Well, trent has collected 3 votes without a good motivation. Could you all please explain, what your motivation for voting trentonlf is?
Or, JMich, was it just convenient that someone had 2 votes and you try to get a train going?

For me the only two players I am a bit suspicious of are HijacK ... he's too friendly again and up to now each time he was friendly, he was also scum. ... But then again, I am always suspicious of HijacK for some reason so I may not be the best person to judge him.

The second person is unfortunately my lover. Very reluctant to share who the lover pairings are or to share information at all. Very much promoting the 'wait and see' game strategy, that doesn't help town much in this game. And very much absent - true, that all might be due to playstylen and RL issues, but still I am suspicious of him. Especially considering that, as elaborated, each pair has a 50% chance of containing scum and I know that I'm town. So that gives a 50% chance that drealmer is scum.

Therefore, since no one else seems to want to vote HijacK:
unvote HijacK
(but as soon as others see him as scummy too, I might jump back on him)

and I'll move out of RVS with:
vote drealmer7

(now this will lead to quite a lovers drama, I guess)

10 minute breaker, because I happened to notice.

Unvote: HijacK
Vote: drealmer7

Vote Count

trentonlf: 2 (cristigale, JMich)
JMich: 1 (trentonlf)
Lifthrasil: 1 (CSPVG)
Drealmer: 2 (Lifthrasil, Krypsyn)

Not Voting: drealmer7, HijacK

With eight (8) alive, it takes five (5) to Lynch.
trentonlf and drealmer are closest to Lynch at L-3.

Oh, hey, if anyone is curious why I have voted the way I have, I'll break it down.

Before the game I decided I would vote for cristigale first thing, and leave it there until she voted for someone. So, I did.

I then moved my vote to drealmer7, because he hadn't voted yet. I left it there until I got bored.

I moved my vote to trentonlf, because that is where cristigale had set her vote after I asked (demanded?) that she place a vote on someone. I wanted to judge her reactions. It was possibly informative.

When JMich voted for trentonlf, putting him at L-2, I moved my vote to HijacK to make another competitor wagon at L-3 to see what people would do. I chose HijacK because he hasn't yet vote, among other reasons.

When Lifthrasil moved his vote off HijacK, I moved my move to drealmer7 for similar reasons as I moved my vote to HijacK moments before.

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Dangit! I am just so onbi-town this time around. Giving my reasons and rationalizations without being directly asked. Yay me! :)

Ooooooh daaaayuuum daaayuuum!

Lift sweepin' in with the break up! Will the couple get over their differences and sort it out? Or it will crash and burn worse than a Taylor Swift song that hit that One Direction? Stay tuned!

Vote CSPVG (Chinese Secret Police of Video Games?)

Beware of the one that speaks softly and carries a big stick.

Well, since the new Star Wars movie got released.

Obi Wan Kenonbi-town?


I always carry a big stick. Can't you see how many casualties I'm making?

Sure.

Yes. I know my alignment, and that means that randomly voting has a 5/9 chance of killing scum. Since I highly doubt this game will be down to slips and all that, I decided to go with the quick route.

If you are town, your chances of being paired with scum are 1 in 3, not 1 in 2. For the chances to be 1 in 2 you would have to be unsure of your alignment.

What is your math on this? I agree with the 5/9 for other pairs, as it is the same number I got, but I am not getting the same number for the player in one's Pair. Your number seems cleaner (1/3 vs 31.34), so I am inclined to believe you are right and I am wrong, so tell me where I went wrong, please.

The way I got my number is thus:

Each person has a 1/7 chance to be Mafia on the first roll, since your own identity is already ascertained. This means there is a 6/7 chance for your partner to be town on the first roll.

If the first roll indicates that your partner is town, he/she then has a 4/5 chance of being town on the second roll, since one pair will have been removed from the pool.

Therefore, the chances a partner is town is:

6/7 * 4/5 = 24/35 = 68.57%

In all other cases, one's partner must be Mafia:

100% - 68.57% = 31.43%

What did I miss?

There are 90 possible combinations (scum 1 with any of the 6 possible townies, scum 2 with any of the other 5 townies, other 4 townies can be arranged in 3 pairs. Total number 6*5*3). For townie A then, there are 15 combinations where he is paired with scum 1, and 15 combinations where he is paired with scum 2. 30 in 90 combinations have townie A partnered with a scum, so 1 in 3.

I think your math is off because you go with 1/7 for being scum, while there are 2. Shouldn't that be 2/7 for scum, so 5/7 for town?

I realized wishlists are quite telling of one's character. Fascinating.

Must be why HSL keeps his top-secret.

I was separating the rolls. Since if one player is found to be Mafia, it necessarily means the partner of the player must be town, given the set-up. So, the pool available to be Mafia will drop by 2 in the second roll, if it is anyone but one's own partner.

However, given the way the partners were assigned (after determining who the two Mafia must be), I think your way is correct. That was my problem; I was not perfectly mimicking the methodology of the moderator.

So, to use math to fit your method of determining the chances one's partner is town:

5/6 * 4/5 = 2/3 = 66.67%

Mystery solved, thanks.

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My error was due to a bad assumption. The way I did my math, I assumed that the moderator would pick pairs first, then assign who is Mafia. It is a doubly bad assumption, because it was stated earlier in the thread this this was not the methodology.