Was helping some friends move, just got home. Doubt I'll catch up today, most likely tomorrow. Will see if game can be broken down to chances or not.

I just posted this in my Lover's Chat. It will describe why I think talking in that chat is a bad idea at this point in the game:

There are four Lover's pairs. Two of the pairs have a Mafia. Thus, it is 50% chance that one of us is Mafia. Knowing that I am town, it weights your chances of being scum to more than anyone else individually. Funny how that works.

One could note that, since I know my own alignment as town, it actually makes the probability of you being scum to be less than others (since each other group has two chances to have scum, while this one now only has one). However, taken individually, you still have a higher chance that everyone else in the game for me.

In summary. Our Lover's group is less likely to have scum that any other group, from my point of view. However, you, personally, have a greater chance to be scum that anyone else for me. Funny how that works.

((I even left the typos in :P))

Yeah, the above is worded in a messy way. But, since I couldn't edit the QT, I left it as is for posting it here. To understand my rationale more fully, this link might be helpful. It describes the Monty Hall problem, and I think it might be useful given this set-up.

I did the math out for the probabilities, and this is how it breaks down if one is Town. I've checked it over several times, but I keep feeling I am missing/forgetting something. Let me know if I made a stupid error.

The chance of your own Lover's Pair to contain scum is:

1 - (6/7 * 4/5) = 31.43%

Since you know that you are town, this means that your partner is 31.43% to be Mafia.

The chance of other Lover's Pairs containing Mafia:

1 - (5/7 * 3/5) = 57.14%

This means that each person in the other Pairs has a 28.57% chance to be Mafia, individually.

---------------------------

So, you are always better off voting for a Pair that is not your own. However, you are better off trusting what is said in the Game Thread over the Lover's Chat for the time being, all else equal.

If I'm to believe everyone so far then I already know 4 town players; me, Krypsyn, cristi, and Hijack, with cristi and Hijack being a pair.

If we list our pairings into the four groups and we are to believe cristi and Hijack then two of the last three groups have a scum player in them. Even if we lynch one of the those groups and it is two townies that's ok because it is then 4 on 2 and the last two groups would have to include a scum player so town would win by lynching someone from the last two groups each day.

So to me the question is do we believe cristi and Hijack. Because if one of them really is scum and we focus on lynching the last three groups scum will automatically win.

I told you! The pairings were rigged. :P

Ikr?

I don't get it. How the hell do I always do it? Smh. Must be some mad snk skillz.

Definitely not. You can't be sure of either of our alignments. No bueno. We gotta scum hunt the classic way.

I'm thinking it makes sense to share who the pairs are as I think that will be helpful to town but not so to scum (if my thinking through it has been accurate and I'm not missing something.) If someone seems to be unreasonably protective of someone who isn't who they are paired with it might be telling. However, I don't want to go blurting out who my lover is because it's a new relationship and we're not even comfortable holding hands in public yet. (read: I don't know if it could be too premature to take that step and want to hear what people's pros and cons of sharing the info or not.)

I like the percentage analysis and Monty Hall problem, krypsyn, thanks, it's certainly helpful and interesting! However, you voted me and that hurts my feelings! *cry* What did I do?!

I see one problem with my math already.

This has a bad assumption: that your partner won't ever be selected as Mafia.

Thus, it should actually read:

The chance of other Lover's Pairs containing Mafia:

1 - 2/3(5/7 * 3/5) - 1/3(5/7 * 4/6) = 55.56%

This means that each person in the other Pairs has a 27.78% chance to be Mafia, individually.

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However, this is all total gibberish anyway, if this is taken as a pure Monty Hall Problem.

The odds before knowing your own alignment that each Pair, including your own, will have Mafia is 50%. Thus, everyone has an equal 25% chance. However, if you are town, then you are revealed as having 0% chance to be Mafia. Each Pair still has a 50% chance to contain Mafia, cumulatively, so your partner must then make up the difference in your Pair. This makes his/her probability to be Mafia 50%.

Nothing.

I see. I gotta agree on that.

So you better watch out,
You better not cry.
You better not pout,
I'm telling you why:

Vote Count:
Hijack: 1 (Liftrasil)
Liftrasil: 1 (CSPVG)
Jmich: 1 (Trent)
Trent: 1 (Cristigale)
Drealmer: 1 (Krypsyn)

Not Voting: JMich, drealmer7, HijacK

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

I mean, tell people there's an invisible dude in the sky making the rules of the universe and they will believe you without doubt. Tell them the paint is wet and they have to touch it just to make sure.

I'll take you on a grilled cheese sandwich if you're offering.

Damn, Kryps! It's taking you a while to make me that sandwich.

I've got .... nothing. ;)

I'm off to see a film today, so I won't be around until later tonight.

As for current conversation, though: I was reluctant to reveal the lover pairs at first, but having thought of it, I don't think that it could do too much harm. It's likely, as someone has already pointed out, that the mafia already know all the pairings in anyway, so we may as well.