 and #953 (2nd point): trentonlf is more than smart and experienced enough to go that route regarding gogtrial34987's play as first time scum, and put up the "I don’t know if his scum game is close to his town game" argument.

If these are town!trentonlf treading very very carefully in a game where the smallest deviation is taken as coming from a scum mindset, and moving one up the suspect ladder very fast, or small scum-tells of a trentonlf otherwise blending in pretty well, I'm not really sure. I'm leaning the former, but wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be the latter.

My main reason for considering a Vitek+trentonlf pair as the probably least likely is that it'd mean that there was no bussing on D1, and I find that hard to believe, but the way this game has gone so far it may be the case after all.

bump to save you 2 minutes

Given that dedo, Vitek and trent ended up taking the same action (not lynching scene), is this actually significant in any way? I get that this is part of your whole back and forth with HSL which is making my eyes glaze over and all, but if you take a step back - are you suspecting HSL (in part) because of this specific thing? If so, why not Vitek and trent? Or also Vitek and trent?

(What did stand out to me on my reread was that there were 40+ minutes between scene's fakeclaim and EoD. That's significantly longer than the impression I was left with.)

Something about how utterly deliberate it was on HSL's part and his reaction to being challenged on it really rubs me up the wrong way. Vitek and trent are definitely not in the clear there but something about HSL's unrepentant stance is wrong wrong wrong.

Chapter II: Vitek

I was town-reading Vitek's slot D1, but I got a bit uneasy with his a bit too undecided/wishy-washy EoD1. His explanation back then was that he needs time to get his reads straight and think about his votes.
Apparently, the length of neither D2 or D3 was enough to get there, in spite him not having much trouble to sort, if not clear, people in the process.
Except when it came to Bookwyrm627's mchack+HSL scum pair (post #552). Then Vitek thought nothing of the mchack+HSL not only being off wagon, but more importantly he also thought nothing of mchack+HSL+supplementscene being all, one after the other, on SirPrimalform's wagon. Apparently, all three scum pushing on SirPrimalform made sense, and only supplementscene pushing on him didn't add up. So all Vitek wanted to know (post #554) was what Bookwyrm627's reads on a bunch of players (mchack, gogtrial34987, HSL, Ixamyakxim, SirPrimalform) were at the time.

But on D4 he's pretty committed to my lynch based solely on the "he's been coaching supplementscene, and giving him outs to save him" argument (posts #584, 843, 846, 886, 919); note: the term's always "appearing" or "seemingly", which apparently is more than enough to push me up to his #1 suspect slot on D4, when a Day before it didn't look the case (post #673).
As for mchack, at first he was having him on the more town side (posts #534, #557), but by #566 he remembered the few iffy things about him, yet would still not vote for him as quickly as Ixamyakxim and flubbucket. And by post #613 he suddenly agrees with trentonlf that mchack's first D2 post didn't feel right and like something planned, when a couple of days earlier the same thing was earning mchack town cred (post #534).

I spent quite some time thinking that he was town-clearing people with logical arguments that scum!Vitek didn't need to clear at the time he did. But looking again, in most cases he did find a reason to cast doubt/backtrack from them later on. For all his reading and sorting people with town and scum points, he's been going after the LHF the whole game. Only exception seems to be his vote on JoeSapphire that he placed after having enough of his interpolations (post #671).

This makes me think we have scum!Vitek doing it to keep his options as open as possible for the mid and end game mislynches, and all the clearing/game-solving appearing as done naturally is in fact based on knowledge of who's not on his team.
The fact that Bookwyrm627 got on his radar only Today, in spite him initiating some interactions with Bookwyrm627, and poking him about some of his posts, seems (even more) odd when I ISO him:
- Bookwyrm627 suddenly appears on Vitek's radar on D4 (post #843), but quickly gets contrasted with me as having been very eager to lynch supplementscene on D1.
- He starts a read on him (post #850) with "more pending", but apparently he haven't yet gotten to the alter as in his next read on Bookwyrm627 he rehashes the same things (post #919).
- He gave him a mangled up endorsement in post #886, which he explained in post #949; reads to me like putting some distance there.
- Bookwyrm627's mentioned as second preferred lynch in post #910, yet then moves behind trentonlf in post #919, because even though trentonlf gives him the most town vibes, he finds the HSL+Bookwyrm627 pair less likely than the HSL+trentonlf one, even though he's not sure why this pairing actually works (posts #843, #919, #949).

