Part 3

So, a few posts later after the reveal...okay Yogs didn't explain it, now a vote in post #876

I find post #881 talking to Drealmer. Read it, I read like, "Drealmer, haha, you think us scum would actually NK you? We could get you lynched in a heartbeat..." followed by a number of posts talking trash to Drealmer. Nothing really about this great revelation...

Then Post #912, no time to post now, please don't lynch me until I come back or the "Oh shit, I better think about this" post...

One more inconsequential post, then Post #948 where now the claim is "I'm Spartacus" as if the whole soft-claiming and pointing out a possible Yog slip was some pre-thought out strategy. That somehow risking Yog and his power role is worth it under this scenario. Like, huh?

Then you have the post #953. the "I'm town", it's so unfair, you know scum only has to kill power roles, it's so demoralizing. I with you all here post.

So post #956 Vote change. I mean, "supposedly" risk the game over exposing what can only be a scum or power role slip, but hey, let's vote Flubbucket! That's a winner!

Post #960 Let's see...oh right, what everyone wants...more power role talk. Let's slip in your conversation to Flub talk essentially "You wouldn't happen to be the Exorcist, would you?"

Post #993 Well, no traction with Flub, let's try Babark vote because a lot of people have him on their list. Venue #3 in Adalia's "I'll Avoid Getting Lynched" Tour (Yogsloth, Flub, Babark)

Post #1009 Vote Hopping Tour Stop #4 JMIch - Maybe he will save me...

JMich drops his vote...so Post #1020 Tour stop #5 back to Babark!

And then finally Post #1047 as the wagon stagnates, the Adalia attempt to lead the sheep...his scum team (Flub Drealmer and me) Add two more names to the scum list, so I guess 6 scum.

Off his list, maybe meaningful... HSL, Trent and ChickenWings.

So many attempts to discuss power roles, 5 vote hops and somehow Adalia's wagon is weakening? I don't get it. I don't see it. There is nothing town here. There is clearly a desperate scum trying to find any out to not get lynched.

If Yogs is the last power role, we've probably lost. I don't mind talking about it, because there is no way scum didn't pick up on it. I'm going to take back my "unlikely Yog and Adalia are on the same scum team" it seems odd Yog isn't voting Adalia anymore and Adalia isn't voting Yogs for some inexplicable reason. The more I look at it, the more this looks like it could be a pre-planned "distancing" that blew up in their face. I'm not sure Yogs is scum, but I'm now darn sure Adalia is.

Adalia claims now he has Yogs "reasonably scummy" but really? You possibly outed a power role all to have Yogs now your 4th or 5th most likely to be scum? Something stinks here.

On the plus side, if Yogs isn't our Exorcist (and isn't scum), scum will be wasting a NK on him and it buys us an extra day.

And with all of this vote hopping and finger-pointing, I think we can gain a fair bit of insight into who might be Adalia's scum buddies...

Case closed.

seconded

there's posts like this that scream scum-tells to me. we can't afford to mislynch a vanilla townie? ummm yes, yes we can absolutely. vanillas should be throwing themselves in front of every lynch and NK if they can at this point

making my case for trent tomorrow:

I'd like to draw attention to this post in which trent posits that both adalia and JMich are fishing for the last PR and then , why he believes adalia is town is beyond me, unless I suppose he thinks adalia is dumb enough to soft claim, I don't think he thinks that. [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/forum_mafia_game_40_wilderberry_hollow/post834]what's this about? and why isn't trent voting adalia?

gotta go, that isn't nearly as organized as I'd have eventually made it, but, yeah, you get the idea, connect the dots is a fun game!

There were two topics addressed to me...

Drealmer who was surprised to see I have doubts and thinks he is somehow "confirmed town" for being off HijacK's wagon. Being off a wagon is not proof. My post was not about you specifically. It was about the fact that this is a strange game where I find no one even nearly confirmed town. I honestly don't know why you were not lynched day 1. It could be you are scum. Or not. I find your play consistent to your meta, but you are not nearly confirmed in my book. Nor are the other 8 alive players for that matter. Each of them I can find very valid reasons how they might be scum.

I may have to revisit this given Adalia making things crystal clear. I'll admit it, I was having some doubt, but with how quickly Adalia dropped his concern of Yogs after his "tooth-gnawing" "slip reveal", it became clear this was positioning of some sort and not town scum hunting.

The other topic was Flubbucket. I don't want to over speak about it. It's just I recall one post in Day 2 that felt town to me. It's not conclusive at all. And it only moved him off the immediate suspects list, but...

One thing I look for is "town tells" of a sort. What I'm looking for is something unique, interesting and useful observations or advice that truly might help town. Not big splashy things, but "nice things" "helpful things". Between all the bickering, and back and forths and over analysis bordering on nitpicking, I read Post #581.

Very good, very useful, helpful. Felt like good town advice. Had him very slightly leaning town all from that one post which stands out from the rest of the meh. Actions speak louder than words. If I see a scummy action, that one post won't mean a thing, but for lack of anything else, yeah, ever so slightly town.

more on yogsloth

At first I was smoke-screening for him thinking it was possible he was the exorcist, which is what I think he wanted us to think with his "multiple PMs" post, but if he was town he'd be all over adalia (KILLKILLKILL SOMEONE ANYONE, except my buddies!) at this point and him coming off that wagon and all the hoohaa he's done since makes him much more likely to be scum, imo (he at first figured adalia was going to roll hard, how many days ago now? 3? so he was comfortable with the bus to help clear himself on a sure-scum, then he realized it was stalling and figured he'd help it stall more and see if he could shift it to one of the scum-chatted "potential PR" targets.) Also, that "multiple PMs" post upon reflection is a little toooo obvious. If he were the PR, he'd play it safer and smarter and not dropped that like that. Plus, when he came in as the replacement, he was first on the a4plz wagon, probably hoping that it was a quick easy lynch, regardless of the not-very-likelihood of it being a PR. As soon as he saw it wasn't going to be a thing (even I wasn't voting a4plz at that point, after my 48 pleases the end of the day before) he moved on.

