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General discussionGOG Mafia #55 - Trouble at Arstotzkan Boot Camp(1211 posts)(1211 posts)
(1211 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted September 15, 2018
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PoppyAppletree: [...] We'd lose an active player we knew to be town, which affects voting bloc/wagon analysis later. [...]
Active player? We're still talking about flubbucket, right?
Posted September 15, 2018
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Dessimu: Hello, scums.
Are you greeting your buddies with this, for some reason?

@flubb and Poppy: a 100% confirmed towny is always dangerous to scum because there is no way to throw dirt at him that will stick. But on the other hand you're right. An innocent child is also a confirmed 'no other PR'. So scum might decide to rather hunt PRs. ... But why is this important? Why speculate what scum might do with a confirmed towny? Why not rather discuss what town might do with a confirmed towny? How can we utilize the fact that we do have a confirmation? I've never played a game with an innocent child yet. Can we get some advantage beyond 'OK, let's not lynch flubb'?
Posted September 15, 2018
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HypersomniacLive: Active player? We're still talking about flubbucket, right?
Hey, even if his play is terrible, him living is helpful purely from a numbers point of view. :P
Posted September 15, 2018
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supplementscene: Also is there an easier way to quote multiple people in a post than copy and paste and then quoting the next person
Sadly, no.

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supplementscene: Right so Flub is confirmed townee and unlynchable
Nonsense. He's perfectly lynchable. He just needs 7 more votes on him.

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SirPrimalform: I find your focus bizarre and I would totally switch my vote to you at this point if I didn't know you were town.
Wuss. ;)
Posted September 15, 2018
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PoppyAppletree: ..............
I'm sure I'll live.
So you're claiming to be town who has no chance of being lynched or night killed......
Posted September 15, 2018
I think flub has taken his "confirmed town" status as a challenge.
Posted September 15, 2018
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PoppyAppletree: ..............
I'm sure I'll live.
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flubbucket: So you're claiming to be town who has no chance of being lynched or night killed......
Cor, man, you could at least put some effort into your accusations.
Posted September 15, 2018
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SirPrimalform: Hey, even if his play is terrible, him living is helpful purely from a numbers point of view. :P
Flub's play is never terrible, just often misunderstood. Either that or he's not drunk yet



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Lifthrasil: Are you greeting your buddies with this, for some reason?

@flubb and Poppy: a 100% confirmed towny is always dangerous to scum because there is no way to throw dirt at him that will stick. But on the other hand you're right. An innocent child is also a confirmed 'no other PR'. So scum might decide to rather hunt PRs. ... But why is this important? Why speculate what scum might do with a confirmed towny? Why not rather discuss what town might do with a confirmed towny? How can we utilize the fact that we do have a confirmation? I've never played a game with an innocent child yet. Can we get some advantage beyond 'OK, let's not lynch flubb'?
You are discounting to easily the power of a confirmed town player. Last game with me having a strong lean that Hunter and Vitek were town and Vitek having a strong lean that Hunter was town we almost won the game, just imagine if I had been able to cop one of them and confirm them as town (mainly Vitek) we probably would have won.

I can think of several other things that can be done as well, but that is opening a discussion that we don't want opened so let's leave it closed.
Posted September 15, 2018
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HypersomniacLive: Vote JoeSapphire
Wow! Things have changed since the last time I played...

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trentonlf: Last game with me having a strong lean that Hunter and Vitek were town and Vitek having a strong lean that Hunter was town we almost won the game ~
Yep, there's nothing better than almost winning! Oh wait...
Posted September 15, 2018
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HypersomniacLive: Vote JoeSapphire
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dedoporno: Wow! Things have changed since the last time I played...
Glad I'm not the only one who noticed that. I'm wondering what that tells us. Mind, we might see an unvote fairly soon, or HSL might just leave that vote there whilst others move onto more serious votes.

I think the only setup detail I'd like to analyse at this point in time is how many scum we might have so as to aid in shortlisting. The lowest possible amount in C9++ is two, which is substantially unlikely; the highest it can go would be four, with the most likely being three. Given that four is possible, I don't think anyone should discount a read outright early on just because they can't fit it into a list of three suspects. Since flub is an Innocent Child, we're either MXXXXXX or MMMXXXX, with the former being the most likely. The median values for Townie are TTT, TTTT, and TTTTT, making three scum most likely with a possibility of four.