Same for trentonlf having climbed up the suspects ladder while being mostly off radar so far:
- The last point from just above.
- He started with the HSL+trentonlf scum pair by pointing to the two of us having "barely any confrontation" (post #846), when his own ISO shows zero confrontation with trentonlf, and the only interaction with trentonlf he initiated was in post #721 which is after mchack's claim, and before the Lovers one, yet suddenly Today trentonlf's climbed the suspects ladder enough to be my scum-buddy.
- He's pushing the "the scum pair was off wagon on D1" narrative, coincidentally(?) following in Bookwyrm627's footsteps (posts #554 and #891).

Looking close(r) at his reads, there's a lack of real commitment or conviction, something he's been accusing me of because I don't use the term "scummy" enough when I question others.
It looks to me like Vitek's pairing his scum-buddy with me but with a preference of lynching me first. And while it carries little weight for anyone else, it reads like going for the mislynch while decently distancing, which gets more evident when he tries to "scum"-read Bookwyrm627, and pair him with me.

Then there are a few other things:
- In post #409 he said "Now we are to be left in uncertainity whether the claim was true and ZFR let scene go unpunished and mafia used it to spread confusion or if it was fake claim", but later in post #673 his position was that supplementscene "doomed himself with that claim when he wasn't modkilled".
- He was the first one to go looking for Lifthrasil's N1 investigation target (post #535); it's interesting that the only possible target he could guess from Lifthrasil's D2 posts was supplementscene. And when trentonlf pointed to a possible breadcrumb (post #560), he disarmed any potential arguments of him being the Godfather by bringing it up first (post #566, which interestingly is prefaced with "I'll be honest").
- In post #557 he's sorting people, and giving gogtrial34987 a bunch of town points for being the second vote on supplementscene's D2 wagon, when gogtrial34987 never voted him on D2.
- In post #843, he claims to have quoted some things he finds off about the Lovers pair, but half of it was actually quoted by flubbucket in his own argument for not buying the claim (post #791).

trentonlf thinks that Vitek's been scum-hunting, and trying to figure out who's lying and why. ISO-ing Vitek, I'm inclined to say that it looks like that, but it's not going much beyond the surface, and there's not much commitment or conviction; looking a bit deeper and at his results of each Day, I'm leaning scum blending in really well.

And based on Vitek's posts, it looks like PoppyAppletree doesn't have such a weak scum-game as she claimed after all.

I never am certain about lynch and always entertain the chance it my be wrong but if I was to let me ever time, I would never get to lynch anyone. If the chance of being right outweighs the potenital for mislynch I am going to take it if I believe it is the right course of action.

You are no Krypsyn, he was much better at heh-ing.

Yeah, you're right. It's always better to not be cautious and post what you think is best course actions for them instead of not posting it and hoping they perhaps don't realise it themselves.

Guilty as charged, I never ISO myself. It is enough to suffer those words once in my head let alone to reminisce them to myself again.
And yeah, I had Dess/Ix slightly towny for scene's attacks against him but he also made some posts that were just not good/scummy and I got sucked by impeding deadline and threat of another nolynch. It was mistake I admit it. I was not the only one to make it, though.

Not true.


Hi, scene.


With my current reads I am left by PoE woth 3 people (Wyrm, trent and HSl), of course I start to suspect them and try to connect them with others even when I was not paying attention to them before.

Yes.

OK, OK, I know I made fun of it earlier but... Heh.
There is not much else that could be said about it.

I see. He only commented but never voted. Thanks for correcting me, I take half of thsoe points back. Sorry, gogtrial.

[url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_55_trouble_at_arstotzkan_boot_camp/post790]not true.

Nah, I am sure Poppy's scum-play is poopy.

I wish I could've given this post the time and attention it deserves, but it's already half an hour later than I set as my deadline for playing. I'm mostly sticking to conclusions, with limited references.

So, what I've been looking for with my reread: connections.
Specifically, with my scum-pool down to four, and two mafia amongst them, there's only six connections to be considering.

Bookwyrm+HSL, Bookwyrm+trent, Bookwyrm+Vitek, HSL+trent, HSL+Vitek, trent+Vitek.
I gave particular weight to D1/D2 interactions, and slowly reduced that weight as D3 progressed, and the shape of the current day started becoming something which scum could take into account.

