I'm likely to be gone for the next 24hrs too (though I'll probably visit on mobile). I've asked guys from the observer thread to give votecounts in my absence if any will be needed.

I’m going to be busy most of the rest of this evening. I was traveling most of today and being naughty by posting from my phone while I was driving (yes I know it’s a bad idea :-p), and my evening is tied up with networking with other office managers from around the state. I’ll try to check in when I can, and should be able to post if need to before I go to bed.

As I said to gogtrial, I have had Vitek as one of the more Townier players this game and I don’t see him being scum. I believe gogtrial and Joe’s claim, mainly based on gogtrial’s gameplay as I can’t see him being scum either. Being left with HSL, SirPrimalform, and bookwyrm to choose from I don’t see HSL being buddies with either of the other two so for me I see the final scum being bookwyrm and SirPrimalform.

Vote bookwyrm

Trying to sort out the veracity of the claim, the implications, and how to catch the lie (if it is a lie) before we're out of time.

I had a few purposes:
1) Natural 20 long shot: maybe you and/or Joe slip and change powers around or something.
2) Get the full power set at once in a single post, instead of piecing it together over multiple posts.
3) See what the full power set is, including any parts you might not have revealed yet.

You/Joe have the following:
Mason -> The mod has confirmed to each of you that the other is town.
Day Chat -> You two have a private chat, only accessible during the Day. Flavourfully odd (willing to chat outside your tent, but not after curfew?), but there is other flavour goofiness in this game. Varies from standard C9++ setup.
Lovers -> If one dies, the other dies. Varies from standard C9++ setup.

One thing I was specifically watching for was confirmation of the Mason part of your claim. While Town Mason-Lovers is pretty much strictly weaker than Town Masons, a Town-Scum lover pair (not Mason, as not mod-confirmed!) would be an interesting twist that isn't immediately unbalancing. I can discard the T/S lover scenario though, based on your claim.

I didn't take the time for rereads, instead trying to focus on RL things that I needed to do.

Could just be old news and no one cares. *shrug*

Out of HSL, Trent, and Vitek, HSL is my scum read in a heart beat. I'd probably lean Vitek for town. Trent Believes-All-Claims doesn't have much else memorable about him. SPF probably isn't mafia, but he's on the table for SK.

Part of the distancing the masons did was one mason leaving another mason at L-1 for a significant period of time. Sooo...yeah. Distancing like a mo-fo in that game.

Mchack was the biggest proponent of my inability to be Scene's buddy for basically the reason given here. It gave him dang near schizophrenic fits since he really, really wanted to scum read me, but he just couldn't reconcile mafia!me with my EOD1.

WIFOM, but I find this to be a relevant point. Sure, it could have been planned before D3, but I don't see the risk/reward ratio panning out. They'd have had to plan that bro-call during N2 as well. I do wish they'd breadcrumbed it earlier in the game, though.

I've been mulling over some method of proving the presence of Day Chat, which I'd consider proof-positive of their claim, but I haven't come up with anything that can't be falsified. Gogtrial, if you do have an idea, let me know. If we can verify the two of you, then scum's hiding place gets very, very small.

Mchack dying is kind of curious, considering the higher body count from nailing some mason-lovers.

WIFOM etc since it is coming from me: I'll ditch a scum buddy if I think it serves the team. I don't feel the need to throw them under the bus if I have a reasonable out, and I might try to save them if it isn't going to risk the rest of us too much (or if the reward is worth it).

-I bussed Quadralien because of paranoia when we were close to victory in the Deep Smelly Dungeon game. There was an unknown variable in game, and I was still deep wolf.
-I popped out a Cop fake claim and managed to get the last mislynch (and save Dessimu) in another game; I think one of Vitek's games. Dedo was having none of my crap, but I wasn't targeting his vote anyway.
-I stayed off the Day 1 lynch of a buddy in Lift's all-mafia game. Not like there was any lack of people willing to murder him, though. :)

See my reply above to gogtrial.

So you think SPF and I are Scene's buddies? "With Friends Like These", and all that. XD

My Day 2 play could reasonably be interpreted as me trying to save a buddy until I saw it was impossible, but good luck reconciling that with my EOD1 and being his buddy.

SO! Mechanics and theory-crafting time!

---

First, something short.

We were promised a twist. It is possible that the twist is nothing but an empty promise (the twist being that there is no twist).

I'm inclined to discount this possilibility. I'm trying to out-guess the mod here, but I doubt ZFR would bother saying there was a twist if he was going to just run the standard setup.

---

So, there's a twist. What is it?

Thus far, we have no public evidence of any twist. The Mason-Lovers could easily be the twist, with the Lover part being added to remove the possibility of lynching one to confirm the other. This feels right, since ZFR's main experience with roles is the Mason.

[Counter argument: How could ZFR have known he was going to roll masons when he started the sign up thread?
Reply: He may have rolled the setup months ago, and has simply been waiting since then. We don't know when he actually rolled (assuming he didn't just pick the roles in the first place!).]

