Posted December 11, 2019
JoeSapphire: "Statistically and mechanically?"
I might as well have just kept quiet the whole game mightn't I?
This is a clear appeal to emotion. You are right that purely by appearances Pooka looks more off than you. But we can't disregard the rest. Also, aren't you the one saying that we shouldn't lynch Pooka? Even though you still haven't explained what it is, that makes you so confident that he is town. If you have a good reason to town-read Pooka, it would be good to share that reason. I might as well have just kept quiet the whole game mightn't I?
... and no, the reason you gave in post 753 is not a good one. There you wrote that your instinct is to vote RW, because dedo and I prefer Pooka. However, you acknowledge in the same post that dedo can't be scum and that my play wouldn't make sense as scum. ... so, because one sure and one likely town players suspect Pooka, your instinct tells you to vote someone else...
And now, after it boiled down to you or pooka, you are suddenly back to the RW+me scum team. ... which really is the only option for you if you want to avoid a Pooka lynch without sacrificing yourself. RW is very unlikely scum alone, after all. So you have to bundle someone with him to justify your vote and it can't be dedo. So you have to go back to targeting me, even though you earlier said, I repeat, that my play wouldn't make sense then. So, again the question, what is it, that makes pooka so much townier in your eyes than me. Why are you so dead set on saving him? You even say you would bet money on him being town, even though that is forbidden. But you don't explain the source of your certainty.
Of course if you really were convinced that he's town, you would have to try to save him at possibly LyLo. But I rather suspect, that you want to avoid bussing him because one more mislynch would win you the game.
@RW so your theory is, that scum made an error in estimating dedos towniness and therefore targeted agent? That would fit Pooka, but it wouldn't fit Joe. I don't think Joe would underestimate dedo. Or was he counting on being best buds with dedo and wanted to keep him around for that? Possible.
So, I get back to my feeling that it's Pooka or Joe. I feel more strongly about Pooka, but dedo is right and Joe has more possible combinations in which he can be scum.
This is the last day where dedo can participate before the deadline and with him being the only cleared player, he should be able to participate. Therefore I cast my vote:
Vote Joe
By the way, RW, I strongly disagree that Town shouldn't cast the first vote at LyLo. If that was accepted as rule, scum wouldn't dare to vote either and we would lose due to no-lynch. No, Town has to be very careful, but in the end we have to make a decision. Also I do agree with Joe, even though he is likely scum: if you have anything else to share about your role, please do so.
@dedo and RW: I am willing to switch to Pooka, if you prefer that. But I'm only on occasionally today and only on mobile. So I may not be able to participate in further discussions as much as I would like to.