My conclusions weren't nearly as useful as I was hoping for :| - I kinda feel like I wasted a lot of time for very little reward. Yet, not for zero reward.

Bookwyrm+HSL: On the unlikely side, but purely because of HSL. As this started off relatively late, I can still imagine it as distancing for the end-game.
Bookwyrm+trent: Quite possible; Only superficial interactions.
Bookwyrm+Vitek: Quite possible; Only superficial interactions.
HSL+trent: Quite possible; Only superficial interactions.
HSL+Vitek: My one strong "nope". (HSL is particularly to the point toward Poppy in #81 and #132; Poppy is rather annoyed toward HSL in #88, "I have absolutely no intention of indulging these questions. I consider them petty and frivolous". If they did that as mafia, without preceding night-chat, I'm just so far out of their league that I'll happily eat all the crow that has been served in this entire thread.)
trent+Vitek: On the unlikely side, as it's feeling significantly buddier than I'd expect.

On a per person basis, that gives:
Bookwyrm: 2-3 possible connections - unlikely with HSL
HSL: 1-2 possible connections - not with Vitek, unlikely with Bookwyrm
trent: 2-3 possible connections - unlikely with Vitek
Vitek: 1-2 possible connections - not with HSL; unlikely with trent

I also looked at the scene wagons again:
D1 scene wagon at L-1: JoeSapphire [?/town], gogtrial [?/town], trent [?], Lifthrasil [town], dedoporno [town], SirPrimalform [?/non-mafia?]

D1 scene wagon at End of Day: JoeSapphire [?/town], gogtrial [?/town], Lifthrasil [town], SirPrimalform [?/non-mafia?], flubbucket [?/town], Bookwyrm [?]

D2 scene wagon at End of Day: mchack [town], trentonlf [?], Lifthrasil [town], SirPrimalform [?/non-mafia?], Ixamyakxim [town], flub [town], Bookwyrm [?]

I find it unthinkable for mafia to not be on scene's wagon on D2.
trent and Bookwyrm were both on scene on D1, but not at the same time. They were both on scene on D2.
HSL and Vitek were both off scene on D1 and on D2, where their position on D2 comes with an asterisk.
Purely from a wagonomics PoV, I find Bookwyrm's position on the wagon on both days more unlikely for mafia than trent's position. Bookwyrm's hammer on D2 justly got a lot of heat (mostly from HSL, but several people questioned him about it). I've been looking very closely at scene's D2 posts, and didn't see anything which made me think that mafia-Bookwyrm would've been trying to shut scene up and prevent him from revealing things.

So, both approaches leave me with trent and Bookwyrm as my preferred lynch targets for today.
If trent flips town, Bookwyrm must be mafia (because otherwise the team would be HSL+Vitek).
If Bookwyrm flips town, trent must be mafia (because otherwise the team would be HSL+Vitek).
If trent flips mafia, I could see either Bookwyrm or HSL as his partner, with a gut feeling lean toward HSL.
If Bookwyrm flips mafia, I could see either trent or Vitek as his partner, with a gut feeling lean toward trent.

I've been townreading both Bookwyrm and trent for most of the game. Minor pings and weirdnesses for each, but nothing that really triggered me before. If we weren't where we're now, I still wouldn't be suspecting either of them.

What finally sealed the case for my upcoming vote, was the "unlikely" connection between trent and Vitek. That buddying feeling I was mentioning? It was primarily coming from trent, but very well done.

Prime exhibits:
Also notice the strong dichotomy trent is creating here - "either scene or Poppy". I was first reading this as "protecting" Poppy/Vitek, before I realized that buddying would be making more sense.

So:
vote trent

Chapter III: Bookwyrm627

On D1 Bookwyrm627 mentioned supplementscene's post #63 as weird, and possible TMI, then just kept telling him to read the setup (#post 162), made an indirect mention of supplementscene and his wagon in post #216 and then basically nothing until supplementscene has gotten 4 votes where he's suddenly his #2 favourite for being scum. Right behind Vitek (PoppyAppletree). And while this pair seemed way too easy and convenient to be caught scum, he voted Vitek in post #216, right after debating if it was still worth throwing Vitek and Scene into the thunderdome together, and when it served the team (after the claim, and after dedoporno's comment in post #332) he jumped on the supplementescene wagon.

