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General discussionGOG Forum Mafia #33 - Christmas in the Threads(333 posts)(333 posts)
(333 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted December 17, 2015
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bler144: Must be why HSL keeps his top-secret.
I'm genuinely weary of people with hidden wishlists now. It makes me wonder, what are they hiding? Like Krypsyn. He keeps his pretty private.
Posted December 17, 2015
I'm still not sure why everyone is making the math complicated, and it's making a pointless tangent.

4 couples
2 couples have scum in the pair

There's a 50% chance the pair you are in has a scum Lover, no matter who we lynch today there's a 50% chance a scum will be taken out of the game.

The vibe I am getting is that the scum are Hijack and Krypsyn so I will vote to lynch any of the 4 people from the pool of Hijack, cristi, JMich, or Krypsyn.
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: There's a 50% chance the pair you are in has a scum Lover
Not quite.

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trentonlf: no matter who we lynch today there's a 50% chance a scum will be taken out of the game.
'Tis a different story.
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: I'm still not sure why everyone is making the math complicated, ...
Because knowing your own alignment makes it complicated.

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trentonlf: ... and it's making a pointless tangent.
Perhaps, perhaps not. It can be helpful to sort out priorities.

For instance, it is less likely for one's own pair to contain scum, but more likely for your own partner to be scum. It is an interesting conclusion, in terms of dynamics, at least to me. It is in both you and your partner's best interests to survive (regardless of alignments involved), but it is also more likely for your partner to be nefariously manipulating you than any other player in the game.
Posted December 17, 2015
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Krypsyn: it is also more likely for your partner to be nefariously manipulating you than any other player in the game
*goes into deep thought*
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: I'm still not sure why everyone is making the math complicated, ...
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Krypsyn: Because knowing your own alignment makes it complicated.

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trentonlf: ... and it's making a pointless tangent.
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Krypsyn: Perhaps, perhaps not. It can be helpful to sort out priorities.

For instance, it is less likely for one's own pair to contain scum, but more likely for your own partner to be scum. It is an interesting conclusion, in terms of dynamics, at least to me. It is in both you and your partner's best interests to survive (regardless of alignments involved), but it is also more likely for your partner to be nefariously manipulating you than any other player in the game.
You keep focusing on individual alignment and then mixing it with pairs. I am looking at it as 4 couples, no individuals. Individuals don't matter.
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: You keep focusing on individual alignment and then mixing it with pairs.
Because that is how the moderator determined things.


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trentonlf: I am looking at it as 4 couples, no individuals. Individuals don't matter.
Which ignores that you, as an individual, knows your own alignment. The usefulness of this is obvious, is Mafia, but the math was to show that it is also useful knowledge as town.

Honestly, though, I don't care whether you agree with my math or not. My main concern was trying to figure out where I went wrong, after I posted my calculations.
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: You keep focusing on individual alignment and then mixing it with pairs. I am looking at it as 4 couples, no individuals. Individuals don't matter.
There are 90 possible combinations for this setup. In those 90 combinations, there are always 2 groups that contain scum. The chance that your group contains scum (assuming you are town) is 1 in 3, not 1 in 2. Why? Because you are town, thus the odds are skewed.

So yes, if Vitek is choosing a pair, then it's a 1 in 2 chance said pair contains scum, but if a player chooses a pair, the chance is not 1 in 2, because he already knows one alignment.
Posted December 17, 2015
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trentonlf: I'm still not sure why everyone is making the math complicated, ...
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Krypsyn: Because knowing your own alignment makes it complicated.
No, it doesn't. Because the distribution is not entirely random. We know there is no scum-scum pair. So we have two town-town pairs and two town-scum pairs. If you know you are town yourself, you have a 50% chance to be in a town-scum pair and a 50% chance to be in a town-town pair. I.e. in two cases your partner will be scum and in the other two cases (s)he will be town. All possible cases covered. I.e. the likelihood that your partner is scum if you yourself are town is 50%. (And incidentally, the likelihood that your partner is scum if you yourself are scum is 0% )