I don't know what to make of HSL. Not on adalia's wagon makes anyone fishy to me, honestly. Plus he's been pushing JMich hard (proving to be more of a distraction distraction from adalia AND trying too hard to twist JMich into a future dead pretzel) on things that I think are just tooo thin and nit-picky. Regardless of who is what, JMich, the way you deal with all of that from HSL is a testament to your level-headedness and patience, and I'll try to learn from that.

With the undisclosed powers of the spectres and them seeming to have quite a bit to contribute, I'm reconsidering the likelihood of 4 Evil to be more likely than before, and I see a few other things that back that up [1 mentioned before the 4 Good "lives" because of the herbalist, plus, adalia's lynch seems to be waayyy harder than it should be to achieve.])

before I get a bunch of flak for "townies throwing themselves in front of every lynch" - that was certainly a bit of an overstatement, but I think my point was clear enough

You do know that I like to post half baked ideas, that I later reject as I view more angles, right? Like the plan I pondered at the beginning of D2?
Depending on what needs to be revealed when I post the hypothesis, I may delay posting it until I've seen a few more things. If all the information is already public, I do not delay in thinking it.

First instinct was to trust the spectres as being town. Second instinct was to assume someone was playing us for a fool. So the straight answer to your question is yes. I found it more likely that she told the truth and that she lied.

Two last things.
1) I will refrain from answering you any more until you place a vote. For three game days now, you've been questioning people, painting them as scummy, yet still refuse to vote for them. That does start to look like scum mudslinging everyone they can.
2) Vote adaliabooks. Even if it's highly unlikely he's the last scum, he still is the scummiest looking one for me.

Is this really that hard to understand?

I die, we lose.

One more townie dead leaves 3 scum (presumably) and 6 townies.
So one in six chance of hitting correctly (ignoring any tells).
Then it's 3 v 5. Even if you manage to hit scum tomorrow then they have a 1 in 5 chance of hitting the exorcist.
Next day it's 2 v 4, hit scum again and they have a 1 in 4 chance.
And that's assuming you can even hit scum correctly, which is highly doubtful. The chances of you hitting scum 3 times before they manage to find the exorcist are really slim, ergo we lose.

It's not just me, the same goes for any other townie.

I'm done, if I get back to L - 1 I'll hammer myself because clearly no one is interested in lynching anyone else and I really want to prove my point, and I can't be bothered arguing any more.

I'm still curious to hear about this....although it is a slightly moot point.

Well, isn't THAT an interesting line?

"Vanillas, suicide into the lynch so scum don't get hit!"
Yeah, it might be something of an overstatement.

Alternative scum team: Drealmer, JMich, aaaaand...HSL?

Possible. I thought about putting Trent in that third slot; what do you think of that?

So no explanation on how you can try to out a possible power role that might also be scum, get no response, but now don't think he's that scummy because he's not voting you. Because you "can't be bothered arguing anymore"...

You used the words "definitely lose", while we don't know what else spectres can do to help us. You've implied two different explanations now for why you've said that (odds are so against us, and "I'm Spartacus" as if soft claiming was a plan of sorts to mislead our enemy). Your story has changed, not to mention you quickly backpedaled and claimed vanilla, ruining the second one, so I guess it's back to the first? Too many conflicts, no doubt you are scum.

The odds may be poor, but we are still here, I think your elimination is the first step in grasping victory out of defeat. What's your better idea? One of your 6 different scum targets which you've been bouncing between for the last couple days? But really it's anyone but you. right, because you are claiming you are so town.

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I also think we aren't necessary dead yet. Stranger things have happened. And frankly, I think there is a lot useful analysis based around Adalia. Who and how seriously he tried to get after certain people. If you believe it was serious, they are town and not his scum buddies. Are there interactions that come off as "play-acting" or "distancing"? Those might be scum buddies. Looking at how people have chosen to join and leave his wagon, may give us clues. I think this is something definitive we can get behind. There is hope yet.

As to the petty squabbles. Personally I find nothing useful over the spectre business. It's white noise. I get that it appears to some that people may have had information ahead of time (like JMich). There seems to be a straight-forward explanation, it's not hard to assume spectres cannot be NK'd and I believe that's what he thought.

I get that to some on the other side, they think this is scum trying to push them like HSL. There is a straight-forward explanation to that. Scum in this game are cultists, so to him, he didn't think it was such a no-brainer.

I don't see a smoking gun anywhere on any side, and while it's possible some of the participants are scum, it's also possible its town arguing town. Don't lose the forest through the trees.

Not to math geek, but first, even granting that you are town and day 1 is a miss (which I don't think it is) and your scenario...
The odds they miss 3 times in a row are [odds of missing in each day] = (4/5)*(3/4)*(2/3) = 2/5 or 40%. 40% is not a definite loss.

And our odds are far better than that when we lynch our first scum today...

Looks like Yog, Trent, Babark, and HSL don't want Adalia lynched.

So I guess it is all you, Cristi, if you're willing to go for Adalia. My vote has performance problems, or I'd L-1 him myself.

Blech.