Now, the big problem here is that mafia must be quite bold for Bookwyrm627 to point a FoS at both his scum-buddies in D1, and it looks quite much even for bold mafia. Do I put it past Bookwyrm627? No, he's bold and cunning, and looking back, there wasn't any real danger at the time, while it served for some nice distancing (Vitek was sitting on two votes since posts #121, Bookwyrm627 became the third one with post #216, and his wagon never got above three votes before being left with the stuck Dessimu one, and I laid out the supplementscene case just above).

Note1: Bookwyrm627 made two comments about PoppyAppletree's setup speculation (post #57 and #162). Others that commented on it were dedoporno and Lifthrasil. PopplyAppletree's ISO reveals that she engaged dedoporno (posts #67 and #71), took issue with Lifthrasil's comments and voted him (post #72), but was completely unfazed by Bookwyrm627's jab, making no comments on it. She also never engaged him outside early RVS (post #6), and the only comment she had on him is that he was "rather lurky" (post #119).

Note2: I'm not ruling out that my post #239 may have had some influence on how he played the rest of the Day, especially if I unwittingly provided cover for scum!Vitek with that post.

In post #241, he says:
and in response to my question (post #254), he said in post #318:
On first read, it all sounds like his usual VT attempt to draw the N1 NK, but then in post #386 he says:
Why say that if he were indeed VT trying to draw the NK? It's not like he had aligned himself with those that believed supplementscene's claim to expect the latter to be the most likely/certain N1 NK, so why out himself, and tell scum "Hey, I'm just a VT, not worth wasting your factional kill one me!"? And even if he had believed the claim, why not keep it up for the N2 NK? Outing himself like that as VT on D1 is completely out of character for town!Bookwyrm627.

Note: one of my first notes was "Bookwyrm627 outed himself as VT with that "won't soak the NK" => very strange, Mafia??".

In post #355 he said:
when right above in the same post:
and shortly before that (post #349):
Apparently, GOG's mobile PM is selectively FUBAR, and that seems quite alright to Bookwyrm627.

Also, on D1 and post #241, he'd easily lynch SirPrimalform. Then the Day ended, on D2 there's no mention of/interaction with SirPrimalform except for that early reprimand about the Doctor's targets, and by D3 SirPrimalform is basically lock-town, apparently because we're locking horns, and I'm the baddy. Nothing else about SirPrimalform's play to point to a town-read.

Bookwyrm627's post #889 is the on_the_surface read of his D2. That's not what he was doing D2, so there's no need to try and reconcile anything with his EoD1. D2 he was laying the ground to get mchack mislynched on D3 as his lock scum around the latter's reasoning for supplementscene's claim being fake (that nitpicky back and forth about supplementscene's claim being/not being an exact/direct copy/paste of the sample VT PM in the OP, gods!, that only served to rile mchack up, and thus make him come out looking the weaker/scummier of the two), then cut the Day short allegedly for wanting to prevent someone getting cold feet, by hammering supplementscene and conveniently being the last one on his wagon, again, and among those on his wagon on both Days. Which he made sure no-one missed (post #552). I've already said how that comparison of D1 and D2 votes reads to me, and I'm inclined to think that his expressed wish to also hammer mchack was to hide behind an alleged desire to always be the hammer.

By D3 and his first post (#552) he's scum-reading me, along with mchack, as supplementscene's buddies, in spite the issue of all three of us being the only ones voting the same player at EoD1, which he overcame quite easily. He also quite subtly started the "HSL was coaching supplementscene" thing, leaving mchack and SirPrimalform to do the most with it (quite easy to anticipate after D2). He quite forcefully doubted mchack's claim (picking up from he left off with that supplementscene's PM quarrel) in posts #702, #707 and #709, and completely ignored trentonlf's post #711, even though he returned and replied to mchack's post #710 in post #727, where he made all possible counterarguments as to why mchack was lying, and would survive N3.

Then there's post #657, and his mock reply to me about the v/v, v/w, v/SK, w/SK cases. It should be more than apparent that this wasn't an analysis of any sort, not to mention that he used the v/v case to push his scum-read on me and town-read on SirPrimalform in a not so subtle way; the former is quite uncharacteristic for town!Bookwyrm627. Now, one could argue that he didn't want to do it because it was me who asked, but in that same post he also asked two questions, plus that "another con" at the end of the post, I don't buy as genuine coming from him (I think I already mentioned that in a reply to mchack). Plus his posts to me from Today just confirms that he simply dodged my request to analyse those cases, as he didn't want to be on record with analysis, but has no problem to talk mechanics and crafting theories on them.