I'm going to wait what my partner has to say and how he reacts to my suspicion. But I am still inclined to switch back to HijacK.
Posted December 17, 2015
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Lifthrasil: The second person is unfortunately my lover. Very reluctant to share who the lover pairings are or to share information at all. Very much promoting the 'wait and see' game strategy, that doesn't help town much in this game. And very much absent - true, that all might be due to playstylen and RL issues, but still I am suspicious of him. Especially considering that, as elaborated, each pair has a 50% chance of containing scum and I know that I'm town. So that gives a 50% chance that drealmer is scum.
A lover's quarrel indeed. I feel like you misunderstood me, or simply weren't listening fully.
I was not reluctant at all to share the pairings once I thought it through. The only thing I was hesitant of was sharing without thinking about it first. You want to condemn for that?! After I thought about it, it made sense to do, absolutely, I thought, and I even said as much to you. You think I'm "very much promoting a wait and see game strategy" ? How am I "very much promoting it?" More like I'm just not the type to go charging blindly forth into a game that I'm still relatively new at compared to everyone else. Getting ahead of myself is my worst enemy, I think, so I am a little cautious. What exactly is wrong with that? Why does that make me scummy to not want to be in a rush? Can you explain the logic to me? Regardless it's still not "very much promoting" by any means.

Yeah, I haven't been around very much. RL shit. Really shitty shit. I'd rather not bring it into the game. Same as last game. I play this to distract from the horribleness that is life going on with me at the moment, and I'm going to be condemned for that? Maybe I shouldnt' have signed up to play, but it seemed like a good setup for me to be less-involved in without being too detrimental to my ability to play (8 people means less catching up, way simpler setup, everything, so I was like "yes, I can play this to my desired level given what is going on with life.")

Anyway, I'm certainly ready to vote now (almost did last night but wanted to sleep+reflect on it first, as, I see no usefulness in rushing things.)

I'm still finding krypsyn to be the most scummy, by far. He seems like he has very much tried to get multiple "targets" (as he would see them) to "stick "and accumulate votes. Vote-jumping galore. I find his "figuring out" of the math and then saying "oh no wait" and the continuings that have happend with that to be fishy as I'm not sure what purpose it really serves, he's making it more complicated than it needs to be. I no longer see it as helpful at all, but simply trying to confuse the situation/get the focus away from the task of trying to figure out who is scummiest (himself.) He is very much making LAMIST posts and then trying to dissolve any suspicion they might bring by drawing attention to them as LAMIST posts. If he calls himself on how much he is trying to look town, no on else can do it, and it kind of "cuts it off at the pass."

JMich I asked you how you were feeling about your lover, I'd still like a response.


vote krypsyn
Posted December 17, 2015
For the purpose of a lynch individual alignments don't matter.

Krypsyn and JMich are one person
Me and CSPVG are one person
cristi and Hijack are one person
Drealmer7 and Lift are one person

Why is because when one person is lynched the partner dies too. So two couples are scum couples and two are town couples. There's a one in 4 chance to hit scum when a lynch happens. If we hit scum today then tomorrow it's a one in three chance, and if we don't hit scum today then it's a two in three chance of hitting scum tomorrow.

The only time individual alignment matters is when determining if half the people left alive are still scum or not, if yes then scum wins.
Posted December 17, 2015
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Lifthrasil: . If you know you are town yourself, you have a 50% chance to be in a town-scum pair and a 50% chance to be in a town-town pair. I.e. in two cases your partner will be scum and in the other two cases (s)he will be town
You don't. There are 30 cases your partner is scum and 60 cases he is not. I could write down the full pairs if you want me to, but I did do the math.
Posted December 17, 2015
Oh noes! It seems I am the prettiest princess on the stage. With the runner up being Krypsyn. Pls. That crown will be mine. It has Swarovski crystals. Oh, so shinny!

Let's see how many suckers bite now. :D
Posted December 17, 2015
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drealmer7: JMich I asked you how you were feeling about your lover, I'd still like a response.
I don't. I view this as pure chance based, and playing it as such. Voting for my pair means 1 in 3 of hitting scum, voting for someone else means 5 in 9 of doing so. I won't be voting for me or Krypsyn during day 1, and will have to do the numbers again once we reach day 2.
Posted December 17, 2015
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drealmer7: ...
Allright. For now I will buy your reasoning for the waiting. Yes, you said as much in the lovers thread, but the problem is, scum would hide behind such a reasoning too. But then again I can understand cautious play as well from town. And I don't want to hold RL issues against you.

So I'll switch back. All the joking does not help HijacK to look townier. Therefore:

unvote drealmer7
vote HijacK
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Forum Mafia #33 - Christmas in the Threads(333 posts)(333 posts)
(333 posts)