This is only correct if you know nothing about any of the pairs. Since you do know your alignment, the chance of hitting scum is 1 in 3 if you are voting for yourself or your partner, or 5 in 9 if you are voting for someone else.

Consider this: There are 3 boxes and one of them has a prize. The chance of picking correctly is 1 in 3. Then, before choosing a box, someone tells you that box 2 is empty. There are still 3 boxes, one of them has the prize, but because you know something, the chance of picking correctly is now 1 in 2, not 1 in 3. Same holds true for the possible combinations here.

But since I don't know CSPVG's alignment it doesn't matter. If I knew as a couple that we were town or scum then I would agree, but all I know is my alignment. We could be a town couple or a scum couple depending on what CSPVG is.

I like how hard you try to look towny or to scum hunt in a purely chance based game. Especially in the first day. Oh dem feelz. :D

Do you know yours? If yes, it matters. If not, then yes, it doesn't matter.

Yes. 1 in 3 chances you (knowing your alignment only) are a scum couple, 2 in 3 chances you are not. Not 1 in 2.

Do ask if you need the math part explaining it.

You are looking at it as individual alignment, same as Krypsyn is. It's all about the couples not the individuals when it comes to a lynch. 4 couples, 2 are town couple 2 are scum couples. When a town and a scum are together I am calling it a scum couple. So since I don't know CSPVG's alignment there's a 1 in 4 chance we lynch scum today.

Yes.

Also yes.

Agree.

Possible. Haven't done the multiple people math.

This does not invalidate that for each of the townies, the chance of his/her partner been scum is 33% and not 50%, nor does it change that the chance of a pair other than his been a scum pair is 5 in 9.

It does, and JMich and I have both described why. It is not worth belaboring any further, however. At least not for me.

Sure thing. If you are town, the chances of you being in a scum pair is 1 in 3. If you don't know your alignment, the chance of you being in a scum pair is 1 in 2.

Oh. Forgot to add:

Unvote: drealmer7
Vote: HijacK

Hmmmm, is that L-2 or L-1?

Nevertheless, things are going as planned. After the lynch, if cristingale is not scum take a close look at the wagon. :D That's the best and kinda only info town has to get to scum. Voting patterns and reasons is pretty much what's needed for that W.

So far the 2 suckers that bit are trent and Lift. Kryps is just chaotic, but he may be hiding under that and use it as excuse.

Vote Count

trentonlf: 2 (cristigale, JMich)
Lifthrasil: 1 (CSPVG)
CSPVG: 1 (Hijack)
Krypsyn: 1 (drealmer7)
Hijack: 3 (Lifthrasil, Krypsyn, trentonlf)

Not Voting: [no one]

With eight (8) alive, it takes five (5) to Lynch.
Hijack is closest to Lynch at L-2.

What are you taking about? I didn't "bite" on anything. I already said I thought you and Kryspsyn are the scum.