Note: Vitek made a detailed stance on the v/w arguments in posts #224 and #274, and Bookwyrm627 made use of it very nicely, as demonstrated in his post #562.

And so we come to post #891, and the mafia pair is now trentonlf and I, with a very marginal chance of Vitek instead of trentonlf. Because trentonlf found Lifthrasil's breadcrumb (which back in post #562 was a good catch, but now apparently trentonlf's doom), and I "sussed" out the Town Cop (which was initially mchack's twisted argument (post #563), but hey, why not piggyback now that it's convenient, doesn't matter that he didn't blink an eye back then, even though he was supposedly genuinely scum-reading me, and replied to mchack (post #564)). Again, a mafia pair based on the most obvious surface reading of things so they can be linked.

Note: he quite likely exploited town_flipped dedoporno's comment in post #340.

There's a reason I mentioned that town!Bookwyrm627 isn't strong at reading people. And it's that scum!Bookwyrm627 can easily hide behind that, and he didn't let the chance pass (post #835), especially if he's being mostly town-read, which he already did with mchack (post #852), and which he'll do again when I flip.

And gogtrial34987 was right about one thing - one reason they're still alive is because scum count on their votes to mislynch, and I would be the easiest choice at the moment.

Bookwyrm627 first pinged me on D1, and I've been keeping an eye on him; he's kept pinging me. I've seen him go after the LHF, Day after Day, with no actual game solving/scum-hunting; town!Bookwyrm627 may not be good at reading people, but I've never seen it keeping town!Bookwyrm627 from trying and doing it anyway, and what I've seen this game is pretty superficial for town!Bookwyrm627. Then there's also the lack of theorising, and running the numbers, that is also quite uncharacteristic for town!Bookwyrm627.

If the Lovers claim is false, then the town has done a pretty poor job at being town, and solving the game. If the Lovers claim is true, then my strongest scum reads are currently Bookwyrm627 and Vitek; I think there's at least one scum between them (my biggest issue for a Vitek+Bookwyrm627 pair is that D1 FoS on both Vitek and supplementscene, though there's enough stuff that reads like distancing), but I could see any of trentonlf and SirPrimalform as either one's buddy. Perhaps it's gogtrial34987's Bookwyrm627+trentonlf nightmare scenario after all.


The End.

Well you've got it wrong, there was no buddying or protecting of Poppy/Vitek. I whole hardily believe town should always fight with all they have to not get lynched, and I give big town points for people who do fight hard not to be lynched. Last game Lift tried the "Go ahead and lynch me if you think that's what's best" in what turned out to be him trying to play on our emotions of a dejected townie when in fact he was scum, and at that time I told him he had it all wrong and he should be fighting with everything he had not to get lynched instead of giving up. I didn't listen to myself then and it cost us the game, and the last thing I want this game is for me to do the same thing and cost us the game.

Poppy was fighting to prove her innocence and not giving up, I found that along with her overall tone to be enough to convince me she was town. But scene's vote on her IMO was absolutely one of convenience to try and get the person under the most pressure at the time lynched. So in my eyes scene was scummy and Poppy was not. If you want to read buddying or protecting into that than you need to go back and read it again as that is wrong on both accounts.

At the start of Day 3 when Vitek made this comment it made me wonder if Lift had breardcrumed anything and that was when I found that post that he made about Vitek. It jumped out to me because Lift doesn't just easily give up on someone he suspects, he keeps pushing and pushing until he is satisfied that the person really isn't scum, but Lift just dropped his suspicion of Vitek all together with reasoning that IMO would not usually sway him to drop his suspicion of some one. That to me read as him having investigated Vitek and knew he wasn't scum.

Bleh, I hope it posts correctly this time.

I have beardcrumbs if that helps?

Apparently not.
I am glad they improved forums so much while they were re-working front page.
What a shitty thing. But I know this worked fine in the past.

What it was to constitute of is this link:
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_55_trouble_at_arstotzkan_boot_camp/post787

this link:
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_55_trouble_at_arstotzkan_boot_camp/post790

and words "Simply not true".

You tried adding multiple links in same line.
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/multiple_links_in_a_line_workaround

Vote count:

HSL - 2: SPF, Bookwyrm
Vitek -2: Joe, flub
Bookwyrm -1: trent
trent - 1: gogtrial

Not voting - 2: HSL, Vitek

8 players. Takes 5 to lynch.