Adalia would almost certainly point out the weakness in Mason-Lovers. This could have been accepted as-is, or Town may have received some sort of compensation in return. Without having the PR rolls, we don't know what he did.

Speculation: Lover-Masons may use fewer PR rolls than Masons, something like M instead of MM.

Speculation: Mchack mentioned he apparently ended up targeting himself during N2 instead of Flub. Perhaps Flub, the Innocent Child, was made a little harder to kill (by having any actions targeting him be nullified) while the hidden Masons were made easier to kill. There would be a balancing factor to the Mason-Lovers here by shifting the MMM vulnerability around some.

Wild Speculation: There is a Bus Driver in the setup! It would be a wild card twist, and it could explain Mchack's apparent redirect.

One thing that would cast some serious doubt on the Mason-Lovers is the presence of some other twist. If any of you have been hiding a twist, please come forward. For myself, I have no knowledge of such a twist.

In my mind, the lack of any other twist lends some credence to the Mason-Lover claim.

---

At the moment, between Gogtrial's overall play, Joe's lack of really scummy behavior, and the promised twist, I'm inclined to accept the Mason-Love claim. I might be slightly irked if it turns out to be a fake claim that nets the win, but high risk, high reward.

Right now, I'm left with HSL and Trent as the likely mafia team. Both ditched Scene's wagon D1, and they split on/off on D2. On D3, Trent found the apparent breadcrumb from Lift, and HSL asked about a cop focus from Lift during D2; killing the cop is a good thing for mafia. HSL has been consistently shading me, both explicitly and implicitly, for at least most of D3; sure, maybe that's some OMGUS from me, but I think he's been working to set me up as a lynch candidate. Vitek is the possible third mafioso instead of Trent.

Vitek has been odd this game, not quite as helpful as I expect from Town!Vitek, but he's also made some posts that at least look game-solvey. I had a brief hope-spot here on D4 when Flub talked about having a dream, that maybe the counter-balance to Lover-Mason was another townie getting a simple visitor power. Alas, it appears Vitek has effectively denied that.

If there is no SK, then town is in a much better spot. If there is an SK, then by my view, I've got a 75% chance of hitting any scum at all even if I just vote randomly outside the possible MMM group.

Vote HSL

1. Why no mention of SPF in your analysis?
2. If there is a SK in the game then they are not very good at being a SK because it's been one death a night since the game has started and we know there is Mafia in the game, so I would say there is no SK in the game.

1) I have nothing new to say about SPF, and I've repeatedly stated my position on him: I don't think he's Mafia, but he could be SK if there is an SK.

2) SK could be holding their kill (remember the Poppy/SPF thing about vig not killing on N1?), or there could be kill duplication (mchack soaking two kills), or one kill might not be getting through (Mafia RB, Doctor, bullet proof). I don't want there to be an SK, but lack of evidence isn't proof. Iirc, Flub's milk game had only one kill a night for several nights in spite of there being two Mafia teams and 17 players.

Your SK scenario could be true, but it’s highly unlikely. If someone is a SK I will be very surprised.

As stated, if there is no SK, then Town is in a better place than if there is an SK.

I have never played Crazy Eights and I think I played Old Maid once when I was a kid, so I would be horrible at either it seems LOL

We could just throw rocks at Vitek until he votes, I guess.

Not sure that would work, he's hard headed LOL. And I thought HSL was the reluctant voter

Tell me about it. On the plus side, at least we'd have a chance to throw rocks at him. :D

It's really kind of you all to put the game on pause while I'm ill!

What do you mean that's not why there's so little activity?

Bah!

p.s. I hope Joe comes back soon.

p.p.s. I see HSL has some questions for me, I'm not feeling much like multiquoting so I'll number them.

1. I wasn't one of the people who forced him to claim though, was I? I wanted to lynch you. When I changed my vote, time was running out and there were two viable wagons and I believed mchack less (sorry mchack). When I came back, a third option had appeared and Vitek was messing around so I did what looked necessary to avoid a no lynch. So I'm not sure what your point is when my point was that we should have lynched you yesterday. :P

2. Let's have a look, I guess I missed something.

Oh, heh.

In your scenario, the coaching was so obvious that you were the D3 lynch. But that's not the situation we have, it was a lot more subtle and you might have got away with it. And besides, trying to keep as many team mates for as long as possible is absolutely playing to your win condition. The more team mates you have, the fewer nightkills you need to be able to win and even if you do lose team mates: the later in the game it is, the better.

3. That's a good point. I don't really have my maths head on at the moment, but let's see. There are 8 alive today and if the lovers are falseclaimed mafia then let's assume we don't hit mafia with the lynch. If we lose one townie in the night too, does that give us enough letters to say whether we can possibly have MM or not? I'm not sure because I'm struggling to hold it all in my head at the moment.