So, our most likely scenarios are:

MTTTXXX: 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer
MTTTTXX: 2 Goons + Roleblocker
MTTTTTX: Goon + Godfather, Serial Killer

My money is on MTTTXXX, but that's pure speculation. Functionally, I think we should assume a serial killer, and we'll see how that goes tonight. For now, that's all I really want to say about this.

Also, add me to the list of hoping we don't have a slow weekend.
Posted September 15, 2018
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PoppyAppletree: My money is on MTTTXXX, but that's pure speculation. Functionally, I think we should assume a serial killer, and we'll see how that goes tonight. For now, that's all I really want to say about this.
What's the point behind all this exactly?
Posted September 15, 2018
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PoppyAppletree: My money is on MTTTXXX, but that's pure speculation. Functionally, I think we should assume a serial killer, and we'll see how that goes tonight. For now, that's all I really want to say about this.
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dedoporno: What's the point behind all this exactly?
To look busy.
Posted September 15, 2018
Hi,
Since a few people yesterday asked me a questions about the setup, in the interest of fairness I'm posting here the answer they all received: It's a C9++ with a twist. Whether this techinically makes it semi-open or not is completely up to you.

(this is not saying you shouldn't ask me questions via PM, but sometimes the answer you receive is the answer you receive).
Posted September 15, 2018
I think I remember trentonlf once saying that it is unwise to try and figure out the game's core dynamics and the build of a setup in purpose of gaining advantage. It just screws up the game experience.

Vote: PoppyAppletree

My experience: things hardly ever are the way you assume them to be. Assumptions are misleading.

On a side note: does anyone else it funny how an innocent flubbucket child made it into elite special forces commandos?
Posted September 15, 2018
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Dessimu: Hello, scums.
In jest or a double bluff perhaps? IE a townee would never dare say this so I'll say it.

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supplementscene: Come on lurkers step out of the shadows. If you don't I'll have to vote for one of you
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gogtrial34987: Any early thoughts to share on the people who're not lurking? Any interactions that seem somewhat artificial to you? What do you think about how helpful Poppy is with answering your questions? Must be nice to have a scum buddy coaching you like that, no? Or do you think she's pocketing you?

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PoppyAppletree:
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gogtrial34987: @Poppy: And how about the flip side? What do you think of scene's questions? This is like the third game in which he's going full on newbie. Does that still ring true to you?
Not too much to go on. Dessimu was probably joking. He's used humour in his last 2 posts but in real life humour is often used to hide the truth. Joe voted for me and I tend to find people who attack me slightly suspicious but then town are meant to thoroughly investigate everyone and make sure they get a lynch.

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flubbucket: Why would mafia surely kill a confirmed town with literally zero power??
To muddy the water perhaps.

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SirPrimalform: Because a confirmed townie gives the town power, we know who not to vote for. Sure, it's probably not worth them killing you on the first night, but you can bet that you're not going to make it through to the end game, just like they'd want to get rid of cop-confirmed townies.

I find your focus bizarre and I would totally switch my vote to you at this point if I didn't know you were town.

Slap flubbucket about a bit
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flubbucket: However that wasn't what was said.

It was stated "Depending how mafia choose to play with it" and "likely to be killed sooner or later."

Doesn't sound like town to me. It sounds like scum attempting to look town.
As @Lift & @Sirprimalform pointed out it is good analysis. I agree the wording sounds slightly scummy but perhaps your seeing something that isn't there. My initial blind vote is looking like it's between Joe, Poppy and Dessimu. Poppy seems very helpful and friendly so lynching her would be a little mean anyway. So now I'm torn between Joe and Dessimu unless I see further developments. The early rounds in Mafia are really completely luck based though and I'm not sure the whole game isn't to a degree.

Vote Desimu now in case I lose internet this weekend but remain open to a change of vote down the line.
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Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #55 - Trouble at Arstotzkan Boot Camp(1211 posts)(1211 posts)
(1211 posts)