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General discussionGOG Forum Mafia #33 - Christmas in the Threads(333 posts)(333 posts)
(333 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: What are you taking about? I didn't "bite" on anything. I already said I thought you and Kryspsyn are the scum.
Yeah, you did. Re-read your posts and reason for that.
Posted December 17, 2015
Ah, I see trenton is at L-2. Since i think he bit my trap and he's scum, I shall:

unvote CSPVG
vote trentonlf

Worth a shot to have at least 2 wagons.
Posted December 17, 2015
Unvote: HijacK
Vote: Lifthrasil
Posted December 17, 2015
Crud. Missed HijacK moving his vote.

Unvote: Lifthrasil
Vote: HijacK

*Hippity, hoppity*

Look, I am the town bunny! Or frog. Or toad, Or grasshopper. Or cricket. Or kangaroo. Or probably many other animals that hop that I have forgotten. Pick one! I am partial to bunny, because people tend to think they are cute, so it makes me look way more town psychologically. As always, I am seeking to be obvi-town here, and image is everything (Andre Agassi taught me that in his commercials for Canon in the 90s).
Posted December 17, 2015
We're sort of out of RVS (although what quite a few of you seem to be suggesting is that, by using 'breaking theory', we remain in one long RVS), I'm going to go ahead and Unvote: Lifthrasil.

Since I'm not entirely happy with that sort of direction, though (even if the math checks out), I'm going to Vote: HijacK for a reason. I find him to be, at this stage, the scummiest of all participants in the game (this is usually happens at some point during any given game) because of his immediate reveal of information, before we'd all had time to discuss whether or not we should do so, and his general demeanour (the excessive joking and the lack of any 'rudeness' which I consider a HijacK trademark), which I think of as his, "So town, guys," mode.

Lastly, Krypsyn's hopping about to get reactions is interesting, but I'm just going to shrug and say, "Yeah, that's Krypsyn," for the time being.
Posted December 17, 2015
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CSPVG: ... what quite a few of you seem to be suggesting is that, by using 'breaking theory' ...
It isn't a breaking theory, because it doesn't suggest one right answer for everyone. Just showing the odds from each player's point of view does not a breaking strategy make.
Posted December 17, 2015
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Krypsyn: It isn't a breaking theory, because it doesn't suggest one right answer for everyone. Just showing the odds from each player's point of view does not a breaking strategy make.
Do not beset me with reasonable points made reasonably, foul creature!

I thought that the conversation was trending towards simply voting randomly, much like in my Assassin in the Palace game, so I've simply been calling it 'breaking theory'. I have used scare quotes, though, and besides that, saying, "Odds from each player's point of view," isn't half as sexy as saying 'breaking theory.'
Posted December 17, 2015
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CSPVG: snip
And here's the last sucker to bite.

Watch list for town: Lift, trent, cspvg.

Kryps is just weird. Watching him should be a thing every game regardless of whatever.
Posted December 17, 2015
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CSPVG: I thought that the conversation was trending towards simply voting randomly...
I have been attempting to thwart this.
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: I wasn't looking at the percentage of a partner being scum or not, just at couples. I am not disagreeing with you about individuals.
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JMich: Sure thing. If you are town, the chances of you being in a scum pair is 1 in 3. If you don't know your alignment, the chance of you being in a scum pair is 1 in 2.
No. There are 4 teams. If you are town, you have 2 possibilities of being in a town-scum team and 2 possibilities of being in a town-town team. I.e. your chance of being in a town-scum team is 2 in 4 (= 1 in 2). Not 1 in 3. How do you get that 1 in 3 possibility?
Posted December 17, 2015
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Lifthrasil: How do you get that 1 in 3 possibility?
Post 132
Posted December 17, 2015
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Lifthrasil: How do you get that 1 in 3 possibility?
By running all the combinations. There are 90 possible ones. For every specific townie, there are 30 combinations in which he is paired with one of the scum.
So, a townie has 1 in 3 chance of being paired with scum, a random pair has 1 in 2 chance of having a scum in it.
Posted December 17, 2015
A not-so-subtle hint from the observers thread ;-)

Aaaaaand... a Vote Count

HijacK: 4 (Lifthrasil, Krypsyn, trentonlf, CSPVG)
trentonlf: 3 (cristigale, JMich, HijacK)
Krypsyn: 1 (drealmer7)

Not Voting: [no one]

With eight (8) alive, it takes five (5) to Lynch.
Closest to Lynch is HijacK, at L-1.
Posted December 17, 2015
Oh snap. I forgot 5 votes were needed for lynch. Never mind! :D That screws up with my calculations. Back to the drawing board.
Posted December 18, 2015
I'm very unsure what to make of HijacK's behavior at this point. It is absolutely different from the 2 other games I played with him (in which he was scum in both, well, we were all scum in the last one of course, but, yeah), but, I'm not sure how to judge it because of that. Does that mean he is actually town? Or does that mean he's changed his tune to not be easily read as scum? Nothing has pinged super-scummy to me about him EXCEPT for his quick assertion for all pairs to be shared, but coming to agree with that myself, I'm not sure I can hold that against him.

To me, Krypsyn still seems more sure to be scum than HijacK, but, other than trent I don't see anyone else very suspicious of him, or at least, not willing to reveal their suspicion of him, and the case for HijacK is compelling if looked at from a certain angle.

Should I take the cue from my lover? Lift, if I disagree with you, will I be sleeping on the couch tonight? :þ

I feel we're kind of at a point in this day that the only way to move things forward is to lynch and then analyze it, but, I think we need to hear from cristigale first. This setup is one to be very cautious in I feel because if we're wrong it really hurts us.

Let's assume we lynch hijack and we're right that he is scum. That then makes me ask what krypsyn is doing voting for him considering I find him most scummy by far. I suppose that could be the ultimate mind-game of krypsyn+hijack playing together, because rule # "13. All players on the winning team win, regardless of whether they are dead or alive." HijacK can still win if krypsyn wins/lives and krypsyn will be more likely to secure a win if he sacrifices his own scum-buddy. It could have been the plan all along, them figuring their chances of both surviving given the lover/suicide setup is not very likely and so they went about it to use that to their advantage to secure the win. I honestly think this is the theory I'm most comfortable with at this point in the game from all the reads I've been making.

Let's assume we lynch hijack and we're wrong and he is town and cristi also flips town. That still leaves me thinking krypsyn is scum, having engineered a town-town double-death on D1. Not too keen on this happening and so I'm cautious.

SO, I feel most comfortable with krypsyn at this point and want to hear what cristi has to say about the state of her lover and what others think about my posed theories before the day ends.
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This is my favourite topic
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General discussionGOG Forum Mafia #33 - Christmas in the Threads(333 posts)(333 posts)
(333 posts)